X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Tape Tells All: Has Justin Fields Finally Arrived?

justin fields fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

Justin Carter breaks down Justin Fields' Week 8 game. Has the Bears quarterback emerged as a fantasy QB1? What's his fantasy football value moving forward?

Welcome back to Tape Tells All, the weekly series where I look at film and data for something that happened in the NFL this week.

This week, we're looking at the recent play of Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields. After a choppy start to his NFL career, is Fields finally positioned for success?

He's now finished as a top 12 fantasy quarterback for four consecutive games, including back-to-back finishes as the QB5. He's the only player with top-five finishes in both of the last two games. Is Fields now a top fantasy quarterback?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Justin Fields Background

As a rookie, Justin Fields wasn't great. The Ohio State product—who I thought then and still think now was the second-best QB prospect last year behind Trevor Lawrence—started 10 games as a rookie, throwing for 1,870 yards with seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He completed 58.9% of his passes and also added 420 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Looking at PFF's weekly fantasy finishes data from last year, we see that Fields had some flashes, with four weeks as a top 10 quarterback. His best weekly finish was QB3, and in the last five games he played, only once was he not a top-10 fantasy QB. So while his rookie campaign started out poorly, Fields started to put some things together.

This year began similarly. Fields finished outside the top 20 at the position for the first four weeks of the season, but now he's finished top 12 every week sense. So, what happened?

Well, over the first four games of the year, Fields was averaging 16.8 pass attempts per game, along with 8.5 rushing attempts. In the last four, he's averaging 23 pass attempts and 10.5 rushing attempts. So...it's kind of just a volume thing, in a sense. The Bears have gotten more comfortable letting Fields throw the football over the last month.

Chicago still ranks near the bottom of the league in passing play percentage, but they aren't going out there and having their quarterback throw just 11 passes now. The way that Fields' usage has trended has really helped.

But it also helps that he's been more efficient. Over the last four games, Fields has completed at least 60% of his passes three times, with two games over 70%. In the first four games, he completed 60% of his passes once, and was never over 70%. He seems to have improved his accuracy, which keeps the chains moving and ups the potential volume.

He's also a major threat with his legs, which ups his fantasy floor by a good bit. Fields has 47 or more rushing yards in six consecutive games. The Bears keep designing run plays for him, and it's working so far.

 

Justin Fields' Week 7 and 8 Performances

Let's focus specifically on two weeks of Fields' performances here, since he has back-to-back QB5 finishes.

Week 7 @ NE: 13-for-21 for 179 yards, one touchdown, one interception; 14 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown
Week 8 @ DAL: 17-for-23 for 151 yards, two touchdowns; eight crarries for 60 yards and a touchdown

The first thing you might notice: he's been a top five fantasy QB despite throwing for under 200 yards in both of those games. I find that to be a good sign: it shows that his rushing yardage is a huge advantage. With the addition of a real No. 1 receiver at the deadline (or, at least, a guy who you can pair with Darnell Mooney and have two solid No. 2 guys), the passing yardage should improve. I mean... by acquiring Chase Claypool, maybe this won't happen as often going forward:

There's Fields throwing a perfectly placed 53-yard touchdown...if the receiver hadn't dropped it. And sure, maybe he would have been tackled at the two and it would have been a 51-yard non-touchdown, but the point still stands: his receivers are leaving fantasy points on the table. Claypool should help with that.

Digging into some advanced box scores from these two weeks, we can also see some good signs. In the win over New England, Fields had 0.23 EPA/play, while the Patriots two quarterbacks were at -0.35 and -0.45. And Fields also added 0.38 EPA/play on his rushing attempts. Against Dallas, his EPA/play fell to 0.08, which is pretty much right in the center of where EPA/play numbers have gone league-wide.

Fields has really been pushing the ball down the field this year, with an overall aDOT of 9.21, which is the highest of all full-time starters. That aggressiveness isn't necessarily paying off just yet, as he's completed just 632 air yards, which ranks just 27th in the NFL. But again...Claypool's addition helps with that.

Maybe I'm overstating the importance of Chase Claypool here. But Fields is playing the exact kind of football that makes a fantasy QB1: he throws deep and he adds a huge amount of value with his legs. If he can start to hit on those deep balls more consistently, that would be a nice boost in value.

This play above wasn't from the past two weeks and it was called back by penalty, but it's a good look at just how dynamic Fields is as a runner. He's already one of the NFL's best running QBs, and now we just need to work on the passing.

 

Justin Fields Fantasy Value

The rushing upside alone would make Fields a borderline QB1 play every week, even if he was still struggling to throw and was getting under 20 attempts per game.

But with the Bears making a concerted effort to help Fields out—both from a volume perspective and from a personnel perspective—I think the ceiling for Fields has jumped.

At this point, I'm comfortable ranking Fields as a top 10 quarterback ROS. The rushing production has been consistent. The passing performance is improving. He's throwing a touchdown on 4.4% of plays this year, up from 2.6% last year, and while he's only at 149.9 passing yards per game, we don't need Fields to throw for 300 yards for him to have fantasy appeal.

Going forward, I'd obviously take Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes as my top four QBs ROS, not necessarily in that order. Then, I think there's a Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray tier, but then you get to a pretty big group of players who might be interchangeable. Basically, there are six QBs who I'd definitely take over Fields, and then there's Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa and Fields rounding out the top 10. Fields offers rushing upside that the others don't really, making him the upside play out of that group.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF