Week 1 Outliers Analysis - We Must Overreact!

September 16, 2020

Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Odell Beckham, Nyheim Hines, Robby Anderson, and more.

In Week 1, the quarterback position was rather stable as Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray finished inside the top-five. Through Sunday's games, Gardner Minshew II finished as QB12 which surprised most, while Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes underwhelmed just a little, finishing as QB2's. Tight end was a little less predictable as David Njoku, Logan Thomas and O.J. Howard all finished inside the top-10. Some of the usual studs such as Zach Ertz, Darren Waller and George Kittle were each involved in their respective offenses, but had modest days and finished as TE2's.

At wide receiver, Davante Adams led the way with 41.60 points, hauling in 14 of his 17 targets for 156 yards and two touchdowns. John Brown was thought to be the forgotten man in Buffalo after the signing of Stefon Diggs, but Brown was the recipient of 10 targets, finishing as a top-15 receiver. One of the main offseason discussions at the wide receiver position was whether Cooper Kupp would play enough snaps to be a viable WR2 if the Rams deployed 12-personnel a majority of the time, and the answer was yes, as both Kupp and Robert Woods played at least 84% of the snaps in Week 1.

Josh Jacobs was dominant in Week 1, toting the ball 25 times, scoring three touchdowns while hauling in four passes for 46 yards, finishing as RB1 on the week. Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Nyheim Hines and Malcolm Brown rounded out the top-five running backs for Week 1. Joe Mixon's performance for the Bengals was underwhelming, but he did carry the ball 19 times against a dangerous Chargers Defense which is a good sign for his future outlook. Week 1 is now in the rearview mirror, and now we need to look ahead and evaluate how to move forward to Week 2.

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns

Week 1 Stats: 10 targets, 3 catches, 22 yards

Odell Beckham Jr. was clearly Baker Mayfield's favorite target in Week 1 with 10, while Jarvis Landry received six targets. Beckham did have a couple drops, but in fairness to him, Mayfield was inaccurate at times against the Ravens and he was interfered with a few times by Marlon Humphrey, which took away a few potential big plays.

Bottom Line: I know that this may be an unpopular opinion, but Beckham is a buy-low candidate. I understand the common narrative is that Beckham simply isn't the same and he won't do well for the Browns, but his performance would have been much better if not for the pass interference against him, and you need to remember the Ravens have a very good defensive backfield. Give it a little more time before you give up on Beckham.

Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 1 Stats: 5 targets, 5 catches, 47 yards, 1 TD

Keelan Cole was clearly the Jaguars No. 2 option in the passing game in Week 1, playing 66% of the Jaguars snaps, compared to 84% for D.J. Chark, 62% for Laviska Shenault Jr. and just 32% for Chris Conley.

Bottom Line: Keelan Cole was relevant in 2017 and then he fell off the map when Blake Bortles began to struggle and never regained his form. Cole is worth an add in deeper leagues and may have some value down the stretch. Stay tuned and monitor the Jaguars snap counts.

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

Week 1 Stats: 8 targets, 6 catches, 115 yards, 1 TD, 2PT

Robby Anderson exploded in Week 1, but a majority of his production came on his 75-yard touchdown. On that play, Anderson caught the ball about 26 yards down the field, the Raiders defensive back took a poor angle trying to meet Anderson at the ball, completely missed, and Anderson took the ball 49 yards after-the-catch for the touchdown. At first glance you would think that this is a typical boom-or-bust performance from Robby Anderson, coming through because of one big play, but that wasn't the case. Anderson played on 82% of the Panthers snaps, was targeted eight times in the game, compared to nine for DJ Moore and eight for Curtis Samuel.

Bottom Line: In shallower leagues, if Anderson is on the waiver wire, he is definitely worth a bench spot. If you are in a tough spot in Week 2, Anderson could serve as your WR3 or a flex, but personally, I want to see how Teddy Bridgewater distributes the ball in Week 2 and see a larger sample before I trust him in my lineups.

Mark Ingram II, Baltimore Ravens

Week 1 Stats: 10 carries, 29 yards

J.K. Dobbins was a Week 1 darling for the Ravens, scoring two touchdowns, but if he didn't score twice, his day would have been sub-par, rushing for just 22 yards on seven carries. Mark Ingram had an underwhelming day, but he still led the Ravens backfield in carries with 10, compared to seven for Dobbins and just four for Gus Edwards. It's early, but this may be a committee moving forward as Ingram played 21 snaps, Dobbins played 23 snaps, and Gus Edwards played on 15 snaps.

Bottom Line: The Browns were pretty tough against the run in Week 1 and the Ravens ran just over 50 plays in the game which doesn't bode well for volume running. The Ravens backfield is shaping up to be somewhat of a committee which is concerning, but as of now Ingram still looks to be the leader of that committee. Hold steady for now, but if Ingram has a big game in the next few weeks you may want to consider selling high.

Peyton Barber, Washington Football Team

Week 1 Stats: 17 carries, 29 yards, 2 TD, 1 target

After Adrian Peterson was cut from the roster, most thought that Antonio Gibson would be the primary ball-carrier for Washington. That was not the case, Bryce Love was a healthy scratch, and Peyton Barber toted the rock 17 times.

Bottom Line: Barber is not an exciting player and he's only rostered in 3% of Yahoo leagues. While carrying the ball 17 times, Barber averaged just 1.7 yards-per-carry. You know what you're getting with Barber, and you should only add him to your roster if you're absolutely desperate and don't mind playing him and hoping for a touchdown.

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

Week 16 Stats: 24-of-42 passing, 270 yards, 2 TD, 1 carry, 2 yards

Carson Wentz was supposed to tear up the Washington defense in Week 1 with all of the new receiving threats on the Eagles, but that didn't happen. Wentz was constantly under duress by the Washington front seven and looked to be somewhat out of sync at times.

Bottom Line: Wentz is a high-end quarterback with solid weapons, unlike 2019. It's early, and you should remain patient, because once Wentz settles in he'll be great.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals

Week 1 Stats: 5 targets, 4 catches, 33 yards

As I speculated in my wide receiver matchups piece from Week 1, Tyler Boyd saw a lot of coverage from Chris Harris Jr. in Week 1 which gave him trouble. On another note, Burrow was under duress for much of the day, taking unnecessary risks, and at times he was trying to be a hero. While Burrow was a little shaky in his first start, that's expected, and he did show glimpses of his potential, showing us why he was selected first overall in the NFL draft.

Bottom Line: Hold steady on Tyler Boyd if you have him on your team, and if the Boyd-manager is restless, consider buying low. This was likely Boyd's toughest matchup of the season.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Week 1 Stats: 10 carries, 60 yards, 1 target, 1 catch, 6 yards, 1 fumble lost

Nick Chubb played on just 48% of the Browns snaps in Week 1 finishing as RB47 on the week. Chubb was never really able to get going in this one as the Ravens led for the entire contest, forcing the Browns to throw the ball more than they would have liked. The Browns also turned the ball over some, including a Baker Mayfield interception and a Chubb fumble which likely cost Chubb some rushing volume.

Bottom Line: Nick Chubb had a difficult matchup and the game script didn't help. This was likely Chubb's worst game of the season and he's a prime buy-low candidate.

Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts

Week 1 Stats: 7 carries, 28 yards, 1 TD, 8 targets, 8 catches, 45 yards, 1 TD

Nyheim Hines was very involved in the Colts offense in Week 1, scoring a touchdown on the ground and through the air. Hines had a role from the start of the game, but when it was all said and done, Hines and Taylor both ended up with 15 touches.

Bottom Line: Hines has a role in this offense. We spent the entire offseason speculating whether Austin Ekeler would continue his 2019-form, but we should have looked to Hines as Philip Rivers' new Austin Ekeler. Hines is rostered in just 19% of Yahoo leagues and he's a must-add in PPR leagues.

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team

Week 1 Stats: 8 targets, 4 catches, 37 yards, 1 TD

Logan Thomas has been an intriguing player ever since he entered the league out of Virginia Tech and attempted to switch from quarterback to tight end. The stars aligned in Week 1, Thomas finally got his shot in Washington, playing 74% of the snaps in Week 1 and appears to be involved in the passing game.

Bottom Line: Logan Thomas led all Washington tight ends in snaps and looks to have a legitimate role in the offense. That being said, Thomas should only be started in deeper leagues or if you're desperate, as there's still plenty of viable, more proven options out there.

Jordan Akins, Houston Texans

Week 1 Stats: 2 targets, 2 catches, 39 yards, 1 TD

As always, Jordan Akins looked great when he had the ball in his hands. Akins is very athletic, and he played 81% of the offensive snaps compared to Darren Fells who played on just 42% of the offensive snaps. Akins came through because he scored and although he played on 81% of the Texans offensive snaps, he has teased us before and let us down after blowing up the week before.

Bottom Line: Deshaun Watson simply doesn't throw the ball to his tight ends with regularity. Unless you're extremely desperate at the position or in an extremely deep league, Akins should probably remain on the waiver wire unless he earns a more consistent role.

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