Surprise Fantasy Football Studs, Duds - Real or Mirage?

October 13, 2021

Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Kadarius Toney, Myles Gaskin, Hunter Henry, and more.

Week 5 of the NFL season is now in the books and as expected Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady, Josh Allen and Dak Prescott finished as QB1's. On the unexpected side of things Davis Mills shocked the world and threw for three touchdowns against the Patriots to finish as QB-6 and Jameis Winston carved up Washington for four touchdowns of his own to finish as QB-5. Kyle Pitts finally broke out with 119 yards and a score to finish as TE-3 while Mark Andrews was a Monday night hero with two scores of his own finishing as TE-1. Travis Kelce and Dawson Knox shined once again while Darren Waller had a down game with just four catches for 45 yards.

Mike Williams was targeted 16 times and turned that into 165 yards, two touchdowns and a WR-1 finish. Davante Adams, Ja'Marr Chase, DK Metcalf and Antonio Brown all had big games finishing as WR1's which is familiar territory for them. Kadarius Toney had another solid week finishing as WR-7, Marquez Callway finished as WR-9 off of a desperation hail Mary at the end of the first half and Robert Woods was fed the rock finishing as a top-12 WR for the first time this season.

Cordarrelle Patterson finished outside the top-10 this week, but he did score over 15 fantasy points and touched the ball 21 times which is a lot for him. Derrick Henry touched the ball less than 30 times for once (29 carries) but he still finished as RB-1 and Alvin Kamara got back involved in the Saints passing game to come in at RB-5. Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt finished inside the top-10 against a Chargers defense that gives up serious fantasy points to running backs and with Saquon Barkley out with an ankle injury, Devontae Booker was an RB2. Now, let's take a look at some of the outliers from Week 5 and evaluate whether they're worth a spot on your roster or in your starting lineup.

Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers

Week 5 Stats: 21-of-37 passing, 177 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT, 2 carries, 10 yards

The Eagles pass rush had Sam Darnold very uncomfortable in Week 5 and as a result, Darnold had a season-low in yards (177) and yards-per-attempt (4.8). The Eagles defense has gotten a bad rap so far this season, but in reality they've been brutal against the run, surrendering the third-most rushing yards in the league (710) while giving up just 6.6 yards-per-pass which is fourth-best in the league. Darnold ran into a tough matchup, had a bad day throwing the ball, didn't come through with his legs, and as a result he also didn't come through for fantasy.

Bottom Line: The Vikings defense struggled to start the year, but they're starting to round into form. The Vikings have given up less than 10 fantasy points to Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff over the last two weeks, so using Darnold against them in Week 6 may be a little risky.

Davis Mills, Houston Texans

Week 5 Stats: 21-of-29 passing, 312 yards, 3 TD, 1 carry, 2 yards

Davis Mills played well in the Texans Week 5 loss to the Patriots but a majority of his fantasy points came on two plays. Mills' longest pass of the day came on a throw to Chris Moore where there were two Patriots defenders near him after he caught the ball, but one fell down and the other overplayed him on the sideline which allowed Moore to run free down the field for the score. Mills also connected with Chris Conley for a touchdown off of a flea-flicker which had the Patriots defense fooled.

Bottom Line: The Texans play the Colts in Week 6 who have been starting to figure things out on defense a little bit, but they were absolutely torn apart by Lamar Jackson in the second half of Monday night football in Week 5. Mills is a viable option in 2-QB leagues but other than that you would have to be really desperate to use him.

Kadarius Toney, N.Y. Giants

Week 5 Stats: 1 carry, 7 yards, 13 targets, 10 catches, 189 yards

Kadarius Toney played just 54.4% of the Giants offensive snaps in Week 5, but he was ejected from the game in the fourth quarter which cost him some playing time. Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Kenny Golladay and Saquon Barkley were all injured before or during the Giants Week 5 game against the Cowboys and Toney was the best playmaker left standing which resulted in a massive workload.

Bottom Line: Kadarius Toney is an absolute baller and as long as he remains in the Giants starting lineup he can be trusted in your lineups. Monitor Toney's situation though, because he may be suspended by the league for throwing a punch on Sunday.

Chris Moore, Houston Texans

Week 5 Stats: 5 targets, 5 catches, 109 yards, 1 TD

After playing just two offensive snaps through the first four weeks of the season, Chris Moore played 62.7% in Week 5, taking over for the recently-released Anthony Miller. Moore had a 67-yard touchdown catch where he caught a deep throw from Davis Mills where the Patriots defenders misplayed him and he was able to run for about 41 yards untouched for a score.

Bottom Line: Chris Moore looks to have taken over as the Texans slot receiver, but this isn't exactly the best offense to support multiple fantasy-relevant wide receivers. Brandin Cooks is the only wide receiver on the Texans worth rolling out there in your lineups on a weekly basis. Moore is worth a stash in very deep leagues but you can't trust him in your lineup until he gets volume on a consistent basis.

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns

Week 5 Stats: 3 targets, 2 catches, 20 yards

The Cleveland Browns put up 42 points against the Chargers in Week 5 and Odell Beckham Jr. had just two catches for 20 yards. Beckham was fifth on the Browns in targets with three, behind David Njoku (7), Donovan Peoples-Jones (6), Kareem Hunt (6) and Rashard Higgins (5). Since seeing nine targets in his return to the lineup against the Bears in Week 3, Beckham has seen his targets decline each week.

Bottom Line: Odell Beckham Jr. now has 19 targets, 9 catches, 124 yards and zero touchdowns on the season through three games played, and he's doing that without Jarvis Landry in the lineup. You cannot rely on Beckham in your starting lineups until you see him turn things around. At this point, if you're in a 10-team league with a shallow bench you can cut Beckham, but if you're in a 12-team league or a league with a deep bench you may want to hold on for a few more weeks with hopes that he's simply coming back slowly from his knee injury.

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears

Week 5 Stats: 18 carries, 75 yards

After playing just 10 offensive snaps for the Bears through the first four weeks of the season, Khalil Herbert logged a season-high 53.1% in Week 5 with David Montgomery out of the lineup. Damien Williams played 48.4% of the Bears offensive snaps. The Bears went with a run-heavy approach in Week 5 and handed Damien Williams the ball 16 times compared to 18 carries for Herbert.

Bottom Line: If you're struggling at running back go out there and get Khalil Herbert off the waiver wire if he's still available because he will have a decent role as long as David Montgomery remains inactive. According to Yahoo, Herbert is only rostered in 19% of leagues so there's a chance he's still out there.

Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins

Week 5 Stats: 5 carries, 25 yards, 10 targets, 10 catches, 74 yards, 2 TD

Myles Gaskin played a season-high 68.5% of the Dolphins offensive snaps in Week 5 as the Dolphins took a very pass-heavy approach against a stingy Buccaneers defense. One week removed from a two-carry and zero-target showing, Gaskin was the most-targeted running back in fantasy football in Week 5.

Bottom Line: The Dolphins ran the ball just seven times in Week 5 and Gaskin is clearly the running back they favor on passing downs. Gaskin's Week 5 usage was game plan specific, which means you cannot rely on him for this type of production each week.

A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers

Week 5 Stats: 8 carries, 30 yards, 4 targets, 4 catches, 49 yards, 1 TD

A.J. Dillon only played 21 snaps (32.8%) in Week 5 but he touched the ball 12 times. Aaron Jones still led the way for the Packers playing 68.8% of the offensive snaps and had 18 touches. Jones seemingly disappeared for a stretch during the first half, but he's clearly still the guy in Green Bay. The Packers clearly have a package for Dillon and are using him in spurts to keep Jones fresh down the stretch.

Bottom Line: Based on his usage, A.J. Dillon is a viable flex option in fantasy leagues moving forward but he will likely be touchdown-dependent because Aaron Jones is still leading the team in snaps and touches.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

Week 5 Stats: 7 targets, 7 catches, 149 yards, 1 TD

David Njoku played 63.9% of the Browns offensive snaps in Week 5 which is about his usual complement. Njoku is a very explosive athlete and the Browns took advantage of a good matchup against a Chargers defense that's giving up the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Bottom Line: Njoku's performance looks to be the product of the Browns game plan and he's not likely going to come through like this on a consistent basis. Prior to Week 5, Njoku had just 10 targets on the season, so don't chase the points.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Week 5 Stats: 8 targets, 6 catches, 75 yards, 1 TD

In Week 5 Hunter Henry played a season-low 40 snaps, or 62.5% which was also a season-low. Jonnu Smith played the exact same number of snaps as Henry, but Henry ran 25 routes on Sunday compared to just eight by Smith.

Bottom Line: If you haven't already arrived at this conclusion, Hunter Henry is the Patriots tight end you should be starting on your fantasy teams, not Jonnu Smith.

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