Surprise Fantasy Football Studs, Duds - Real or Mirage?

October 20, 2021

Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Lamar Jackson, Jamal Agnew, O.J. Howard, and more.

Week 6 of the NFL season is now in the books and your top three quarterbacks were Josh Allen, Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott. Both Cousins and Prescott took advantage of the overtime period to add a third touchdown, while Prescott threw for a whopping 445 yards. Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow all finished inside the top-12 as expected. The main surprises from the week were underwhelming performances from Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert. Tight end was fairly predictable this week with Noah Fant finishing as TE-1. Mike Gesicki, Travis Kelce, Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson were all heavily involved with nine-or-more targets and finished as TE1's. Darren Waller was the main disappointment on the week finishing with just five catches for 59 yards.

The top-12 wide receivers from Week 6 were CeeDee Lamb, Cooper Kupp, Adam Thielen, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Jaylen Waddle, Antonio Brown, Marvin Jones Jr., Courtland Sutton, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Cole Beasley and Tyreek Hill. All of those receivers other than Peoples-Jones, Beasley and Hopkins received 10-or-more targets while Lamb, Kupp, Peoples-Jones, Waddle and Hopkins all found the endzone twice. Justin Jefferson lost two points for a fumble, finishing as WR-33 which is disappointing for him, but he did had 14 targets which is a monster workload, so he will rebound. Parris Campbell and Kendrick both finished as WR2's off of just one catch, each scoring bombs, neither can be trusted on a consistent basis.

Jonathan Taylor finished as RB-2 on the week on the heels of an 83-yard run and Derrick Henry rumbled for three touchdowns on his way to another RB-1 performance. Leonard Fournette touched the ball 28 times and scored twice to finish as RB-3 and Joe Mixon scored on a 40-yard pass from Joe Burrow on his way to a 153-yard day and an RB-4 finish. On the disappointing end Austin Ekeler only touched the ball 10 times and neither Melvin Gordon or Javonte Williams were able to take advantage of a great matchup against a leaky Raiders run defense. Now, let's take a look at some of the outliers from Week 6 and evaluate whether they're worth a spot on your roster or in your starting lineup.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Week 6 Stats: 33-of-47 passing, 329 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 3 carries, 22 yards

The Jaguars defense has actually been solid against the run lately but they've struggled to stop the pass. The Jaguars have given up 300-or-more passing yards and 20-or-more fantasy points to quarterbacks four times so far this season. Tua Tagovailoa took advantage of this great matchup but he did have one very bad interception where it looked like he threw the ball directly to the Jaguars defensive back. Tagovailoa looked just fine and fully recovered from his rib injury which gives us the confidence to use him if we need to.

Bottom Line: The Dolphins play the Falcons in Week 7 who have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Falcons have been getting thrashed by all quarterbacks other than Zach Wilson and Daniel Jones so if you're in trouble because of a bye week Tua Tagovailoa is a viable replacement.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Week 6 Stats: 19-of-27 passing, 167 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 8 carries, 51 yards

The Chargers defense has given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, featuring a decent secondary. The Chargers have given up an NFL-worst 5.4 yards-per-carry and the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs, so all signs pointed to the Ravens running backs getting it done in Week 6. Lamar Jackson did narrowly miss on a touchdown throw to Marquise Brown which would have helped his final stat line.

Bottom Line: Lamar Jackson did have a decent day on the ground with eight carries for 51 yards but he failed to rush for a score and had a down game through the air. Jackson had a tough matchup against the Chargers but he should bounce back nicely against the Bengals in Week 7 who have been playing well on defense so far this season but aren't exactly a prohibitive matchup.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns

Week 6 Stats: 5 targets, 4 catches, 101 yards, 2 TD

Donovan Peoples-Jones has played between 59% and 79.7% of the Browns offensive snaps in 2021, logging 78% (46) against the Cardinals in Week 6. Peoples-Jones has seen 11 targets over his last two games which is more than the four targets he had prior to Week 5. Peoples-Jones' day was highlighted by a 57-yard pass from Baker Mayfield for a score as time expired at the end of the first half.

Bottom Line: The Browns play the Broncos in Week 7 who have been pretty solid against wide receivers so far this season. Baker Mayfield hurt his non-throwing shoulder this week and that uncertainty at quarterback makes Peoples-Jones' prospects a little iffy. The Browns normally have a low volume passing attack but both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are injured which means they may throw the ball more this week. All that being said, I would only play Peoples-Jones in my starting lineup if I was desperate in a deeper league given all the uncertainty around his role and the Browns personnel in general.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 6 Stats: 5 targets, 5 catches, 43 yards

Chris Godwin was involved in the Buccaneers passing game very early in Week 6 against the Eagles but then he seemingly disappeared. Darius Slay occupied Mike Evans for most of the game which left Antonio Brown and Godwin with the easier matchups. The Eagles let this game slip away and it appeared out of reach at one point, which allowed the Buccaneers to pound Leonard Fournette for 22 carries rather than throw it.

Bottom Line: Chris Godwin still leads the Buccaneers in catches with 34, ahead of Mike Evans (31), Antonio Brown (29), Gio Bernard (19) and Rob Gronkowski (17). Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown each have 42-or-more targets and over 400 receiving yards on the year. Basically, Tom Brady is going to be able to distribute the ball to the open receiver based on matchups or coverages, which will make things a little week-to-week for all of these guys, not just Godwin. The bottom line is that Godwin still a great option, he's just no longer an elite fantasy receiver unless there's an injury to one of the other guys.

Jamal Agnew, Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 6 Stats: 6 targets, 5 catches, 78 yards

Since D.J. Chark went down against the Bengals in Week 4, Jamal Agnew has played about 60% of the Jaguars offensive snaps. In Week 5, Agnew had the second-most targets on the team with seven and in Week 6 he was third on the team with six.

Bottom Line: Jamal Agnew is extremely athletic and looks very fast with the ball in his hands. Agnew appears to have a role in the Jaguars passing attack now that Chark is out of the lineup and he's worth consideration as a very low-end option in deeper leagues if you need some help.

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears

Week 6 Stats: 19 carries, 97 yards, 1 TD, 3 targets, 2 catches, 15 yards

After playing just 10 offensive snaps for the Bears through the first four weeks of the season, Khalil Herbert logged a season-high 53.1% in Week 5 with David Montgomery out of the lineup. In Week 6 both Montgomery and Damien Williams were out of the lineup for the Bears which led to Herbert playing a whopping 88.5% of the snaps. The Bears found themselves playing from behind for much of the game, but they kept it close and Herbert touched the ball 21 times in the contest. Herbert really looks the part and is fully taking advantage of this opportunity.

Bottom Line: Khalil Herbert is rostered in 65% of Yahoo leagues and if he's out there in one of your leagues, he absolutely needs to be picked up. While Herbert has been great over the last two weeks, things may get a little muddy if Damien Williams returns from the COVID-List before Week 7. Further complicating matters, the Bears play the Buccaneers in Week 7 which caps any rushing upside a running back may have.

Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders

Week 6 Stats: 4 carries, 34 yards, 1 TD, 2 targets, 2 catches, 39 yards, 1 TD

Kenyan Drake was RB-9 in Week 6 and he was the only running back to crack the top-15 with less than 15 touches. Josh Jacobs returned to action and played his usual 64.3% of the Raiders offensive snaps which left Kenyan Drake to play just 12 snaps (21.4%). This means that Drake scored a touchdown on one of every six snaps he played which is not sustainable.

Bottom Line: The most carries that Kenyan Drake has had in any game this year is eight and he hasn't seen more than six targets in any game. Drake shouldn't even be rostered in shallower 10-team leagues and you simply cannot use him in deeper leagues unless you're desperate and don't have any other options.

Chris Evans, Cincinnati Bengals

Week 6 Stats: 4 carries, 18 yards, 3 targets, 3 catches, 49 yards, 1 TD

Samaje Perine was on the COVID-List which caused him to miss Week 6. As a result, Chris Evans played on a season-high 16 snaps (22.2%). Evans has established himself as the Bengals passing-down back but he simply doesn't play enough snaps to be viable when Samaje Perine is healthy and playing.

Bottom Line: Chris Evans is worth a stash in deeper leagues and dynasty leagues. If Perine or Mixon were to miss time, Evans may see enough work to make him relevant. Moreover, if the Bengals face a team which forces them to abandon the run and throw the ball, Evans could have some serious appeal.

O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 6 Stats: 7 targets, 6 catches, 49 yards, 1 TD

Since Rob Gronkowski left the Buccaneers lineup due to injury in Week 4, O.J. Howard has played between 59.5% and 65.4% of all offensive snaps. Through the first five weeks of the season Howard saw six targets, but in Week 6 he was targeted seven times. The Eagles struggle to defend tight ends in the passing game which set up for a big day from Howard.

Bottom Line: The Buccaneers play the Bears in Week 7 who have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends on the season. The matchup, coupled with the fact that Rob Gronkowski should be returning soon makes O.J. Howard very difficult to trust moving forward. Howard should remain on waiver wires in shallow leagues but he's worth a roster spot in dynasty leagues and deeper leagues.

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