Surprise Fantasy Football Studs, Duds - Real or Mirage?

November 30, 2021

Week 12 of the 2021 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Jalen Hurts, Tee Higgins, Austin Walter, and more.

Quarterback scoring was a little down in general in Week 12 with guys like Trevor Lawrence (228 yards and 2 TDs) and Joe Burrow (190 yards and 2 TDs) finishing in the top-12. Josh Allen led the way on Thanksgiving with four touchdowns while Aaron Rodgers threw for two and ran one in for a score with his bad toe to finish as QB-2. Dak Prescott lit up the Raiders without Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb and Derek Carr had a big performance in the same game. Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz, Justin Herbert, Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow and Andy Dalton were the other QB1's on the week. Jack Doyle, Dawson Knox, Rob Gronkowski, Mark Andrews, Dalton Schultz, Pat Freiermuth, T.J. Hockenson and Cole Kmet were some of the top-performing tight ends from Week 12. Rob Gronkowski, Mark Andrews and Cole Kmet all saw at least 10 targets, which is pretty good for a tight end.

Jaylen Waddle routinely torched the Panthers secondary for big plays on Sunday to finish as WR-1 while Adam Thielen scored on two of his five catches to finish as WR-2. Kendrick Bourne only saw six targets but he scored twice on his way to a nice day and Deebo Samuel continued to get it done on the ground, scoring two rushing touchdowns on his way to a WR-5 finish. Tee Higgins, DeSean Jackson, Hunter Renfrow, Stefon Diggs, Van Jefferson, Odell Beckham Jr., Randall Cobb and Russell Gage rounded out the WR1's for Week 12.

Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon and Cordarrelle Patterson were touchdown machines this week to finish as the top three options at running back. Fournette scored three times on the ground against a previously stingy Colts rush defense and added a score through the air, while Joe Mixon touched the ball 32 times on his way to a 163-yard day. Elijah Mitchell, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Austin Ekeler, Javonte Williams, Josh Jacobs, Myles Gaskin, Dontrell Hilliard and Jonathan Taylor rounded out the RB1's. McKissic had a big performance on Monday night against the Seahawks but he appeared to suffer a significant leg injury so he will likely miss some time. Now, let's take a look at some of the outliers from Week 12 and evaluate whether they're worth a spot on your roster or in your starting lineup.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Week 12 Stats: 14-of-31 passing, 129 yards, 3 INT, 8 carries, 77 yards

The Giants defense tried to limit Jalen Hurts in the running game and force him to throw the ball. As a result, Hurts completed less than 50% of his passes and threw three interceptions. Hurts put together a solid string of games prior to this week and was QB-1 on the season heading into Week 12, but as we saw this week, Hurts really needs to come through with his legs in order to be a viable starter on your fantasy team.

Bottom Line: What should we do with Jalen Hurts after this meltdown in Week 12? Start him in Week 13. The Eagles play against the Jets who have been brutal all year and should give up QB1 numbers this week.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

Week 12 Stats: 8 targets, 6 catches, 114 yards, 1 TD

If you read my wide receiver matchup article before Week 12 you would have known that Tee Higgins was going to see coverage from James Pierre this week. Pierre is the weak link in the Steelers secondary and Joe Burrow was clearly looking to pick on him. Ja'Marr Chase was being used as a rub or pick-guy on many of the Benglas pass plays to get other guys open and was actually a pretty good blocker on Sunday. Higgins took advantage of this great matchup to finish as WR-5 on the week. Since being targeted 15 times against Baltimore in Week 7, Higgins has seen six, eight, three and eight targets over his last four games. This is the first time Higgins scored since Week 2.

Bottom Line: Tee Higgins is the clear No. 2 option in the Bengals passing game, but given their desire to run the ball, Higgins should only be used in shallower leagues (10-team leagues) if Ja'Marr Chase has a tough matchup. As far as 12-team leagues and deeper, Higgins should be used unless you're extremely deep at wide receiver. The Bengals play the Chargers next week which should call for another big day from Joe Mixon because they play two-high safeties. However, starting in Week 14 the Bengals play the 49ers, Broncos, Ravens and Chiefs which means Higgins may be busy down the stretch run.

Josh Reynolds, Detroit Lions

Week 12 Stats: 5 targets, 3 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD

Josh Reynolds played 87.8% of the Lions offensive snaps in just his second game with the team after being released by the Titans. Reynolds clearly has a connection with Jared Goff from their time together on the Rams, but he's simply not a great perimeter receiver and is better suited as a No. 3 or No. 4 option. That being said, the Lions simply don't have any proven options at wide receiver and Reynolds is actually the best pass catcher they have other than T.J. Hockenson, so he will have appeal from week to week.

Bottom Line: In the short-term Reynolds looks to be a solid option as the Lions play the Vikings in Week 13 who have been absolutely torched by wide receivers this year.

Dontrell Hilliard, Tennessee Titans

Week 12 Stats: 12 carries, 131 yards, 1 TD, 2 targets, 1 catch, 2 yards

Dontrell Hillard played 50.8% of the snaps for the Titans in Week 12 compared to 49.2% for D'Onta Foreman. Hilliard looked very explosive when he had the ball, especially on his 68-yard touchdown, but Foreman still touched the ball 20 times in this contest so this isn't exactly Hilliard's show.

Bottom Line: The Titans are on bye this week so using Hilliard is off the table, but then they come back to action in Week 14 against the Jaguars. The Jaguars are tremendous against the run lately which means Dontrell Hilliard might be viable in that matchup given his ability in the passing game. However, the situation is complicated because Jeremy McNichols may return from injury soon and resume his role as the passing down back. It comes down to this: if you used Hilliard this week, good for you, but if you need help at running back moving forward you should only use him in your lineup if you're really desperate.

Matt Breida, Buffalo Bills

Week 12 Stats: 9 carries, 26 yards, 2 targets, 2 catches, 29 yards, 1 TD

Just two weeks ago I wrote about Matt Breida and said he should be left on the waiver wire because of his low snap-counts. Here we are in Week 12 and that is being revisited because Zack Moss has clearly fallen out of favor in Buffalo after coming back from his concussion. Matt Breida did play 31.8% of the Bills offensive snaps in Week 12 which is about the same that he played in Week 11, but he's more of the passing down back and not getting consistent work in the running game. In Week 11, Breida touched the ball six times and gained 67 yards-from-scrimmage, but he failed to score and only had 7.7 points in a PPR.

Bottom Line: If you're desperate and need to rely on Matt Breida, you better hope he scores. Also, remember that Breida has been given opportunities in the past and he seemingly always gets hurt, so try not to rely on him unless you absolutely have to.

Austin Walter, N.Y. Jets

Week 12 Stats: 9 carries, 38 yards, 1 TD, 1 target

Austin Walter is in his third year in the NFL out of Rice. Prior to Week 12 of 2021, Walter had one carry for three yards while appearing in four games for the 49ers in 2020. Walter played 16 snaps (23.9%) in Week 12 and touched the ball on nine of those snaps. Ty Johnson played his usual 34.3% of the snaps while Tevin Coleman played 44.8%. The Jets ran the ball 31 times on Sunday with Coleman leading the way with 16 carries, Walter logging nine and Johnson with just six.

Bottom Line: Michael Carter can't get back to the lineup soon enough. The Jets backfield is a disaster of a situation and I would just avoid it all together until Carter returns.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 12 Stats: 8 carries, 23 yards, 5 targets, 3 catches, 14 yards

Najee Harris played a season-low 58.1% of the Steelers offensive snaps in Week 12 and was barely involved as a result. This game was over by halftime and it appeared as if the Bengals were trying to ice the entire second half. Harris took a few shots in the game and appeared to be a little gimpy after he got up at least once, which likely contributed to the Steelers' decision to pull him from the game and rest him with the contest well out of reach early.

Bottom Line: Najee Harris will be fine down the stretch. This will likely go down as his worst game of the season.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Week 12 Stats: 11 targets, 8 catches, 65 yards

Allen Robinson was out in Week 12 and Andy Dalton used Cole Kmet as his security blanket when he wasn't targeting Darnell Mooney downfield. It feels like Kmet has really been coming on lately, but even with his expanded usage over the last few weeks, Kmet has barely averaged top-15 points over the last four weeks.

Bottom Line: Cole Kmet has some challenging matchups coming up over the next four weeks so he should be considered a middle of the pack TE2. Don't get too excited over his recent success and put him in your lineup over a more proven option.

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