RADIO
Nick Federline reviews Super Bowl Squares historical trends in advance of Super Bowl LV, including some strategies and advice for the popular office pool game.
One of the most common "office pool" games across the country this time of year is played on a piece of paper with 100 squares. The "Super Bowl Squares" game is a staple in offices and at Super Bowl parties because it is a fun way for everyone to have a rooting interest in the big game.
The game works simply. In the days leading up to the big game, a box with 100 squares, 10 wide by 10 high, is slowly filled one-by-one. Once all the boxes have been filled, the numbers 0 through 9 are randomly assigned to each column and then to each row so that each individual cell is a unique combination. The players now have their number combination that they are rooting for. The last digit of each team's final score will correspond with the winning square.
In the Chiefs' three Super Bowl appearances, the number zero has struck often. The Buccaneers have appeared in the Super Bowl only once (Coach Jon Gruden's Super Bowl XXXVII 48-21 victory over the Oakland Raiders), and that game brought an unexpected ending result of 8-1. Over the course of the two opponents' four combined Super Bowl appearances, number 0 has been the last digit of a team's score in seven of the sixteen possible outcomes (quarters), followed by three (four times), and the numbers one, four, six, seven, and eight (all once apiece). How much does historical data matter for something that seems like random luck, especially for games that took place years and even decades ago? It's happened more often than you might imagine. Let's take a look, quarter by quarter.
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First Quarter
| Q1 | ||||
| # | NFC | AFC | Total | % |
| 1 | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| 2 | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| 3 | 15 | 9 | 24 | 22.2% |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6.5% |
| 5 | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.9% |
| 7 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 18.5% |
| 8 | 1 | - | 1 | 0.9% |
| 9 | 2 | - | 2 | 1.9% |
| 0 | 23 | 29 | 52 | 48.1% |
The first-quarter results show that the best number to have on the board is undoubtedly zero, which has been one of the two teams' results in 48.1% of the possible outcomes from the first 54 Super Bowls. If you have the numbers one, two, five, six, eight, or nine, you should consider the first quarter as a good time too because those have been winning numbers in the first quarter combination only six combined times. The American Football Conference (AFC) team has ended the first quarter with zero more often than their National Football Conference (NFC) counterparts.
Halftime
| Q2/Halftime | ||||
| # | NFC | AFC | Total | % |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4.6% |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4.6% |
| 3 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 18.5% |
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 10.2% |
| 5 | 1 | - | 1 | 0.9% |
| 6 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 9.3% |
| 7 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 16.7% |
| 8 | 3 | - | 3 | 2.8% |
| 9 | 3 | - | 3 | 2.8% |
| 0 | 16 | 16 | 32 | 29.6% |
The second quarter adds plenty of variability to the results, thanks to an additional fifteen minutes of gameplay. Zero is still the most common result at 29.6%, followed closely by three, seven, and four. Five has only been in the halftime winning combination once out of 106 results - Super Bowl XXII, when Doug Williams led the Washington Redskins to a 35-10 halftime lead over the Denver Broncos and would go on to become the first African-American starting quarterback to win a Super Bowl. In the Super Bowl, anything can happen - like the Super Bowl IX 2-0 halftime lead that the Steelers held over the Vikings on a Dwight White end-zone sack of quarterback Fran Tarkenton.
Third Quarter
| Q3 | ||||
| # | NFC | AFC | Total | % |
| 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5.6% |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2.8% |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 13.0% |
| 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 12.0% |
| 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3.7% |
| 6 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 11.1% |
| 7 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 21.3% |
| 8 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5.6% |
| 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6.5% |
| 0 | 12 | 8 | 20 | 18.5% |
The third quarter is much more wide open than the first two quarters, as teams' scores increase and allows more time for missed extra points and safeties to create unusual scores. As expected, the numbers zero, three, and seven are still the most common winners, but the rest of the pack is not far behind. As recently as Super Bowl XLVIII, we saw a relatively odd combination with the Seahawks' 36-8 lead at the end of the third quarter in their drubbing of the Peyton Manning-led Denver Broncos.
Final Score
| Q4/Final | ||||
| # | NFC | AFC | Total | % |
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 13.9% |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3.7% |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 11.1% |
| 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 13.9% |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4.6% |
| 6 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 9.3% |
| 7 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 17.6% |
| 8 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5.6% |
| 9 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 7.4% |
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 13.0% |
So, what is the best final score number combination to have for the big game? The Chiefs' average points scored in a Super Bowl is 21.3 points per game (ppg), and they have allowed 20.7 ppg in their three collective Super Bowl appearances. The Buccaneers won their lone Super Bowl appearance in 2002 in blowout fashion, 48 to 21. Overall, the best number is traditionally seven, followed by four, one, and zero, while two and five are the numbers that a competitor should desire to stay away from in the past.
Conclusion
The 2020 season has brought unprecedented challenges, and an interesting array of final score results from the two Super Bowl LV competitors. While two and five are historically the least-often winners in Super Bowl squares, holders of those numbers should not despair because Kansas City and Tampa Bay have combined to hit those in eight combined opportunities this season, including playoffs.
| 2020 season and postseason - last digit of final scores | ||||
| # | TB | KC | Total | % |
| 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14% |
| 2 | - | 4 | 4 | 11% |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17% |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14% |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11% |
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8% |
| 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8% |
| 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11% |
| 9 | 1 | - | 1 | 3% |
| 0 | 1 | - | 1 | 3% |
The traditional Super Bowl Squares office pool game has a long-standing tradition and unexpected results can be made in the blink of an eye. In Super Bowl XLVIII, the Seahawks' Cliff Avril tackled Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno in the end zone for a safety, which caused unexpected Super Bowl Squares results for the remainder of the game. When Adam Vinatieri's extra point attempt failed in the first quarter of Super Bowl XLI, the resulting scores in the game's four quarters did not follow historical precedents.
We've seen which numbers are most likely to hit based on past results but often this game is played without player choice, meaning you are simply hoping for a lucky draw. The best thing you can do is sit back, relax, enjoy the game, and hope history is on your side or that history is made depending on the number combination that you end up with.
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