Stop That Hype Train! Kareem Hunt

August 28, 2019

Controversial running back Kareem Hunt is suspended for the first half of the 2019 season but is still being drafted in the middle rounds of fantasy football leagues. Kipp Heistermann explains why his ADP is too high.

Kareem Hunt's 2018 season was abruptly cut short when the Kansas City Chiefs released him in November after a video surfaced showing him knocking over and kicking a woman in a Cleveland hotel. Then, in February, the Cleveland Browns signed Hunt to a one-year deal before the NFL finished their investigation into the matter. Browns GM, John Dorsey told the media that after conducting extensive research he felt Hunt was "extremely remorseful" and would be a "better man today than he was yesterday." The NFL then concluded its investigation into Hunt's incident in March and handed down an eight-game suspension. Hunt would not appeal the suspension.

This is where we currently stand in the Hunt Saga. He is listed as the number two running back on the depth chart behind second-year sensation, Nick Chubb, and will be serving the eight-game suspension. The Browns have their bye week during Week Seven, which means Hunt will be eligible to return for a home game Week 10 against the Buffalo Bills.

What does all of this mean for Hunt's draft stock in 2019? We know what he was capable of in Kansas City as he was a first-round draft selection in fantasy drafts, but how do we gauge someone who missed the last month of 2018 and won't be eligible to return until November 10th? He will have been out of football almost an entire calendar year before returning, and even then, he won't be the lead back. This hasn't stopped people from drafting him with an ADP of 92, however. Should he be taken this high, or is the Hype Train moving too fast?

Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE) ADP: 92 RB: 50

There are several places to start when discussing why Hunt's current ADP is too high, but the best place to begin is with the eight-game suspension. This is a guy that will be serving a suspension that does not allow him to see game action until Week 10. Week 10! This means at most, fantasy owners would have his production for Weeks 10-16 since most leagues have their championship matchup during Week 16. Also, to gain the production for Weeks 15-16, owners would have to make the playoffs. There is very little value in using up a roster spot for a backup running back that is not even allowed to see action until mid-November.

Kareem Hunt is a unique talent, however, he won't see the field to give fantasy players the production they need to make the playoffs. In an auction league, it might make sense to go ahead and draft Hunt for $1-$2 if you can get him that cheap, but to use an eighth or ninth-round draft pick on him does not make sense. Other running backs that can be had around the same ADP include Darwin Thompson, Jordan Howard, and Royce Freeman. These names may not sound as sexy as Kareem Hunt, but they most certainly will provide more value throughout the season than Hunt. This also includes Weeks 10-16 as he will remain the backup to Nick Chubb.

This brings us to reason number two not to use an eighth or ninth-round pick on Hunt, and that is because he will remain behind current first-round (ADP 12) pick, Nick Chubb. Nick Chubb is a budding star in the NFL, so it's not as if Hunt is coming back to a situation where he would easily take over as the number one. Chubb took over as the lead back during Week Seven in 2018 and averaged 19.6 touches per game through the end of the season. He collected four one hundred-yard rushing games in total and was a focal point in the Browns' offense. This is exemplified by his 53.7% of snaps with a touch, which ranked him in the top eight percent of running backs league-wide. The Browns love Chubb and are not looking to replace him anytime soon.

There is no doubt Kareem Hunt has the skill set to be a star running back in the NFL, but 2019 is not the season fantasy owners should be spending a draft pick inside the top 10 rounds on him. Hunt will be forced to miss a large part of the season, which will significantly impact the value he can return. Once he does return, he will have Nick Chubb to contend with for playing time. When drafting him, the best owners could hope for is a Nick Chubb injury late in the season or a trade. If Hunt is traded to the right situation, his value would significantly increase, but owners would still have a dead roster spot until Week 10. If you are going to draft Hunt, wait until at least round 12. Taking him any sooner does not make sense when roster spots are so valuable in fantasy football.

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