Stop That Hype Train! James Washington

The Pittsburgh Steelers enter 2019 as something other than the favorite to win the AFC North, which is unfamiliar territory. This is a team that has undergone some significant changes in the offseason. The two most notable changes are the losses of wide receiver Antonio Brown and running back Le'Veon Bell.

The 2018 Pittsburgh Steelers were ranked fourth in the league in total offense with 6,453 yards. A large portion of this offense was built around the passing game as they ranked second in the league behind only Tampa Bay with 5,008 yards through the air. This prolific passing attack was led by the two-headed monster of JuJu Smith-Schuster and the recently departed Brown. They combined for 215 receptions for a total of 2,723 receiving yards, which accounted for approximately 54% of the passing game. Behind these two receivers were significant contributions from Vance McDonald, James Conner, and Jesse James. They accounted for 610, 497, and 423 receiving yards, respectively.

In 2019, the question of who replaces Antonio Brown on the depth chart and in the passing game is of the utmost importance. As it stands currently, the Steelers' depth chart has Smith-Schuster listed as the number one wide receiver followed by Donte Moncrief and James Washington. Although Moncrief is listed as the second wide receiver on the depth chart, a lot of hype surrounds Washington heading into 2019 as his ADP of 120 suggests. Let's dive into Washington's 2018 rookie campaign and see if we need to hop on the Hype Train.

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James Washington (WR, PIT)

ADP: 120, WR58

James Washington was selected with the 60th overall pick in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft. With a receiver selection this high, one would think Washington would have jumped right into the mix in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, he found himself fourth on the team in targets, receptions, and yards. This may seem shocking, but some metrics show exactly why this could have been the case.

James Washington had an abysmal catch rate in 2018. His catch rate was 42.1% as he only caught 16 passes on 38 targets. This ranked him in the bottom five percent of the league. Rookie receivers often have a hard time adjusting to the NFL in their first season, so a lower catch rate is understandable, but 42.1% is incredibly low. A large part of his low catch rate has to do with his drop rate, unfortunately. Washington dropped 5.3% of his targets last season, which equates to two drops on 38 targets. Two drops may not seem like many, but when you are only thrown the ball 38 times, it is a very high number. His drop rate put him in the bottom 40% of the league among wide receivers in 2018.

Aside from Washington's inability to haul in more of his targets, he also performed poorly in the yards after catch (YAC) department. In 2018, he only averaged 3.8 yards after the catch. This ranked him in the bottom 33% of the league. The Steelers are an offense that thrives on YAC, and all three receivers ahead of Washington on the depth chart as well as tight end Vance McDonald had a higher YAC than him. Another wide receiver that had a higher YAC was a new arrival, Donte Moncrief. Moncrief averaged five yards after the catch, which was good for top 31% in the league. Moncrief also had a higher catch rate (53.9%), and a lower drop rate (4.5%) than Washington. One could easily see Moncrief becoming the benefactor of Antonio Brown's target share. Speaking of target share, Washington only received 5.6% of the Steelers' targets in 2018. This ranked him in the bottom 28% of the league. With a high drop rate, low catch rate, and low YAC, this should come as no surprise.

There is a lot of hype surrounding James Washington heading into 2019, but it is not warranted. He currently has an ADP of around 120, but this is too high. He has not shown the ability to haul in his targets or gain yards after the catch, and this has directly resulted in a lack of target share. The departure of Antonio Brown has opened up targets in Pittsburgh, but look for Donte Moncrief to garner a majority of those targets. James Washington will likely disappoint again in 2019 unless he can secure targets early and gain the trust of Ben Roethlisberger. While he has had success in the preseason thus far, it is important to remember that none of it has come with Roethlisberger at helm or Smith-Schuster in the lineup. Look to draft him somewhere around pick 140-150 in the 12th or 13th round.