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Pierre Camus looks at the trend of declining stolen bases in MLB and advises fantasy baseball managers on how to find speed on the waiver wire for 2020.
A common refrain among baseball analysts and fantasy managers is that the 2020 MLB season is meaningless. We can't extrapolate anything useful from a 60-game season. The numerous injuries, illnesses, and opt-outs make for an unreliable data sample.
If you chose to play season-long fantasy baseball, you don't care. You still want to win, asterisks be damned. Any edge will help in this unpredictable time. The most unpredictable aspect of fantasy offenses so far has been how to acquire speed without overpaying (and ultimately being let down in the process). Many a fantasy manager spent a pretty penny for the services of stolen base threats that haven't paid off so far (looking at you Mondesi Jr.).
So, is it a pointless exercise to look at the early data in order to find an edge in this utterly unpredictable state of things? Of course not. We simply need to gain some context and place our focus in the right place.
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The Current State of Thievery in MLB
Tommy Pham is the current stolen base leader in the majors. That makes him responsible for 5.6% of all stolen bases in the majors thus far with his five out of 89 total in the majors. Only three other teams have more steals than Pham.
This is partially a result of small sample size, but it also provides a stark reminder that teams don't run as much as they used to.
SB totals are down across the board this year and they've been dropping precipitously before the chaotic 2020 season.
The drop from 2019 to 2020 is even sharper so far:
The median in 2019 was .42 SB per game, an average of 69 over 162 games. The median for team steals this year is .28 SB per game, or two steals in seven games.
Some teams are literally providing zero speed. Whereas the bottom-three teams averaged at least .24 SB per game in 2019, the bottom-three teams in 2020 have a combined zero steals.
Seriously, we might not see a single Twin or Yankee steal a bag all year. Why bother when you can clear the bases with one swing at any point in the lineup? Maybe Brett Gardner will swipe one just for old time's sake.
It's not simply a matter of success rate, as attempts are down by a similar margin. In 2016, there were six teams averaging at least one SB attempt per game. That has gone down to two teams each year since. In 2010, eight teams averaged one or more SB attempts per game. Bottom line, there just aren't as many teams willing to run on a regular basis as before. As an 80s kid, it brings a single tear down my cheek when I reminisce on what an important part of the game speed used to be.
1986 MLB Stolen Base Leaders:
(1) Vince Coleman - 107
(2) Rickey Henderson - 87
(3) Eric Davis - 80
(4) Tim Raines - 70I miss stolen bases. pic.twitter.com/524guK03WP
— 80s Sports N Stuff (@80sSportsNStuff) July 27, 2020
Maybe the drop in stolen bases is simply correlated to the fact that some of the top players are struggling at the plate? If Adalberto Mondesi had an OBP higher than .206 (he hasn't taken a walk yet), Christian Yelich was batting better than .037 (seriously???) and Jonathan Villar had played more than three games, we would see higher numbers in this category.
There is no guarantee that this year will be historically low in steals. Teams could be more aggressive as the season progresses, especially down the stretch as more teams than ever find themselves in the playoff hunt. The problem is that by then, it might be too late for fantasy teams to make up a deficit.
What Does This Mean for 2020?
The best move is to target players on teams with aggressive managers. Right now, the Padres seem intent on burning up the basepaths under new manager Jayce Tingler. We don't know the tendencies of a skipper with no previous MLB experience, but it's becoming obvious he's going to utilize the top quality of his offense with Fernando Tatis Jr, Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham and Wil Myers all posting sprint speeds above 28 and ranking in the top 100 last year.
The Mariners were expected to be a high-steal team with Mallex Smith in the fold, but even with him off to a terrible start (.059 AVG, one SB in 19 PA), others have stepped up such as J.P. Crawford and Shed Long Jr. As an offense with a ton of youth and low expectations, expect them to run plenty all year.
The two Texas teams are the only others to average at least one SB attempt per game so far, with the aforementioned Straw responsible for nearly all the damage in Houston. The Rangers have a couple of baserunning threats, so the fact they are averaging .80 SB per game is promising.
In an ideal situation, you could buy low on multi-category contributors, especially those who've gotten off to slow starts. I won't harbor any illusions that you can get Christian Yelich or Ronald Acuna on the cheap just because they've struggled massively to start the season. It's unlikely someone is willing to part with Austin Meadows as he prepares to play for the first time this season. They must be realistic targets.
Ariel Cohen identified a number of "combo-players" before the season that are especially valuable in 5x5 leagues. My personal targets to acquire through the trade market right now that could help with steals without sacrificing other areas are Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Nick Senzel, Adam Eaton, and Trent Grisham.
Of course, roto players desperate to snatch up cheap steals off waivers need options too. That's easier said than done, however. Nobody saw Robbie Grossman's two-SB game coming and rostering a player like Myles Straw doesn't do much good when he only plays a couple of times a week at most and is a liability in every other category. Below are some talented players with stolen-base upside who are still widely available in many leagues.
Getcha Cheap Steals Here
Teoscar Hernandez (OF, TOR) 41% rostered
Hernandez has drawn some attention for his power, as he's already mashed four homers. He's also stolen two bases and was caught stealing on another attempt. His 29.1 sprint speed ranked 31st last year and he's batted in the leadoff spot three times so far in seven games. He should already be added in most leagues based on his hot start but an unexpected bonus could be the speed he provides.
Nick Solak (2B/3B, TEX) 22% rostered
Back-to-back 0-for-3 efforts have dropped his average to .211 and both his steals came in the same game, but he's been hitting second in the Rangers lineup for one of the most aggressive teams on the basepaths. All told, he could end up with double-digit steals and healthy runs-scored totals.
Jon Berti (3B/SS/OF, MIA) 12% rostered
It appears the Marlins are set to return to the field on Tuesday, August 4 against Baltimore. When they do come back, they'll be without second baseman Isan Diaz who opted out after the recent COVID outbreak on the team. Berti should take over at second base and will also mix into the outfield. He was the ultimate second-half waiver wire "steal" in 2019, accumulating 16 SB in August and September along with a .273 average and 39 runs. Miami's offense should be better, so Berti has a chance to be a fantasy contributor at multiple positions.
Leury Garcia (2B/SS/OF, CHW) 10% rostered
He doesn't have a steal to his name in 2020 but he is hitting .321 with a surprising pair of homers. He swiped 15 bags last year as a full-time player, which ranks top-25 in the category these days. With Tim Anderson hitting the IL (groin), Garcia is assured everyday playing time without having to make way for Nick Madrigal as he will simply slide over to shortstop. Garcia is looking like a solid waiver add even regardless of steals.
Garrett Hampson (2B/SS, COL) 55% rostered
Hampson is no sleeper. He's been a top prospect for the Rockies for a while and is already on many fantasy teams. He's disappointed early on, failing to grab a single steal as of yet. Unsurprisingly, he's been jerked in and out of the lineup and was on the bench once again on Sunday. He's only played in four of eight games so far, so he cannot be counted on as a regular MI. Don't give up hope though - injuries happen, especially this year.
Monte Harrison (OF, MIA) 0% rostered
Harrison is supposedly getting the call once Miami returns to action. His upside approaches that of what Lewis Brinson was supposed to bring, as a power-speed threat with holes in his swing. Harrison isn't as big of a prospect but he's yet to stall out like Brinson and will get every opportunity to shine.
Cole Tucker (SS, PIT) 0% rostered
The NL-only crowd will have a hard time finding any of the above names available, so here's my deep sleeper. Tucker would have been the starting shortstop at Triple-A Indianapolis this year had there been a minor-league season. Instead, he'll find time in right field and occasionally at shortstop. He scuffled in the majors in 2019 with a .211/.266/.361 slash line and a 25.2% K-rate. He didn't even steal a base over 159 plate appearances. He has good speed though, with a 28.8 sprint speed equivalent to Cody Bellinger. Tucker stole 35 bases at Altoona in 2018 and 47 across two levels in 2017, so it wouldn't be a stretch for the offensively-starved Pirates to give him the green light.
Shed Long Jr. (2B/OF, SEA) 5% rostered / Tim Lopes (OF, SEA) 2% rostered
AL-only or deep-league managers can find a pair of Mariners that are speed-only picks. Lopes has been in the starting lineup six of the past seven games, working his way up to the second spot in the order lately. Long is a better add due to MI eligibility and a higher ceiling in terms of power. Seattle is off and running to start 2020 and they'll have to stay aggressive to stay competitive, so either one could provide a boost.
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