Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Launch Angle Analysis for Week 5

Connelly Doan examines the Statcast leaderboard to identify starting pitchers whose rising and falling launch angles could make them worth adding or dropping in fantasy baseball for Week 5.

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. Last week I took a look at exit velocity, and this week I will look into a stat that goes hand-in-hand with it: launch angle (LA).

Now more than ever, hitters are attempting to put the ball in the air to both beat the defensive shifts and also increase the potential impact of a hit. Conversely, pitchers are generally striving to get hitters to put the ball on the ground since a ground ball, even a hard-hit one, is less likely to go for a hit. There are always exceptions to the rule. There are plenty of fly-ball pitchers who are successful and ground-ball pitchers who aren’t. However, identifying pitchers who avoid fly-ball contact is typically a sound idea for identifying pitchers who will be productive.

While LA alone may not paint a pitcher's complete story, it is definitely a good indicator as to what type of results they could experience throughout the season. I will pick two SP in the top percentiles of LA and two in the bottom percentiles, take a look under the hood, and predict what we can expect from them going forward. As I mentioned last week, I will avoid obvious fantasy studs or duds so that you can get the jump on some potentially overlooked or sell-high candidates.

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Top Launch Angle Pitchers

All launch angle stats current as of Sunday, April 25.

Adrian Houser, Milwaukee Brewers

(1-2, 3.32 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, -0.6-Degree Avg. LA)

Adrian Houser became an intriguing fantasy option for the 2020 season after an impressive 2019 rookie campaign. However, he followed that up with a poor sophomore season. Going into his third act, Houser has looked solid to this point, posting a 3.32 ERA over his first four starts. Perhaps the most impressive part of his season has been his -0.6-degree LA, a mark that is the lowest among qualifying pitchers. Can his low LA help him build on his early success?

On the surface, there are some stats of Houser's that fantasy managers may be wary of. For instance, his 1.53 WHIP is high overall, partly due to a 11.3% walk rate, and partly due to an 84.4% contact rate, the third-highest among qualifying pitchers. Furthermore, his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the bottom 34 percent and 26 percent of baseball respectively. However, these stats are not that unexpected given that Houser is a pitch-to-contact, ground-ball pitcher. He relies mainly on a sinker (48.4% usage), followed by a curveball (15.3% usage), and a changeup (15% usage).

The positive thing here is that Houser is keeping the ball low in the zone and out of the middle of the plate, which is what he needs to do to be effective. The more hard contact he gives up, the more hits he will allow. However, by keeping the ball on the ground, Houser has been able to limit damaging contact. His approach also helps explain the walk rate, as pitching around the zone can lead to more walks in exchange for limiting damaging contact.

Overall, Houser is not the most exciting fantasy pitcher and does walk a fine line between success and poor results due to his pitching approach. That being said, while it would be more encouraging to see his WHIP and walk rate a bit lower, he is locating his pitches where he needs to at the moment and his LA is the result of that. It would be nice to see a few more starts from Houser before giving a definitive verdict as to whether he can continue to replicate his results, but he is worth keeping an eye on as at least a potential streamer in the near future for fantasy managers since he is rostered in just four percent of leagues.

Aaron Sanchez, San Francisco Giants

(1-1, 1.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 1.3-Degree Avg. LA)

This next pitcher is proof that a pitching approach like Adrian Houser's can translate into fantasy success. Aaron Sanchez's first three seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays were impressive, and his 2016 season made it seem like he was primed to become a higher-end starting pitcher. However, a number of injuries contributed to poor seasons, culminating in Sanchez sitting out of the 2020 season. The 28-year-old is now back with the Giants and appears to be on the right track once again, posting a 1.83 ERA and 1.3-degree LA over his first four starts. Is his hot start legit? 

Unlike Houser, Sanchez has more stats under the hood that elicit hope that he can continue to pitch at this level. First, while Sanchez is not an overpowering pitcher, he has not allowed as hard of contact as Houser. His average exit velocity allowed is below league average, while his hard-hit-rate is just above average. Further, his 5% walk rate is much more manageable than Houser's. Consequently, Sanchez has a much lower WHIP.

He also mixes his pitches and locates them well. Sanchez has relied primarily on his curveball this season (32.2% usage), but also frequently throws a sinker (29.8% usage), a changeup (19% usage), and a four-seam fastball (19% usage). Sanchez's ability to locate his pitches and keep hitters off balance has not only yielded a strong batted-ball profile, but also above-average expected stats.

It is easy to get excited about Sanchez's early performance, as it is in part a feel-good story. However, his underlying metrics suggest that this may not be just a fluke. Sanchez is keeping the ball on the ground, avoiding hard contact, and is keeping hitters off the base paths. He also has the added benefits of pitching his home games in Oracle Park and being coached by a Giants pitching staff that has helped turn several pitchers' careers around over the past several seasons. He won't strike many hitters out, but, given what he has shown so far, I think he should definitely be rostered in more than the current 10 percent of leagues.

Bottom Launch Angle Pitchers

All launch angle stats current as of Sunday, April 25.

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

(2-0, 2.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 20.3-Degree Avg. LA)

This pitcher has had several ups and downs in his fantasy career and he's only 24 years old. Freddy Peralta has served as both a starter and reliever for the Brewers over his first four seasons and has showed signs of success and potential as well as struggles. Peralta is once again in the starting rotation for 2021 and is off to a great start, posting a 2.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a ridiculous 41.8% strikeout rate. The one potentially detrimental stat of Peralta's is his 20.3-degree LA. Is this finally the breakout fantasy managers have been hoping for?

Simply put, this does look like a potential breakout for Peralta, despite his LA. First, hitters are not making contact against him. Peralta's 60% contact rate is second-lowest only to Jacob deGrom, thanks in part to his crazy strikeout rate. Even more impressive is that Peralta has recorded that strikeout rate as a starter with essentially two pitches, a fastball (55.6% usage) and a slider (35.8% usage). While I do not think that Peralta can maintain that strikeout rate with just two pitches, they are great pitches. He has both above-average velocity and spin rate on his fastball, leading to an impressive 12.9% swinging-strike rate with the pitch. His slider has been a filthy complement, generating a 23.3% swinging-strike rate.

Second, the little contact Peralta has allowed has been soft contact. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed are both in the top-25 percent of baseball. Consequently, his has been able to pitch well despite allowing a high LA. His 3.03 SIERA supports the notion that he has a sustainable batted-ball profile, as do his expected stats.

I am not worried about Peralta's LA and think that he will continue to he a surprise higher-end fantasy pitcher. He has a solid overall batted-ball profile and has a limited batted-ball profile due to striking so many hitters out and avoiding contact. Peralta is a great example of a pitcher who can thrive despite having a high LA.

Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox

(2-0, 3.48 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 19.9-Degree Avg. LA)

Our final pitcher is one who was initially thought of as a potential fantasy asset, but has never panned out. Nick Pivetta owns a career 5.31 career ERA, but currently has a 3.48 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and a 21.2% strikeout rate with the Red Sox. The surface numbers are good, but his 19.9-degree average LA is currently tied for 10th-highest among qualifying pitchers. Will this eventually catch up to him?

A deeper look into his batted-ball profile hints that his high LA may indeed catch up to him. A high LA is not necessarily a bad thing if a pitcher also induces soft contact (see Peralta). This is the difference between a lazy fly ball or pop-up and home runs. Unfortunately, Pivetta's 91.3-MPH average exit velocity and 45.3% hard-hit rate are in the bottom 24 and 26 percent of baseball respectively. He currently has a minuscule 0.44 HR/9 rate compared to a 1.56 career mark and also currently has a 5.61 SIERA, so it seems like only a matter of time before the high LA and hard contact result in damaging contact.

The one interesting thing here is that Pivetta has tended to work up in the zone this season, especially with his fastball. His fastball has both above-average velocity at 94.5 MPH and above-average spin rate (which makes the pitch appear to rise) at 2,308 revolutions per minute. As such, Pivetta's strategy could potentially work if hitters produce too-high of a launch angle, hitting essentially hard fly balls that won't be deep enough to leave the yard. However, that is a risky game to play, especially when most signs point to negative outcomes.

Pivetta has been a useful streaming starter so far this season and has a good ERA and decent strikeout rate to show for it. However, a deeper dive suggests that Pivetta's tactic of inducing high, hard contact is not a long-term recipe for success. He is currently rostered in just nine percent of leagues, but for those managers who do roster him, he could make for a decent sell-high candidate if he can string together another couple of decent starts.

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