RADIO
Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose zone swiing & miss% could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 15.
Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. Last week, I investigated called + swinging strike rate (CSW%) and I'll follow that up with zone swing & miss %.
Zone swing & miss % is an interesting metric in that it lends insight into how "overpowering" a pitcher's stuff is. Of course, getting hitters to chase out of the zone is an important skill, but being able to overpower hitters in the zone is a positive base metric for starters to build upon. Being able to do so ensures that pitchers can attack hitters without fear of allowing damaging contact, and the more strikeouts the better for fantasy purposes.
This will be the final metric-specific article for the first half of this series. I will provide a second-half Pitcher Studs and Duds preview the following week. Hopefully, readers will find this approach helpful as they assess their team's needs for the second half of the fantasy season!
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Zone Swing & Miss% Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 2, 2023.
Blake Snell, San Diego Padres
4-7, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 22.1% Zone Swing & Miss%
Blake Snell has been a frustrating fantasy pitcher throughout his career, displaying elite skills at times while also battling numerous injuries and inconsistencies. This season has put that on display, as Snell had a 5.40 ERA through mid-May but has allowed just four runs in seven starts since. To add to the mix, his 22.1% zone swing & miss% is among the highest of qualified starters. How should fantasy managers feel about Snell for the second half?
It's a good thing Snell gets swings and misses on his pitches in the zone because he only throws pitches in the strike zone 34.6% of the time, the lowest mark among qualified starters. The main pitch he throws in the zone is his fastball at 53.2%, which is a decent pitch but only yields a 6.8% swinging strike rate. His other three pitches have elite swing-and-miss metrics but aren't thrown in the zone nearly as much.
This presents an interesting juxtaposition. Snell has a strong 14.7% swinging strike rate overall to go with a 31.5% strikeout rate, so it makes sense that he gets a lot of swings and misses on his pitches in the zone. On the other hand, he doesn't throw the ball in the zone frequently, leading to an 11.6% walk rate. He also has a below-average chase rate despite having such strong secondary pitches.
I don't think Snell will pitch as poorly as he did in his first nine starts, but I don't think he'll continue to pitch as strongly as he has lately. His 4.05 xERA seems to offer a middle point between his two performance stretches. His strikeout prowess has always been strong, but he has also always had walk issues. He tends to throw a lot of pitches either way, which limits how deep he can pitch into games.
I would be inclined to try to sell high on Snell since he's in a strong stretch. I would be fine with continuing to roster if I couldn't get a good enough deal on him, but feel that he will have several more poor stretches, continuing fantasy frustration.
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins
4-5, 4.24 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 21.9% Zone Swing & Miss%
Pablo Lopez's first-season numbers with the Twins look a little underwhelming with a 4-5 record and 4.24 ERA through 17 starts. However, his 21.9% zone swing & miss% is just behind Snell. Should fantasy managers be worried about getting consistent production from Lopez in the second half?
Fortunately, there are many positive signs under the hood. First, Lopez throws the ball in the zone frequently at 42.2%, so walks are not an issue. He also gets swings and misses on pitches thrown out of the zone with a chase rate in the 96th percentile of baseball. Lopez relies on a five-pitch mix and has gotten a pretty even distribution of strikeouts among four of them.
Signs point to bad luck for Lopez at this point. His Statcast profile is red all over, his 3.08 xERA and 3.41 SIERA are much lower than his current ERA, and his current .301 BABIP is a bit higher than his career .293 mark. Lopez seems to have been on the opposite end of performance possibilities that Snell had and I would prefer to roster Lopez over Snell for the second half of the season.
Zone Swing & Miss% Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 2, 2023.
Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles
4-4, 3.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 12.8% Zone Swing & Miss%
Kyle Bradish has had a surprise season along with the Orioles as a whole, compiling a 4-4 record with a 3.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 23% strikeout rate through 15 starts. However, his 12.8% zone swing & miss% is one of the lowest among qualified starters. Has the 26-year-old taken substantial steps forward or should fantasy managers be wary?
Bradish does throw the ball in the zone pretty frequently at 42.8% but only has an overall swinging strike rate of 10.5%. This could be because he relies heavily on a four-seam fastball and sinker, both of which have low swinging strike rates. He has also left both of those pitches in the middle of the plate, leading to respective batting averages of .377 and .280. His secondary pitches have good swinging strike rates, but his fastballs remain a concern.
Bradish has allowed a lot of hard contact (likely due to his fastball location), but he has kept the ball out of the air with a 7.8-degree launch angle. As such, his 4.34 xERA and 3.97 SIERA are both higher than his current ERA but aren't disastrous.
Bradish has turned in serviceable starts for fantasy managers this season, although his underlying numbers suggest he has overperformed. The lack of success of his fastballs is the biggest red flag. Even with regression, he could still be a useful streamer at times. I would consider Bradish to be a potential streamer mostly in points leagues for the second half of the season.
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians
5-5, 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 12.5% Zone Swing & Miss%
Our final pitcher is one I have a bit of a history with. During Shane Bieber's first full season, I took a stance that his underlying metrics were not nearly as good as his peripherals and that he would regress. He proved me wrong at that time. This season has been alright for Bieber, who has gone 5-5 with a 3.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 19.5% strikeout rate. He has only managed a 12.5% zone swing & miss%, however. Could Bieber be considered a sell-high candidate once again?
Bieber's low zone swing & miss% makes sense after looking under the hood. He has swapped his slider usage for a cutter and now throws some version of a fastball 61.5% of the time. His velocity decline has persisted this season and he has left his fastballs in the middle of the plate, leading to poor results on those pitches. His slider and curveball have still been good swing-and-miss pitches, but he hasn't thrown them enough to make a difference in his overall strikeout numbers.
Further, he has managed solid peripherals despite allowing hard contact. Bieber's exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the bottom 10 percent of baseball to go with a 10.1-degree launch angle. As such, his 4.68 xERA and 4.31 SIERA suggest there could be regression coming.
Bieber has not been the strikeout machine he once was for two seasons now. He is still a workhorse in that he pitches deep into games, but he has not managed to get swings and misses in general due to underwhelming fastballs. I have gone down this rabbit hole and have been wrong about him before, but the signs are all there once again. I will double down and call Bieber a sell-high candidate for the second half of the season.
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