RADIO
Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose WHIP could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 22.
Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. This week, I will focus on a broader stat that can influence other aspects of a pitcher's game: walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP).
While WHIP is more of a general stat, it ties into many other advanced stats. WHIP is of course made up of walks and hits, so it is important to examine both walk rate as well as BABIP along with WHIP. Generally speaking, pitchers with higher WHIPs have more runners on the base paths, which leads to more chances for poor outcomes.
At this point in the season, pitchers have logged enough innings to paint general performance trends, which can be relied on when determining who to start or sit. Fantasy managers cannot afford to make roster mistakes, so let's get into it!
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WHIP Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 20, 2023.
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
10-8, 3.23 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 22.4% Strikeout Rate
George Kirby is having his second consecutive strong season, going 10-8 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 22.4% strikeout rate. His main calling card is his lack of walks and his WHIP is currently the second-lowest among qualified pitchers. How has he managed his success and can fantasy managers count on him to finish the season on a high note?
Kirby's low WHIP is bolstered by the fact that he walks almost no one. His walk rate sits at a minuscule 2.4% on the season and his career mark is 3.2%. This makes sense because Kirby allows a lot of contact at an 81% clip. His .289 BABIP is below the league average, which further helps his WHIP.
There are some noteworthy things in his profile when looking deeper. The main thing is that Kirby has managed strong batted-ball results despite a mediocre profile. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both slightly below league average with a 12.5-degree launch angle. It is more perplexing that his results are so good given that his main four pitches are all thrown towards the top of the zone.
Despite pitching to contact, Kirby has managed to avoid baserunners while averaging almost 6 1/3 IP/GS. It is a bit difficult to understand how exactly he has done it in terms of the quality of contact he has allowed. His 3.71 SIERA is still pretty good but suggests that he has gotten lucky in terms of his batted-ball results.
That being said, it is not uncommon for some players to consistently outperform their underlying metrics. Kirby may be one of those players, and fantasy managers should continue to have confidence in him until that changes.
Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays
13-7, 3.58 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 24.9% Strikeout Rate
Zach Eflin has certainly earned his three-year, $40 million deal with the Rays to this point, going 13-7 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 24.9% strikeout rate in 24 starts. His current WHIP is a career-best and is one of the best in the league. What about his game has helped lead to his success?
The Rays' magic seems to have worked well. He has shifted to fewer, better pitches. His main pitch arsenal now comprises a sinker, curveball, and cutter, the latter two having much more spin than previously in his career. Eflin has never put runners on for free, but the changes in his pitch mix have led to an avoidance of hard contact with a boost in strikeouts.
It is easier to believe in improvements like this when they are backed by proven organizations. It is worth noting that Eflin's second half has not been nearly as good as his first half, although his underlying numbers during that time have still been solid. This makes things slightly trickier for fantasy managers, but Eflin's underlying profile still seems like one to believe in for the rest of the season.
WHIP Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 20, 2023.
Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals
7-10, 3.96 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 20.0% Strikeout Rate
While Josiah Gray earned his first All-Star appearance this season, he has come back to earth in the second half. The 25-year-old is now 7-10 with a 3.96 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 20.0% strikeout rate. His WHIP has been an issue all season and may have something to do with his regression. Can fantasy managers expect more from him?
It is hard to find continued success when you put runners on for free. Gray's first-half walk rate wasn't great at 10.8% and that has gotten a bit worse in the second half at 11.2%. He has walked three batters in four of his six second-half starts, which could certainly help explain his 5.83 ERA in that time.
The walks seem to be the biggest issue. Gray has cut down on the home runs and has allowed softer contact all season long, although his 15.9-degree launch angle is still a bit nerve-racking. Further, his 5.67 second-half SIERA suggests his overall batted-ball profile has left a lot to be desired.
Gray has dealt with a number of issues throughout his career that have prevented him from finding success. While he has corrected some of them this season, other issues have cropped up. Specifically, his high walk rate has finally caught up to him. That unfortunately limits his fantasy value for the rest of the season severely.
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves
12-10, 3.54 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 24.7% Strikeout Rate
Charlie Morton's season 3.54 ERA is solid overall, but he has had an up-and-down season. One of the things that has stood out throughout is an uncharacteristically high 1.43 WHIP. The veteran has been a reliable fantasy asset throughout his career, but should fantasy managers be hesitant to trust him down the stretch?
The main issue appears to be that Morton is simply not throwing pitches in the strike zone as often as he had. His 11.2% walk rate is the highest since 2016 and his 45.2% zone rate is the lowest of his career in the Statcast era. It is also one of the lowest marks among qualified pitchers. Morton does have a league-average chase rate, but that won't cut it when missing the zone that much.
He has also gotten a bit unlucky on balls in play. Despite a league-average batted-ball profile, Morton has endured a .318 BABIP that is a little higher than his .304 career mark. The good thing is that his curveball-fastball duo has still led to strikeouts. While his 24.7% strikeout rate is lower than it has been the past couple of seasons, it is still a mark that can help fantasy managers.
Morton has been frustrating because he has had such encouraging highs mixed with poor lows. Too many walks have been the underlying issue for him, which has affected all of his metrics. At this point in the season, fantasy managers in roto leagues should pick and choose their matchups with him. Fantasy managers in points leagues can probably risk starting him the rest of the way.
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