Statcast Hitter Leaderboard - Second-Half xBA

August 25, 2021

Statcast hitter leaderboard for xBA entering Week 23 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Pierre Camus reviews second-half xBA for key batters of interest.

As we revisit expected statistics such as xBA, it's only logical to focus on recent performance in the second half. In this week's column, I will evaluate the xBA leaderboard since the All-Star break, using 30 plate appearances as a minimum.

Rather than run down the entire leaderboard, we'll skip over the obvious names and highlight players of interest that might be unfamiliar to fantasy managers. Any help that can be provided from now until season's end in the form of waiver wire adds is always a huge boost.

All Statcast data is current as of August 23, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com

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Surprising xBA Second-Half Leaders

Yonny Hernandez, Texas Rangers

.349 xBA since 7/15/21

Maybe Hernandez will turn out to be what I thought Anderson Tejeda could this season. Hernandez was called up on August 5 to join a Rangers lineup that is practically unrecognizable even to local fans. He's batting leadoff these days and holding down third base, so the fact he's also got the highest xBA since the All-Star break among batters with at least 30 PA should draw interest in deep leagues.

The profile is simple – there's no power whatsoever to speak of. He has a grand total of four home runs across all minor league levels since 2015. There is some speed, however, as he's already stolen three bases in 53 plate appearances. He had 21 SB across 251 PA in Triple-A before his call-up. If this sounds like Nicky Lopez light, that's about right. This also isn't a very good lineup so the run totals won't be high.

Avisail Garcia, Milwaukee Brewers

.324 xBA since 7/15/21

One of the biggest offensive drivers behind the Brewers' run to claim the NL Central this year hasn't been Christian Yelich but 30-year-old Avisail Garcia. His .284 xBA is 91st percentile on the season and it keeps going up as the season progresses. He's also working on a career-best .516 xSLG and has already achieved his personal best with 24 HR on the season.

While Garcia is a veteran and has done this before (remember his All-Star 2017 season when he led the league in batting at .330?), it still registers as a surprise. He's coming off a season where he hit .238 and barely barreled the ball. Garcia has been hot all year long so this recent span of dominance at the plate shouldn't be overlooked.

Ty France, Seattle Mariners

.317 xBA since 7/15/21

The hip injury to Evan White mercifully cut his season short and allowed the team to move Ty France to first base on a regular basis. He has responded by steadily improving his batting average since that down month.

Fantasy managers with short memories may simply recall France getting off to a hot start in April and then falling out of relevance. He's been quietly scorching the ball throughout the second half, batting .358 with seven HR, 21 RBI, and 25 R over the past 149 PA. The fact he's only rostered in 65% of Yahoo leagues means not everyone has caught on.

France is batting cleanup most nights and qualifies at every infield position except shortstop. His power won't wow and there isn't any speed, but his productivity is there even if the highlight-reel plays aren't.

Josh Harrison, Oakland A's

.312 xBA since 7/15/21

Harrison wasn't the biggest name to change teams ahead of the 2021 MLB trade deadline, but he's got to be one of the happiest players since that time. After spending the last three seasons on bottom-dwelling teams like Pittsburgh, Detroit, and this year's Washington squad, Harrison gets to join an Oakland team in contention for the playoffs. He was already hot since the All-Star break, hitting .412 in 56 PA with the Nats before getting dealt. He's mostly kept it going, hitting .277 while hitting a homer and stealing three bases. In all, his .312 second-half xBA is 10th-highest with the 30-PA threshold.

Harrison is doing a little bit of everything, playing 2B, 3B, SS, and LF for the A's. He can do the same for fantasy teams, helping to fill up the stat sheet across the board.

Rafael Ortega, Chicago Cubs

.309 xBA since 7/15/21

Now leading off, playing center field for your Chicago Cubs......Rafael Ortega. That's not what fans were hoping to hear at this juncture in the season but it's the harsh reality of a rebuilding project. Ortega is with his seventh different organization and had four previous stints at the Major League level, none with any success. This time, at age 30, it's been a different story. Ortega is slashing .314/.372/.483 on the season and has a solid .278 xBA that has jumped up to .309 since the break.

Ortega has been crushing fastballs to the tune of a .404 AVG and .317 xBA. He hasn't been able to connect with breaking balls, though. That's been a problem for him throughout his career. Luckily, Ortega is seeing fastballs 54.1% of the time and won't be pitched around very much based on what's behind him in the order. He can take advantage of his situation and keep mashing so he should stick in fantasy lineups.

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