Statcast Hitter Leaderboard - Launch Angle

August 9, 2021

Statcast hitter leaderboard for launch angle entering Week 21 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Pierre Camus reviews expected statistics for key batters of interest.

One of the most basic components of Statcast metrics is launch angle, which is incorporated in Sweet Spot% and Barrel rate among other things. While launch angle alone doesn't tell the entire tale of a batted ball, much less an entire season's worth of offensive stats, it can serve as an entry point to a player's profile which needs further examining.

This is one case where the leaders aren't necessarily the best performers and vice versa. As it stands, some of the hitters at the high end of average launch angle may be hitting the ball in the air too often, while others need a bit of a lift. I'll break down some of the notable names into three categories to determine who needs to make adjustments by raising or lowering their launch angle as well as some hitters who are doing it just right but without the expected results. Let's dive in.

All Statcast data is current as of August 9, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com

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Too High

Cody Bellinger (OF, LAD)

23.5° AVG Launch Angle

We expect Bellinger to hit a lot of fly balls but they're supposed to leave the park. He went deep for just the sixth time all season on Saturday and followed it up with his seventh on Sunday, so maybe he starting to lock in at the plate just in time for the stretch run. It's been a miserable first 100 games, however, only 53 of which he's actually played in. Bellinger's career LA is 17.7 and he's never posted a rate higher than 18 degrees over a season.

One might think that a career-high 38.6% fly ball rate would make for more home runs but instead it's led to a career-low 9.2% HR/FB%. He's struggled to generate his typical power production; a lower hard-hit rate is just one reason along with struggles against the fastball. Still, there's no harm in aiming for Bellinger as a buy-low trade target before your league's deadline if you're punting batting average.

Eugenio Suarez (3B/SS, CIN)

20.4° AVG Launch Angle

Of all the issues Suarez has had this season, elevating the ball too much wouldn't figure to be one. In fact, it might be the key to his declining average. Suarez has retained his home run production with 22 on the year and 61 RBI but the .176 average has negated much of his fantasy value. This is the continuation of trend and it's coincided with him elevating the ball more.

Suarez has a higher fly ball rate than ever on breaking balls and offspeed pitches; his FB% on fastballs is exceeded barely by his 2020 level and again in his rookie year but has been going up steadily. This is not a positive trend because it's resulting in more flyouts, along with the strikeout rate that is also spiking. Suarez could be an adjustment away from making better contact regularly but it doesn't seem as if that fix is coming soon.

Victor Robles (OF, WAS)

20.4° AVG Launch Angle

Not to beat a dead horse but Robles has again been one of the biggest busts of the season. Ideally, a guy with Sprint Speed in the 81st percentile isn't among the leaders in launch angle. That's especially the case when he's one of the worst in exit velocity at 83.9 MPH and Hard Hit% at 26.4%. His overall FB% is actually around league average but he pops the ball up far too much. The league average is 7.1% PU% and he's at 11.9% in 2021 with an 11.2% PU% for his career. Robles is still a hot mess at the plate and now finds himself in the midst of a rebuild in Washington. Despite the enticing tools, there's nothing to see here for fantasy managers.

Too Low

Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B, PIT)

2.8° AVG Launch Angle

The power Hayes displayed in his 2020 debut was a pleasant surprise to those who saw him as a glove-first prospect with a low HR ceiling. He went deep five times in 95 plate appearances with a 30.8% FB%, which made for an unsustainable 25% HR/FB%. He just tied last year's total with his fifth home run of 2021 and it took 236 plate appearances this time around.

An early-season wrist injury is likely to blame for his power loss. He homered on Opening Day, got injured the very next game, and hasn't been the same since. Of all players with at least 100 PA, he has the fifth-lowest average launch angle and a 28.2% SwSp% that is 25th-lowest. Hayes may not ever qualify as a true power hitter but look to these numbers to rise next year with an offseason to get right.

Christian Yelich (OF, MIL)

4.9° AVG Launch Angle

Yelich's massively disappointing 2021 can similarly be blamed on poor health. Numerous back injuries have held him out of action and restricted his power. His exit velocity has been among the best in the league every year of the Statcast era until 2021 where it has fallen to 90.3 MPH. Prior to 2018 when he broke out in Milwaukee, many analysts were excited by his rising fly ball rate that would allow him to tap into his power. He's actually posting the second-highest fly ball rate of his career at 20.5% but it's a far cry from the 28.1% of 2019 and it's come with weaker contact. This is another player who may not "get right" until a long offseason of healing.

Nate Lowe (1B, TEX)

6.6° AVG Launch Angle

When you're a 6'4", 220 lb slugger with excellent exit velocity, fly balls are your friend. He isn't Albert Pujols on the basepaths but Lowe isn't doing himself any favors by hitting the ball on the ground 53.1% of the time. A launch angle adjustment would help him tap into that natural power and be much more productive. Things seem to be getting worse not better lately, unfortunately. Lowe is batting .185 with an 11-1 K-BB rate, no homers, and one RBI in August so far. There is plenty of upside here but fantasy managers should take a wait-and-see approach before inserting him back into lineups.

Just Right

Dominic Smith (1B/OF, NYM)

14.7° AVG Launch Angle

If only he weren't a Met, Smith would be doing so much better. No, really. Smith is part of the most underachieving offense in the National League and his home/road splits reflect that.

Smith's launch angle is in the ideal range and he has the fifth-highest Sweet Spot rate at 42.7%. The area that needs improvement is exit velocity; his 92.5 EV on FB/LD is far below what it should be. He is basically the reverse of Nate Lowe (above) in that sense. Smith was able to hit for power with a near-identical avg EV last season, so hold out hope that he and the Mets offense figure things out before the year is up.

Ryan McMahon (1B/2B/3B, COL)

15.4° AVG Launch Angle

The Rockies' current third baseman has bounced around the diamond but remained consistent at the plate. Placing just behind Dom Smith with a 42.6% SwSp%, McMahon is slugging a career-best .477 and surprisingly leads his team in home runs with 18. That might say more about the state of the Rockies than anything but credit is due to McMahon as well. He's cut down on his strikeout rate and has a 47.1% HardHit% to boot. As the season goes on, he is sacrificing power for contact and raising his average in the process. That's a good sign for a hitter entering his prime as he becomes a more well-rounded offensive threat.

Ji-Man Choi (1B, TB)

17.5° AVG Launch Angle

Choi is a bit enigmatic and difficult to predict. He posted a miserable .190/.272/.298 expected slash line in 2020 and was a platoon player at first base earlier this year. Now, with the moves Tampa has made, he's seeing regular playing time and batting fifth most nights. He's in a great position to succeed and is making quality contact as far as launch angle. He's been a line drive machine, in fact, at a 30.1% LD% this year. Yet, he's only batting .239 on the season. A .324 BABIP suggests some regression could come but it should be noted that despite his ability to drive the ball, he isn't the type of player who will power up enough to help fantasy teams with his low fly ball rate and cavernous home park.

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