X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Hitter Leaderboard - Launch Angle

dominic smith fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Statcast hitter leaderboard for launch angle entering Week 21 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Pierre Camus reviews expected statistics for key batters of interest.

One of the most basic components of Statcast metrics is launch angle, which is incorporated in Sweet Spot% and Barrel rate among other things. While launch angle alone doesn't tell the entire tale of a batted ball, much less an entire season's worth of offensive stats, it can serve as an entry point to a player's profile which needs further examining.

This is one case where the leaders aren't necessarily the best performers and vice versa. As it stands, some of the hitters at the high end of average launch angle may be hitting the ball in the air too often, while others need a bit of a lift. I'll break down some of the notable names into three categories to determine who needs to make adjustments by raising or lowering their launch angle as well as some hitters who are doing it just right but without the expected results. Let's dive in.

All Statcast data is current as of August 9, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Too High

Cody Bellinger (OF, LAD)

23.5° AVG Launch Angle

We expect Bellinger to hit a lot of fly balls but they're supposed to leave the park. He went deep for just the sixth time all season on Saturday and followed it up with his seventh on Sunday, so maybe he starting to lock in at the plate just in time for the stretch run. It's been a miserable first 100 games, however, only 53 of which he's actually played in. Bellinger's career LA is 17.7 and he's never posted a rate higher than 18 degrees over a season.

One might think that a career-high 38.6% fly ball rate would make for more home runs but instead it's led to a career-low 9.2% HR/FB%. He's struggled to generate his typical power production; a lower hard-hit rate is just one reason along with struggles against the fastball. Still, there's no harm in aiming for Bellinger as a buy-low trade target before your league's deadline if you're punting batting average.

Eugenio Suarez (3B/SS, CIN)

20.4° AVG Launch Angle

Of all the issues Suarez has had this season, elevating the ball too much wouldn't figure to be one. In fact, it might be the key to his declining average. Suarez has retained his home run production with 22 on the year and 61 RBI but the .176 average has negated much of his fantasy value. This is the continuation of trend and it's coincided with him elevating the ball more.

Suarez has a higher fly ball rate than ever on breaking balls and offspeed pitches; his FB% on fastballs is exceeded barely by his 2020 level and again in his rookie year but has been going up steadily. This is not a positive trend because it's resulting in more flyouts, along with the strikeout rate that is also spiking. Suarez could be an adjustment away from making better contact regularly but it doesn't seem as if that fix is coming soon.

Victor Robles (OF, WAS)

20.4° AVG Launch Angle

Not to beat a dead horse but Robles has again been one of the biggest busts of the season. Ideally, a guy with Sprint Speed in the 81st percentile isn't among the leaders in launch angle. That's especially the case when he's one of the worst in exit velocity at 83.9 MPH and Hard Hit% at 26.4%. His overall FB% is actually around league average but he pops the ball up far too much. The league average is 7.1% PU% and he's at 11.9% in 2021 with an 11.2% PU% for his career. Robles is still a hot mess at the plate and now finds himself in the midst of a rebuild in Washington. Despite the enticing tools, there's nothing to see here for fantasy managers.

 

Too Low

Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B, PIT)

2.8° AVG Launch Angle

The power Hayes displayed in his 2020 debut was a pleasant surprise to those who saw him as a glove-first prospect with a low HR ceiling. He went deep five times in 95 plate appearances with a 30.8% FB%, which made for an unsustainable 25% HR/FB%. He just tied last year's total with his fifth home run of 2021 and it took 236 plate appearances this time around.

An early-season wrist injury is likely to blame for his power loss. He homered on Opening Day, got injured the very next game, and hasn't been the same since. Of all players with at least 100 PA, he has the fifth-lowest average launch angle and a 28.2% SwSp% that is 25th-lowest. Hayes may not ever qualify as a true power hitter but look to these numbers to rise next year with an offseason to get right.

Christian Yelich (OF, MIL)

4.9° AVG Launch Angle

Yelich's massively disappointing 2021 can similarly be blamed on poor health. Numerous back injuries have held him out of action and restricted his power. His exit velocity has been among the best in the league every year of the Statcast era until 2021 where it has fallen to 90.3 MPH. Prior to 2018 when he broke out in Milwaukee, many analysts were excited by his rising fly ball rate that would allow him to tap into his power. He's actually posting the second-highest fly ball rate of his career at 20.5% but it's a far cry from the 28.1% of 2019 and it's come with weaker contact. This is another player who may not "get right" until a long offseason of healing.

Nate Lowe (1B, TEX)

6.6° AVG Launch Angle

When you're a 6'4", 220 lb slugger with excellent exit velocity, fly balls are your friend. He isn't Albert Pujols on the basepaths but Lowe isn't doing himself any favors by hitting the ball on the ground 53.1% of the time. A launch angle adjustment would help him tap into that natural power and be much more productive. Things seem to be getting worse not better lately, unfortunately. Lowe is batting .185 with an 11-1 K-BB rate, no homers, and one RBI in August so far. There is plenty of upside here but fantasy managers should take a wait-and-see approach before inserting him back into lineups.

 

Just Right

Dominic Smith (1B/OF, NYM)

14.7° AVG Launch Angle

If only he weren't a Met, Smith would be doing so much better. No, really. Smith is part of the most underachieving offense in the National League and his home/road splits reflect that.

AVG OBP SLG HR
Home .220 .290 .293 3
Away .284 .343 .464 8

Smith's launch angle is in the ideal range and he has the fifth-highest Sweet Spot rate at 42.7%. The area that needs improvement is exit velocity; his 92.5 EV on FB/LD is far below what it should be. He is basically the reverse of Nate Lowe (above) in that sense. Smith was able to hit for power with a near-identical avg EV last season, so hold out hope that he and the Mets offense figure things out before the year is up.

Ryan McMahon (1B/2B/3B, COL)

15.4° AVG Launch Angle

The Rockies' current third baseman has bounced around the diamond but remained consistent at the plate. Placing just behind Dom Smith with a 42.6% SwSp%, McMahon is slugging a career-best .477 and surprisingly leads his team in home runs with 18. That might say more about the state of the Rockies than anything but credit is due to McMahon as well. He's cut down on his strikeout rate and has a 47.1% HardHit% to boot. As the season goes on, he is sacrificing power for contact and raising his average in the process. That's a good sign for a hitter entering his prime as he becomes a more well-rounded offensive threat.

Ji-Man Choi (1B, TB)

17.5° AVG Launch Angle

Choi is a bit enigmatic and difficult to predict. He posted a miserable .190/.272/.298 expected slash line in 2020 and was a platoon player at first base earlier this year. Now, with the moves Tampa has made, he's seeing regular playing time and batting fifth most nights. He's in a great position to succeed and is making quality contact as far as launch angle. He's been a line drive machine, in fact, at a 30.1% LD% this year. Yet, he's only batting .239 on the season. A .324 BABIP suggests some regression could come but it should be noted that despite his ability to drive the ball, he isn't the type of player who will power up enough to help fantasy teams with his low fly ball rate and cavernous home park.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Statcast & Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF