Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Fastball Run Values (Week 13)

June 23, 2021

Statcast batter risers and fallers in Week 13 of the 2021 MLB season according to run values for fastballs. Pierre Camus evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.

The news regarding MLB's unexpected crackdown on foreign substances has been well-documented by now. It will surely have a negative impact on pitchers, but the effect on hitters may largely depend on their batted-ball profile.

The pitch that has seen the biggest discrepancy for the top aces due to increased spin rates is the good old four-seamer. Everyone throws in the mid-to-high 90s these days. What separates a good fastball from a mediocre one is its movement which is generated by spin. We won't get technical here because the focus is supposed to be on hitters, after all. Instead, let's examine some of the top hitters in terms of run value by how well (or poorly) they hit the fastball. It might be interesting to check in later this year and see how this data has changed.

All Statcast metrics are current as of June 21, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com.

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Fastball Run Value Studs

Vladito and Shotime are hitting the snot out of the four-seamer, which should come as no surprise. We've previously covered Jesse Winker and Brandon Crawford in this series. So let's focus on some of the most unexpected names at the top of the leaderboard to see if they can sustain their success.

Chris Taylor, L.A. Dodgers

Taylor has been an essential cog in the Dodgers' lineup with injuries to Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager taking their tolls. He's responded with one of his best seasons so far with 10 HR, 37 RBI, 53 R, seven SB and a solid .266/.386/.464 slash line. His walk rate has been escalating the past few years and is at a career-best 13.9%, one of the tops in the majors. For the most part, his bread-and-butter has been hitting the fastball well. Curveballs are the only other individual pitch that he's batted over .300 against in multiple seasons over his career. His .280 AVG on fastballs is low compared to .340 last year and .316 the year before. His slugging rate on four-seamers keep rising though.

Taylor has upped his game against breaking stuff, batting an adequate .246 AVG on them after dwelling below .200 the past two seasons. He is the type of well-balanced player that gives you a little bit of everything in roto leagues and seems to be getting a little better with age.

Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates

Reynolds has quietly been solid all season long for a terrible team. With little lineup support, he's still managed to cross the plate 41 times and drive in 36 runs along with 12 homers. Most notably, he's rebounded massively in the average category, and not just against fastballs. Out of all the outliers in 2020, his might be the most out there.

The biggest rebound is a leap above his rookie-season success against fastballs, where he's now posting a .317 xBA and 46.9% Hard Hit rate. His overall Hard% is just 37.6% and he has just two homers against any other pitch type, whereas the other 10 HR all came against fastballs. Reynolds is seeing fastballs 52% of the time, surprisingly, which is a benefit of having no other threats behind you in the batting order. The counting stats might end up being sufficient to keep him as a fantasy OF3 if he keeps his average up near the .300 mark.

Steven Duggar, San Francisco Giants

Although Mitch Haniger shows up at 15th, Duggar and seven others are tied with him at a run value of eight. Duggar has the highest run value per 100 plate appearances, though and his 4.4 RV/100 is 12th-highest in the league. Any guess who's #1 in that category? It's actually Jacob deGrom, who's got a .406 xBA on opposing pitchers' fastballs this year. Let's just hand him the Cy Young and MVP awards right now.

Back to Duggar, he's joined veteran teammates Crawford and Evan Longoria as some of the best against the four-seamer this year. Duggar is crushing it with a .463 AVG and .806 SLG, supported by a .330 xBA and .660 xSLG vs fastballs.

A Steven Duggar home run turns into a boat vs. net race #ResilientSF pic.twitter.com/nGB8D20L0e

— Lunch Break Baseball (@LunchBreakBB) June 16, 2021

Here's the rub: he stinks against everything else. Duggar is hitting .147 against breaking balls and .063 against offspeed pitches. If opponents read the book on Duggar, you'd think he would never see another fastball again. This is a bad sign for a precipitous drop in his production once he begins getting attacked smarter by pitchers. Stream him for now but don't count on him as a long-term asset.

Fastball Run Value Duds

Some of these players like Austin Hedges have no business being on fantasy rosters, but there are some names on here that had fairly high draft stock in the preseason. Can these players turn things around or have we seen enough to stay away?

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

File this under the "season-long stats can be misleading" category. Gurriel got off to a putrid start, slashing .224/.256/.316 in April. He has steadily improved since and has his current slash line at .255/.275/.397. That's not great, but he's been playable in fantasy for the past couple of weeks at least. While his allergy to walks has gotten worse, his RBI potential in a stacked Jays lineup is still too tempting to pass up.

Be cautious, however, as he may be on the downslide again. His struggles against the fastball seem to be coming back. His xBA vs four-seamers has actually gone down each month and his xwOBA is back down near April values.

Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees

If there's one detail that we could point to in identifying Torres' struggles, it would less effectiveness versus four-seamers. The early book was that he only feasted on fastballs and couldn't hit breaking stuff. Now the tables are turned. Perhaps in an effort to be a more well-rounded hitter, he's lost his greatest tool. Torres' main appeal is power, so let's examine his slugging percentage by pitch group over the years:

Right after his breakout 2019 campaign he fell off in nearly every facet, but we see his slugging has rebounded greatly against breaking balls. It keeps getting worse for fastballs. Torres went from a .293 xBA and .698 xSLG against four-seamers in 2019 to a .203 xBA and .406 xSLG in 2021. For a player who is only 24 years old, this type of drop-off is alarming. It's great that he is hitting the slider better, but until he can consistently flex power against the most commonly-seen pitch type, we can't ignore the red flags.

Matt Chapman, Oakland A's

Chapman is the last of our sluggers whose power has evaporated in 2021. After three straight years living among the league leaders in exit velocity with an average mark over 92.7 MPH, he's down to 88.9 this year. He's not someone you target for average, which is arguably a less-important area than most seasons. However, his .225 AVG is becoming a category sink. It also marks the third straight season his batting average has dropped, with a .210 xBA in the fifth percentile.

The culprit? You guessed it - four-seamers. Chapman is hitting a mere .145 against the pitch this season, simply because he is chasing and missing more.

This explains why his 40.7% Whiff rate against four-seamers is sixth-worst among those with at least 50 PA. Chapman is a strikeout machine who is not generating enough power in return. Matt Olson was able to correct his issues from 2020 but Chapman doesn't appear primed to do the same and should be benched in most leagues.

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