Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Exit Velocity Analysis for Week 8

May 18, 2021

Statcast batter risers and fallers in Week 8 of the 2021 MLB season according to exit velocity on fly balls and line drives (FB/LD). Pierre Camus evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.

Exit velocity is all the rage these days, but how meaningful is it really? It depends.

A high exit velocity is worthless if it's smashed into the ground right at a defender. Increasing the miles per hour rate on line drives and fly balls typically result in better outcomes and are more predictive of power. That's why we're going to look at some of the noteworthy (read: unexpected) leaders in EV strictly for fly balls and line drives combined (FB/LD). This can tell us which hitters are displaying power early in the 2021 season and might continue to do so.

All Statcast metrics are current as of May 17, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com.

FB/LD Exit Velo Studs

Carlos Santana, Kansas City Royals

97.2 MPH Exit Velocity (FB/LD)

Once you get past the top dozen names on the exit velocity leaderboard like Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and such, you'll see the Supernatural checking in. Santana is having a resurgent season in a big way, already matching his 2020 homer total of eight in 20 fewer games. He's never been known for a high batting average, but his .199 mark last year was unacceptable. He is up to .261 on the strength of a career-high .406 xWOBACON. In particular, he's slugging breaking balls better than ever after struggling mightily against them in 2020.

Nick Solak, Texas Rangers

96.2 MPH Exit Velocity (FB/LD)

The appeal behind Solak as a preseason draft sleeper was more speed than pop. Turns out he's delivering on both fronts. Solak isn't supposed to be near the leaders in barreled balls but here we are as he has 12 in the early going, leading to seven homers and seven doubles. His sprint speed is in the 95th percentile but he's only swiped two bases for a team that is again among the leaders in SB attempts per game, coming in at fourth-highest. If only he'd stop getting extra-base hits, maybe he'd have more steal opportunities...

Solak did produce 27 HR in 2019 across two minor-league levels, so this power surge isn't out of nowhere. With an expected slash line of .269/.354/.464, Solak is inspiring confidence that he can continue to be a top-10 option at a thin second base position that has been hit hard by injury and underachievement.

Adam Duvall, Miami Marlins

96.2 MPH Exit Velocity (FB/LD)

The Godfather III of outfielders, just when you thought you were out, he pulls you back in. Duvall went most of the offseason without a job before landing as a fourth outfielder in Miami. Not what anyone was hoping to see, so he went largely undrafted. Injuries happen, of course, and Duvall is again making the most of his playing time. His 8.8% Brls/PA ranks in the 91st percentile and his 52.3% Hard Hit rate is 89th percentile. Despite playing in an unfavorable home park, Duvall has launched eight homers, tied with Carlos Santana and Mike Trout, after accumulating 130 AB.

Since playing time is no longer an issue, we can only point to batting average as a negative. His current .231 xBA is the second-best mark of his career, sadly. You can't expect much better than he's giving now in that sense but the HR and RBI will keep coming as long as he's batting cleanup. This is the time to start streaming Duvall, as he's collected six hits in the past four games and has a homer with three RBI in each of the past two contests. The Marlins stay on the road in Philly for three more games too.

FB/LD Exit Velo Duds

Jeimer Candelario, Detroit Tigers

90.6 MPH Exit Velocity (FB/LD)

We saw some promising signs from Candelario last season, including a 47.1% Hard% and another step up in exit velocity for the third straight year. Entering his age-27 season with a regular gig at third base in the heart of the Tigers lineup, everything looked to be falling in place for him to break out. Guess we forgot about that whole being in the Tigers lineup thing, though.

Detroit is 27th in team average, 28th in runs scored, and 28th in home runs. It doesn't help playing in Comerica Park, which has the fourth-lowest HR Park Factor in the bigs. Candelario is teeing off on fastballs but struggling with breaking balls, which has been a recurring issue. Now experiencing a knee issue, it's best to back off of him completely.

Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees

90.7 MPH Exit Velocity (FB/LD)

Torres is also in prime position to produce gold but he been giving fantasy teams nothing but rocks. While it's great that he's developed solid plate discipline (7.8% K-BB%), it has come at the expense of quality contact. Torres has a career-low 84.8% exit velocity and is near the bottom in FB/LD EV despite his reputation as a power-hitting middle infielder.  Honestly, Torres doesn't truly profile as a power hitter. His career 36% Hard% is barely above the current league average of 35.2%. He has the raw power and youth on his side but those in redraft leagues might want to accept the harsh reality that he isn't a top-12 2B option.

Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies

91.7 MPH Exit Velocity (FB/LD)

A down season shouldn't be altogether shocking after the Nolan Arenado fiasco. This offense doesn't resemble that of past Rockies teams and Story is suffering because of it. Fantasy managers can't be too disappointed with four HR, six SB, and 21 RBI but it's not quite first-round value. He could go on a power binge, since a few well-barreled balls could spike his low EV this early in the season. He does have a 40.4% Sweet Spot% and his 22.9% K% is the lowest of his career, so he's seeing the ball well.

What should concern Story's fantasy managers is an impending trade out of Colorado. His career splits show a player who hits 54 points higher has has 67 more HR in Coors than away in roughly the same amount of at-bats. This is the time to sell.

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