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Statcast batter risers and fallers in Week 5 of the 2021 MLB season according to contact rate. Pierre Camus evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.
Last week, we examined whiff rate risers and fallers so it's time to investigate the opposite side of the coin with contact rate. Many metrics are yet to warrant deep examination for 2021 since teams are approximately 20 games into the season. Contact rate takes about 100 plate appearances to begin stabilizing. While it is admittedly a tad premature to conduct a league-wide analysis of this statistic, we finally had the first player crack 100 PA and Jake Cronenworth happens to be one of the players we'll discuss in detail below.
Contact rate is exactly what it sounds like - the percentage of swings that result in any sort of contact. While making contact doesn't always result in a base hit or positive outcome, a higher rate is clearly a better indicator of success since it also means fewer swings and misses, which I'm pretty sure never results in positive outcomes for hitters. For reference, the MLB league average on Contact Rate is 75%, Zone Contact% is 82.2% and Chase Contact% is 58.9% in 2021.
When you're done here, check out this week's pitcher Statcast analysis on launch angle. *All Statcast metrics are current as of April 25, 2021 and taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com.
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Contact Rate Risers
Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics
79.6% Zone Contact% (+9.5%), 68.6% Chase Contact% (+20.5%)
After a rough 2020 that saw his average drop to .195 by season's end, Olson has pulled a complete reversal. He is among the league leaders in xBA at .327 and has dropped his strikeout rate to 14.7%, down from a career-worst 31.4% K% last year.
He is one of the biggest risers in contact both inside and outside of the strike zone so far and is leading the red-hot A's through their winning streak that just ended at 13. The million-dollar question now is: can he keep it up? Olson looks to have made major strides in plate discipline, sporting a 6.3% K-BB%. He is also going about his usual business by knocking the seams off the ball with a 20.7% Barrel rate; he has been in the top 10 percentile for Barrel rate in four of the past five seasons with 2020 being the exception.
In his age-27 season, we could be witnessing prime Olson breaking out for a career year. I hate to warn of any regression or letdown now that the streak is over because that's no fun. We do have to consider the perspective that his value may be at its peak early on, so I wouldn't blame anyone for flipping him in exchange for a struggling star like Ozzie Albies who may return more roto value through the remainder of the season.
Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres
94% Zone Contact% (+4.3%), 79.5% Chase Contact% (+18.3%)
We really shouldn't be surprised that Cronenworth is a contact machine after he posted an expected slash line of .328/.396/.538 as a rookie, finishing with a .285 average. His overall contact rate was already high at 85.2% in 2020 but he's somehow managed to make big leaps across the board. Cronenworth is third among all qualified hitters with a 92.4% contact rate.
As mentioned above, contact in itself isn't the end-all-be-all for hitter analysis. He has tremendous plate discipline, sporting a 4.7% K-BB% reminiscent of last year, and has a ton of quality at-bats. All that has only delivered him a .264 batting average that actually should be lower based on a .243 xBA. Despite a solid line drive rate, he's producing more pop-ups and flyouts than before by getting under the ball too much. Most concerning is a 27.6% Hard% that is near the dregs of the league. I hate to say this fits the narrative of "better real-life than fantasy player" but his value to the Padres is definitely higher than in fantasy right now. If not for the three steals, he'd be outright benchable in all but NL-only leagues.
Garrett Hampson, Colorado Rockies
80.4% Zone Contact (+1.9%), 56.8% Chase Contact (+18.8%)
Hampson's overall contact rate isn't exemplary at 78.2%, but he's making gains and that's what we should focus on. Most of his metrics are right around league-average, including a modest three-point advantage in Contact%, a difference of one point or less in walk and strikeout rate, and a .010 difference in OBP. So he's not the next David Fletcher, but if he can reach base then he can run, and that's what we really care about.
Hampson's calling card is still speed. He ranks in the 99th percentile in sprint speed, placing fifth overall with 29.5 ft/sec and sixth in Home Plate to First Base speed at 4.21 seconds. He has swiped five bags already, which is good enough to tie for third in the majors these days. If Hampson keeps making contact, he may finally deliver on some of the promise that made him a high-end prospect for the Rockies.
Contact Rate Fallers
Andrew McCutchen, Philadelphia Phillies
79.3% Zone Contact% (-4.3%), 30.4% Chase Contact% (-31.4%)
The in-zone contact is down a slight tick but the chase rate is eye-catching. No player has seen his contact rate outside the zone plummet like Cutch, although Eugenio Suarez, subject of last week's whiff rate increase analysis, isn't too far behind. Now, there's a simple explanation for this - he's not chasing pitches. His Chase Rate is in the 95th percentile, which has led to a career-best 17.5% walk rate. This is good but we can't ignore the fact that when he does chase, he rarely make contact. Plus, there's the whole thing about his in-zone contact also falling.
McCutchen is finding ways on base via the free pass because he's not doing so otherwise. He's off to a terrible start, hitting .154 with one barrel accounting for his only home run. The former MVP is still leading off every day for the Phillies so the run-scoring potential is there if he can turn things around. Beware the precipitous drop-off at age 34, however, and be prepared to cut bait if needed.
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
75.2% Zone Contact% (-2.5%), 41.2% Chase Contact% (-16.3%)
As one of the organization's top overall prospects, Mountcastle was expected to build on his success as a rookie where he slashed .333/.386/.492 over 140 plate appearances. Instead, he is bottom-20 in overall contact rate at 66% and batting .167. His strikeout rate has increased to 32.5% and his walk rate has fallen, resulting in an xOBP in the fourth percentile.
Patience is advocated here, as Mountcastle enters his second MLB season. However, the early returns are concerning, especially since the minor league season is getting set to start and he could be a candidate to be optioned if his struggles continue. Anthony Santander is set to come off IL in a few days and the Orioles' other young outfielders like Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, and DJ Stewart are all faring well.
Jackie Bradley Jr., Milwaukee Brewers
72.3% Zone Contact% (-5%), 37.2% Chase Contact% (-25.2%)
There's not much to like about Bradley's Statcast profile. He's batting under .200, barely making contact, and has a Baez-esque allergy to taking walks. The thing is, I question why we would be interested in him anyway for fantasy purposes. Other than an extended hot streak in 2018 that temporarily boosted his value, he's never been a high average hitter.
That was also the only season he went above double-digit steals. Getting older and moving to Milwaukee wasn't going to be a recipe for success. Bradley isn't even cutting it as a fielder, posting a career-low Outs Above Average rate in the field.
The best advice here is not only to ignore JBJ but to avoid the Brewers' lineup until further notice, other than maybe Travis Shaw.
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