X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Hitter Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - Swing & Take Leaders for Week 5

whit merrifield fantasy baseball rankings second base draft sleepers

Statcast batter leaders and fallers in Week 5 of the 2022 MLB season according to swing and take metrics. Pierre Camus evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.

Admittedly, it's as exciting to measure 'swing and take' metrics as it would be to look at something like Barrels. One of them often results in a long fly ball that leaves the ballpark and puts runs on the scoreboard. The other can be a player staring at the umpire after watching a pitch hit the catcher's mitt. Still, the basis of any offensive player evaluation begins with plate discipline. The more likely a hitter is to swing at good pitches rather than bad ones, the better the results.

Statcast's swing and take leaderboard categorized pitches in four ways: Heart, Shadow, Chase, Waste. A thorough explanation of the rationale behind it is available on the TangoTiger blog. The Reader's Digest version is basically that hitters are assigned run values based on how often they swing based on the quality of the pitch based on location. Swinging more often at pitches in the heart of the zone is good, while chasing is bad. At the same time, taking pitches that are called strikes result in negative run values while laying off anything in the chase or waste zone is predictably a net positive. It all comes together in one neat formula with a +/- value to determine how smart a batter is approaching his plate appearances over the course of a season.

Now, let's dive into some noteworthy players at both ends of the spectrum to determine the significance early in the 2022 fantasy baseball. Look for more Statcast analysis for fantasy leagues as well as Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds on RotoBaller each week!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Swing & Take Leaders

All stats courtesy of BaseballSavant and current as of 5/9/22.

 

Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels

+15 Swing/Take Run Value (4 out of 300)

If you thought good batted-ball luck alone was to thank for Ward's hot start, you'd be wrong. Perhaps the reason that Joe Maddon loves Ward so much and decided to demote Jo Adell was that he values plate discipline more than we realize.

Ward isn't an exceptionally toolsy player, grading out at a 40 in power and 30 in speed. Where he excels is his hit tool, as well as fielding. This would seem to make him a better real-life player than fantasy asset  which is why he went undrafted across the fantasy landscape. But this year, he is putting it all together to provide help in the area where we didn't realize we'd need it most: batting average.

Ward is hitting .364 and has scored 20 runs, ranking second and seventh respectively among qualified batters in those categories. He swings far less at pitches in the Shadow zone, which is why he's drawing an eye-popping 19.8% walk rate. Some will point to a .440 BABIP and scream "regression is coming!" His .304 xBA and outstanding plate discipline say otherwise. The fact that he's hitting batting leadoff ahead of Mike Trout is a great sign that he'll see plenty of hittable pitches from here on out. Buy, buy, buy into the breakout season.

 

Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers

+12 Swing/Take Run Value (6 out of 300)

This would be an appropriate usage of the "It's Happening" gif from The Office. Many of our analysts at RotoBaller have been waiting for the Rowdy breakout and it seems to have arrived.


Rowdy isn't being more patient and he's not even striking out less. He's just knocking the crap out of the ball when he sees it near the zone.

His early numbers include a 98th percentile Barrel rate, 100th percentile xSLG, 100th percentile xwOBA, and 88th percentile xBA. That's pretty good.

Quality of contact has never really been the issue. The two small adjustments he's made that are making all the difference are to swing at fewer first pitches and wait for "his pitch" and to get his launch angle up. A spike in fly balls is a great thing to see for a power hitter. This might turn out to be a textbook example of a launch angle adjustment resulting in a true breakout.

 

Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins

+10 Swing/Take Run Value (11 out of 300)

Naysayers were dogging Jazz in the preseason because he struck out too much in 2021. Rather than predicting him to be a draft bust, they could have accepted the idea that an uber-talented 24-year-old could improve his plate discipline and harness his natural power.

Chisholm has a beautifully balanced profile, swinging at Heart pitches six percent above league average and laying off Shadow and Chase pitches three percent less. Most importantly, he is getting good wood on those pitches across the heart of the zone. Although his zone contact% is five points lower than the MLB average, he boasts a 50% hard-hit rate and a 27.3% line drive rate.

Those of us who bought into Jazz Chisholm on draft day were mainly attracted to the stolen base potential but are being rewarded handsomely with power and a .310 batting average from a soon-to-be All-Star infielder.

 

Swing & Take Strugglers

All stats courtesy of BaseballSavant and current as of 5/9/22.

 

Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals

-13 Swing/Take Run Value (300th out of 300)

It's really hard to believe that Merrifield, a career .286 hitter who has led the majors in hits twice, is performing so poorly over a long stretch. It has gotten to the point that Merrifield was dropped to sixth in the lineup from his customary leadoff spot. He's at .140/.183/.170 for a 2022 slash line, which is impressively bad for any Major Leaguer, much less a veteran who is a two-time All-Star.

There have been signs of a drop-off, as his expected batting average did drop 29 points last year compared to 2020. He's never been one to hit the ball especially hard, so making consistent contact is a necessity. But that's not the issue, as his strikeout rate is still extremely low and his overall contact rates are fairly similar to career norms.

As illustrated above, a -10 Swing Runs value is simply due to poor quality of contact. Don't get me wrong, he's never killed it in that area. He gets by on his superior eye and batted-ball placement, coupled with above-average speed. It doesn't appear as if any of that has gone away, given his 7.3% K-BB% and 87th percentile sprint speed. This might honestly be a case of bad luck. He's got a .157 BABIP despite no dramatic shifts in batted-ball profile other than a slight jump in fly ball rate. While the entire Royals offense has been a big letdown, it may be time to buy low on Merrifield before things turn around.

 

Jonathan Schoop, Detroit Tigers

-11 Swing/Take Run Value (298 out of 300)

Here's an easy one - Schoop is struggling in the Shadow zone as usual. His swing rate at Shadow pitches is 16% higher than MLB average and 10 points higher than his rate from last year. The truth is that he's always had difficulty here, posting a negative Swing/Take value in all but one of his nine Major League seasons.

Schoop is hurting in the Heart zone because he just isn't getting anything out of his swings, especially on fastballs which he typically handles well. This season, he's batting .146 on fastballs as opposed to .323 last year and .324 the year before. His expected average on fastballs is .319 and he's got a similar batted-ball profile with a strong 26% LD%. It sounds overly optimistic but the numbers tell us a hot streak could be in store.

He's never been one to walk much at all, so don't take away anything from his Take Runs. If he's going to turn things around, it will be by doing exactly what he has always done and just hoping for better results.

 

Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves

-11 Swing/Take Run Value (295 out of 300)

After the first two weeks of the season, it looked like Ozuna was back to being a superior hitter without missing a beat. Oddly enough, ever since Ronald Acuna came back, Ozuna hasn't benefited as expected. Instead, he's been taking it easy at the plate with just three hits in 31 at-bats in May.

The biggest thing that sticks out is a walk rate that is down to 4.8% for someone who usually hovers around the league average, if not slightly above it. Signs point to the power still being intact but he's being a little impatient at the plate and generating weaker contact. This shouldn't be a long-term concern, so hold for now.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Statcast & Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Miles Boykin1 hour ago

Heading To Chicago
Jalen Wilson2 hours ago

Sidelined On Thursday
Baker Mayfield2 hours ago

Tampa Bay Restructures Baker Mayfield's Deal
Case Keenum2 hours ago

Chicago Signs Case Keenum To One-Year Deal
Kyshawn George2 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Richaun Holmes2 hours ago

Out Versus Magic
Khris Middleton3 hours ago

Out Again Thursday Versus Magic
D'Angelo Russell3 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Noah Clowney3 hours ago

Done For Rest Of The Season
Jordan Poole3 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Scottie Barnes3 hours ago

Available On Thursday
Cedric Mullins3 hours ago

Goes Deep In Loss To Boston
Jonathan Drouin3 hours ago

Martin Necas, Jonathan Drouin Unavailable Thursday
Tyrese Maxey3 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of Season
Alexandar Georgiev3 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Henry Thrun4 hours ago

Returns From Nine-Game Absence Thursday
Taijuan Walker4 hours ago

Blanks Rockies For Six Innings To Earn First Win
Tanner Houck4 hours ago

Picks Up No-Decision In Four-Inning Outing
Olli Määttä4 hours ago

Olli Maatta Returns To Utah Lineup Thursday
Alex Bregman4 hours ago

Fills The Box Score In Win Over Orioles
Dylan Guenther4 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Jorge Polanco4 hours ago

Reinstated From Paternity List
Anthony Duclair4 hours ago

Takes Leave Of Absence
Carlos Rodriguez4 hours ago

Joining Brewers On Thursday
Alex Pietrangelo4 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Brady Tkachuk4 hours ago

Out On Thursday
DJ LeMahieu4 hours ago

"About A Week Away" From Taking Live At-Bats
Devin Williams4 hours ago

To Return From Paternity List On Friday
Jake Fraley4 hours ago

Gavin Lux, Jake Fraley Sitting Against A Lefty
Trey McBride5 hours ago

Cardinals Making Trey McBride The Highest-Paid Tight End In NFL History
Geno Smith5 hours ago

Raiders, Geno Smith Agree To Two-Year Extension
Jeferson Quero5 hours ago

Set Back With Hamstring Injury
Eguy Rosario6 hours ago

Clears Waivers, Outrighted To Triple-A
Xavier Isaac6 hours ago

Rays Hopeful Xavier Isaac Will Return In A Couple Of Weeks
Angel Genao6 hours ago

Won't Return Until June
Austin Wells6 hours ago

Being Rested On Thursday
Paul Goldschmidt6 hours ago

Sitting In Finale Against Arizona
Masataka Yoshida6 hours ago

Not Ready For Rehab Assignment
Edward Cabrera6 hours ago

Goes Three Innings In Rehab Start
6 hours ago

Tyler Shough Could Be Day 2 Pick In NFL Draft
Jake McCarthy7 hours ago

Gabriel Moreno, Jake McCarthy Sitting On Thursday
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

Shemar Stewart Meeting With Cowboys Staff
Ketel Marte7 hours ago

Sitting On Thursday After Signing Extension
New York Giants7 hours ago

Travis Hunter The Likely Pick For Giants?
Jake Meyers7 hours ago

Taking Seat For Third Straight Contest
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

DeMarvion Overshown Aiming For Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Luis Garcia7 hours ago

Shut Down With Elbow Inflammation
Washington Commanders8 hours ago

Commanders Sign T.J. Maguranyanga
Kansas City Chiefs8 hours ago

Mike Edwards Reunites With Chiefs
New Orleans Saints8 hours ago

Saints Could Take A Quarterback Early In The Draft
Joe Milton III11 hours ago

Traded To Cowboys
Anfernee Simons12 hours ago

Could Be Absent Again Thursday
Scoot Henderson12 hours ago

Misses Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Scottie Barnes12 hours ago

Iffy For Thursday
Immanuel Quickley12 hours ago

Takes Thursday Off
Jakob Poeltl12 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Damian Lillard12 hours ago

May Return To Action Sooner Than Expected
Giannis Antetokounmpo13 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Thursday
LeBron James13 hours ago

Probable Thursday
Jared McCann14 hours ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Wednesday
Jackson Blake14 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Artemi Panarin14 hours ago

Tallies Three Points In Overtime Victory
Andrei Svechnikov15 hours ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jake McCabe15 hours ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin15 hours ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Los Angeles Chargers23 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
23 hours ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals23 hours ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell24 hours ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers24 hours ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Jrue Holiday1 day ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets1 day ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Al Horford1 day ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Kristaps Porzingis1 day ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet1 day ago

Out Versus Utah
Evgeni Malkin1 day ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil1 day ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm1 day ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Samuel Girard1 day ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta1 day ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen1 day ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz1 day ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
1 day ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
1 day ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
Cameron Young2 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge2 days ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners2 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay2 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland2 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti2 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens3 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA3 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman3 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones4 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry5 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano5 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For QBs On New Teams: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, more

The NFL quarterback carousel gets to spin every offseason, and plenty of QBs have already found new homes ahead of the 2025 NFL season. For fantasy football, a player's surrounding team is extremely important, so it's worth looking into each of their outlooks with their new squads. There are still a few unsigned QBs, but […]


Shedeur Sanders - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Superflex/Two-QB

The 2025 NFL Draft is still less than 30 days away. Therefore, dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are nearly here. Much will change between now and the NFL Draft. However, it’s time for another dynasty rookie mock draft. This rookie mock draft is a two-round, 12-team, and two-quarterbacks. For a deeper dive into dynasty strategy, […]


Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Offseason Team Needs: Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers

The AFC North, comprised of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers, sent two teams to the playoffs in 2024 and had one on the cusp of a playoff berth. The Ravens have the best roster of the four teams by a long shot. The Steelers have a solid defensive group, and […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]