MLB Hitter Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for BWS (Week 22)

September 5, 2022

Statcast batter leaders in Week 22 of the 2022 MLB season according to BWS. Pierre Camus evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.

Not long ago, Jordan Rosenblum analyzed a metric called BWS (Barrels, Walks, Strikeouts). As he stated, "A focus on just three metrics: barrels, walks, and strikeouts, cuts through the noise to get at a hitter’s true talent level." Of course, he went deeper and created his own weighted version using historical data to compare against current-year performers.

I'll go the simpler route by taking Barrels + Walks and subtracting Strikeouts then dividing by Plate Appearances. What appears will be a list of the top-25 hitters who have consistently hit the ball hard while maintaining strong plate discipline. Most will be All-Stars and fantasy studs but a few names look like they just don't belong. We'll break down the results in the space below.

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BWS Leaders

Notable Players

Christian Walker has carried on his standout season to the point he's set career-bests with 31 HR and 75 RBI with a month left to play. At age 31, Walker is enjoying a renaissance after two consecutive down seasons. The thing is that he's had similar quality of contact metrics in the past and some were even better back in 2019.

His .481 SLG is barely above the .476 mark from the '19 season and his .504 xSLG is actually lower than three seasons ago. The biggest difference is that he's cut down his 25.3% K% to 18.3% over that three-year span. After posting uninspiring numbers in 2021, it looked Walker was past his prime and nothing more than a middling corner infielder. Instead, he's provided solid power numbers all year long thanks to a more selective approach that includes lowering his swing rate by 10 points. Those are changes to believe in.

Josh Bell is the owner of an impressive 6.3% K-BB% for his MLB career and has always been able to draw walks at a high clip. His barrel rate has remained fairly static for the past three years: 8.6% in 2020, 8.8% in 2021, and 7.6% in 2022. That's not much more than league average and it's getting worse because he's frankly been a bust since being acquired by San Diego.

In 125 PA with the Padres, Bell is slashing .181/.306/.276 with two HR and nine RBI. It's rare that a hitter's slugging percentage outpaces his on-base percentage but that's where Bell is at these days. He's more than capable of hitting for power but he's not taken well to his new team. Outside of points leagues that reward for walks, Bell should be benched if possible.

Yandy Diaz is lighting up the Statcast charts in every category... except barrels.

He makes the BWS leaderboard on the strength of his 14.6% walk rate - the third straight year he has been among the best in taking free passes. He's delivering a strong .290 AVG and .396 OBP but he doesn't hit the ball in the air nearly enough to ever be a consistent home run threat.

Will Smith definitely does have a home-run swing and he's used it to go deep 21 times, including each of the last two games. As a power-hitting catcher with outstanding plate discipline in a loaded lineup, there's little reason to think he won't be the top catcher picked in 2023 fantasy drafts as we've seen Salvador Perez fall back to earth.

Alejandro Kirk is making a case as one of the top catchers in fantasy by batting .295 with 13 HR, 52 RBI, and 52 R. He has more walks than strikeouts on the season and he's earned an All-Star nod already at the age of 23. There's some question as to how high his power ceiling is due to his contact-oriented line-drive first approach. He won't ever be Will Smith in that respect but a 20-homer season could be in his future.

No Cap'n, @alejandro_kirk CRUSHES 🚀 pic.twitter.com/2cS356MjEw

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) September 1, 2022

Max Kepler has proven far more valuable in reality than fantasy. He often hits third or fourth in the order because of his ability to draw walks and see a lot of pitches. Otherwise, he's not bringing enough to the table with a .243 AVG and nine HR on the year. Since returning from the injured list on August 6th, he's struggled mightily with a .195 AVG and no homers. His 2019 season continues to stick out as an obvious outlier on an otherwise average resume.

One of these things is not like the other. It's Luis Arraez and his 3.6% Barrel%. He is on this list because of his impeccable plate discipline and absurdly low 7.6% K%. He makes contact like no other but it's rarely hard. To be fair, he does have a career-high eight HR on the season so maybe he'll break out to reach double digits!

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