Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - xBACON Leaderboard

July 21, 2021

Statcast hitter leaderboard for xBACON entering Week 18 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Pierre Camus reviews the expected statistics for key batters of interest.

Who doesn't love xBACON? Rather than the extra crispy version of your favorite breakfast meat, it's actually an expected statistic that measures Batting Average on CONtact, but you already knew that.

The purpose of using xBACON is to get a better sense of whether a player's BABIP is truly "deserved" or not based on the usual factors like exit velocity, launch angle, etc. It also includes home runs whereas BABIP does not. For reference, an xBACON for most hitters will range between .300-.400. An xBACON over .400 is elite, around .350 is good, anything .300 or lower is poor. Needless to say, everyone on the top 15 leaderboard is over that .400 mark. For this week's exercise, we'll examine batters who have accumulated at least 50 plate appearances in 2021.

All Statcast data is current as of July 18, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com

xBACON Leaders

J.D. Davis, New York Mets

.547 xBACON

After 10 long weeks sidelined with a hand injury, Davis is back on the field. Just in time too, as Francisco Lindor is on IL for at least a couple of weeks. Davis isn't guaranteed to start every day, as Jonathan Villar has filled in well at third base, but Davis could see time there and in left field. He seemed OK with the idea in a recent interview just before returning to action.

When I get an opportunity to bang, I’ll bang. - J.D. Davis

They'll need him to bang, seeing as how the Mets are 23rd in team batting average at .230 and 29th in runs scored this season. Davis leads the pack with an outstanding .547 xBACON and a 53.3% HardHit%. It's a small sample because of his extended stay on the IL, but this is a player who posted a 47.9% HardHit% two years ago and an expected slash line all in the top 10 percentile.

If your fantasy team, like the real-life Metropolitans, is in need of an offensive boost, take a flier on Davis. He's still available in 43% of Yahoo! leagues and may have been dropped rather than stashed in competitive leagues.

Tyler O'Neill, St. Louis Cardinals

.422 xBACON

Another week, another reason to buy into O'Neill. For those who haven't caught the last few iterations of this weekly series, O'Neill is slaying every aspect of Statcast other than K-BB%.

Last season was miserable for him at the plate as he slashed .173/.261/.360. This year, he's knocking the cover off of it. The primary difference is that he's finally learned to adapt to breaking pitches – a trend that actually began during his miserable 2020 season.

Since the All-Star break, he's come out strong with four hits including a home run in his first three games. When all is said and done, this could go down as O'Neill's breakout season.

Aristides Aquino, Cincinnati Reds

.404 xBACON

Playing time has been an ongoing issue with Aquino but punishing baseballs has not. His 27.6% Barrel% is the best in the majors among those with at least 25 batted ball events. His 219-ft. average distance is fourth-best. He does this by feasting on fastballs, but continues to struggle against everything else.

Aquino will continue to platoon with Tyler Naquin for the time being, frustrating Reds fans and fantasy managers alike. An injury or extended power binge could buy him regular at-bats, but for now, he is a high-upside streamer vs lefties.

xBACON Duds

Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners

.265 xBACON

If you're wondering if one of the top hitting prospects in baseball has really been that bad in his rookie season or if he might just be unlucky so far, the answer is both. Kelenic has struck out about 30% of the time and his average is an atrocious .115/.190/.198 over his first 105 plate appearances. It's a small consolation that his xBA is much higher because it's still just .178.

His .265 xBACON is one of the worst around, mainly due to a 58.1% contact rate on pitches out of the zone. He's chasing too much and ineffectively. This could be a sign of poor plate discipline or just a case of a rookie pressing to make an impression. Patience is required, which may or may not pay off this season. Proceed cautiously in redraft, try to buy "low" in dynasty if anyone happens to be nervous that he isn't the real deal.

Cavan Biggio, Toronto Blue Jays

.282 xBACON

An xBA of .197 and a 32.7% HardHit% tell of the struggle Biggio has had this season making quality contact. We never rightfully expected a high batting average, but at this point even .250 would be a welcome sight. Instead, he's batting .225 with just six HR and three SB. So much for that 20/20 season.

While a high walk rate is always welcome, Biggio has been a little too patient at the plate. His swing rate is six points lower than the league average and his strikeout rate hasn't improved (26.6%). That means when he does make contact, how he does so matters even more. In all, there aren't enough red flags in his profile to think that he couldn't join the ranks of the fantasy elite at infield one day. He possesses the raw power to reach 25 homers one day along with a decent average based on his in-zone contact rate. A selective approach that welcomes patience but doesn't overly rely on it is the next step in his progression as a pro.

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