X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Sweet Spot % Leaders - Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds (Week 5)

Statcast batter risers and fallers for week 5 of the 2019 MLB season, sorted by Sweet Spot rate. Pierre Camus looks at hitters who could be buys or sells according to advanced sabermetrics.

In this week's version Statcast Risers and Fallers for Hitters, we're going to examine a newer metric called Sweet Spot percentage. It may seem like a simple colloquialism but Statcast now measures how frequently a batter truly hits the sweet spot, at least according to ideal launch angle. Simply put, this stat measures any batted-ball event with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees.

Launch angle in of itself can't tell us what happens with a ball once it's struck. This must be used in conjunction with exit velocity and hard-hit rate in order to paint a picture of how well a hitter is performing. Barrels do just this, but sometimes it is useful to dig deeper into the isolated statistics in order to find potential risers and fallers who are one adjustment away from making gains or regressing to the norm.

As usual, we won't be stating the obvious by regurgitating the names of league leaders and big-time busts. Instead, we will look for unexpected players who might be worth your attention on the waiver wire, trade block, or chopping block. Now, let's get into the hitters who are finding the sweet spot (or not) as we prepare for Week 5 of the MLB season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Surprising Chart Toppers

All stats current as of April 28, 2019 and display leaders among hitters with at least 25 Batted Ball Events (BBE).

Before we delve into the highlighted players, I should note that the top two Sweet Spot leaders at the moment are light-hitting backup infielders Ehire Adrianza (53.8%) and Jordy Mercer (53.1%). I'm not sure what that means but I know there's no way to convince me they will be fantasy-relevant any time soon so we'll ignore them for now.

 

Ben Gamel (OF, MIL)

50.0% SwSp% in 30 BBE

This seems like an irrelevant name to mention as well but those in NL-only and 14+ team leagues can at least pay attention. Gamel has seen a pair of starts in the last week, driving in a run in each. It's mainly been to spell Ryan Braun in left field, who is off to a terrible start with a .196/.245/.391 slash line. On Sunday, he entered the game after Christian Yelich left early on a HBP. If the reigning MVP is forced to miss time, then Gamel will likely take his place in right field. The Brewers lineup would be far less potent without Yelich but playing time could still bring value for Gamel.

His 36.7% hard-hit rate isn't working well in conjunction with his sweet spot rate, nor do his numbers from the past couple of years inspire much confidence. He is still just 26 and could benefit from a move to Miller Park instead of Safeco. He's only worth a look in deep formats but if you're forced to find a replacement for Yelich, maybe don't stray too far.

 

Ji-Man Choi (1B, TB)

47.9% SwSp% in 48 BBE

The Rays have been one of the bigger surprises of the 2019 season thanks to nobody in particular on offense. While Yandy Diaz continues cranking out homers, there isn't an early MVP candidate or star player in the making. Choi is one of a cast of characters that might not find his way off the bench (or on the 25-man roster) for another club but has been a solid contributor in Tampa. The other reason it's surprising to see him on the leaderboard here is the fact he only has one home run on the year. If he's hitting the ball just right nearly half the time, why isn't it bringing better results?

Don't blame his hard-hit rate - he's at 41.7% this year and might actually see positive regression if it lines up with his past two seasons' results of 45.5% and 42.3%. Choi could stand to do better than his 93.5 MPH exit velocity on fly balls and line drives, as that ranks smack dab in the middle of all hitters, along with his barrel rate. His exit velo is above average at least and his expected stats are in the 88th percentile, so it's possible he starts to bear some fruit sooner than later.

 

Rowdy Tellez (1B, TOR)

45.7% SwSp% in 46 BBE

Another lefty under the age of 27, Tellez is part of the youth movement underway in Toronto headlined by the son of a Hall of Famer you might have heard of. Lesser-heralded prospects like Teoscar Hernadez and Tellez are going to be important to the team's future success as well, but what about fantasy owners? Hernandez was a Statcast darling last year who is struggling to repeat his success so far in 2019. Tellez may just take up the mantle though.

Tellez has only strung together three multi-hit games, which is why his average sits at .233. The power is clearly present, though. If you missed his 505-foot moon shot to right field in Fenway Park a couple weeks ago, it's worth watching. He is 45th in Barrel rate at 9.1 Brls/PA and his 47.8% hard-hit rate places him 53rd. The area he stands out most is exit velocity, where his 93.1 MPH average on all BBE is 19th, good for the top sixth percentile. Tellez is capable of scorching the ball and may benefit from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting just behind him, as he did on Saturday, or a couple spots ahead of him if he can get on base regularly to provide RBI opportunities.

 

Alarming Bottom Dwellers

All stats current as of April 28, 2019 and display leaders among hitters with at least 25 Batted Ball Events (BBE).

It goes without saying that many players don't want a high launch angle because they rely on speed rather than power. These players are in a bad place because they aren't in the position to benefit from low launch angle.

 

Scott Schebler (OF, CIN)

20.9% SwSp% in 43 BBE

The Reds' center fielder is hitting .132 after collecting just two hits in his last 32 at-bats and is owned in 2% of fantasy leagues. It should go without saying he's at the bottom of several leaderboards but why should we care? Well, it's not so much about his fortunes but those of prospect-in-waiting Nick Senzel.

Originally an infielder, Senzel was moved from third base to second and now to the outfield because of the roster makeup of these Reds. He's blocked by Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett (when he returns from the IL), so Senzel has been playing CF in the minors. It appears there may soon be an opening for him to take over as an everyday player there with the way Schebler has scuffled. It's only a matter of time, so get your waiver bids ready for Senzel soon.

 

Ryan O'Hearn (1B, KC)

21.8% SwSp% in 55 BBE

While Hunter Dozier is stealing all the thunder in KC these days, O'Hearn may not be far behind if he can just lift the ball more. O'Hearn has the 14th-lowest Sweet Spot rate among those with at least 25 batted ball events, despite the fact his 11-degree launch angle average, while certainly low, isn't terrible. It's unfortunate because he's one of the league leaders in hard-hit rate early on, ranking 21st with a 52.7% mark.

O'Hearn has shown plus power throughout his young career, hitting 23 homers between Triple-A and the majors last year and 22 HR in each of the previous two minor league seasons. He's shown he can rake the ball at the highest level, is walking 14.3% of the time, and isn't striking out a ton. It may be a matter of time before O'Hearn starts hitting the ball in the right spots and turns his miserable .175 average around. He's worth watching for now.

 

Carlos Santana (1B, CLE)

22.1% SwSp% in 68 BBE

Although he's got eight years of experience on O'Hearn, they profile almost identically this season. Santana is also posting a top-20 hard-hit rate and has an exit velocity in the 98th percentile. He's hitting .300 and reaching base via walk at an extremely high 17.1% clip as usual but has just two jacks on the year. Santana owners got used to 20-HR power with a low average and now he's flipping things around. Will this trend continue?

It's unlikely, as his current 56% ground ball rate is a full 15 points higher than last year and much more than he's ever finished. His pull rate is also depressed at 29.4%, far below his usual. You could argue he is changing his game to boost his OBP while sacrificing power but a hitter in his mid-30s isn't likely to have such a dramatic shift in profile. Eventually, Santana should see an uptick in power but the high average may not stay with it -- his career-high for a season is .268. If you are a Santana owner, you can feel good holding on because his overall value won't shift dramatically.

More Statcast & Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF