X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast First-Half Underachievers (Hitters)

As the first half wraps up and we are left pondering who will flip the switch in the second half, it's only rational that we look at the players who have underachieved most.

We've already seen examples of players who have started to turn their luck around (Danny Jansen anyone?), so there is definitely credence in expected stats versus actual performance dictating possible regression. That doesn't guarantee it will happen of course, but it's certainly worth pondering for buy-low or add opportunities in leagues where you need a boost in the standings.

Rather than focusing on one category, I will list a few players in each major area that stands out and shows signs of still being fantasy-relevant.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

xBA Underachievers

All stats current as of July 7, 2019 and highlights players with at least 50 plate appearances this season.

 

Danny Jansen (C, TOR)

-.051 BA-xBA in 232 PA

A week too late perhaps but we have to begin with Jansen, who has been mentioned previously in this column as an underachiever. He didn't appear destined to turn things around and had been one of the biggest draft-day busts at an already thin catcher position. Then a light bulb came on and Jansen caught fire, starting with a three-hit performance against the Yankees on June 26. That game included his third home run of the year.

Then he did it again. And again and again... Jansen hit six HR in a seven-game span, prompting those who had recently dropped him from their rosters to curse prodigiously. Power aside, Jansen finally brought his average above the Mendoza line, finishing the first half at .211. He still sits as one of the biggest underachievers compared to expected stats, so don't be surprised if this hot streak carries over.

 

Kyle Seager (3B, SEA)

-.034 BA-xBA in 159 PA

Why would we expect a high batting average from Seager in the first place? His BA has gone down each of the last three seasons, from a career-best .278 in 2016 down to .203 this year. We could blame the slow start on getting back into shape after missing all of April on the injured list but it's hard to excuse his .105 average in July.

Seager's .235 xBA isn't too promising either but we should pay attention to a 90.8 exit velocity that is a career-high and a 47.1% hard-hit rate that ranks 41st. If a few more balls starting falling in for him, he could be a nice source of RBI if he can stay in the sixth spot of the Mariners lineup.

 

Evan Longoria (3B, SF)

-.033 BA-xBA in 297 PA

When digging for underachievers and buy-low assets, it's wise to start with the bottom-dwelling teams. The Giants have been miserable on offense, sitting at the bottom of the majors with a .231 team average and scoring the fourth-fewest runs. The optimist will point to an infusion of fresh blood such as Austin Slater, Mike Yastrzemski, and Alex Dickerson and say that better days may be ahead. The pessimist will simply skip this section and move onto younger, more exciting players while missing a potential opportunity.

Expected stats say Longoria should be batting .270 and slugging .490 on the year. His 9.1% walk rate is his best since 2013. Longo still has something left in the tank, proven by the fact his expected stats are all in the 67th percentile or higher. He won't be a league-winner but at an 18% ownership rate, he's worth an add as a power bat who won't go through prolonged slumps.

 

xSLG Underachievers

All stats current as of July 7, 2019 and highlights players with at least 50 plate appearances this season.

 

Nathaniel Lowe (1B, TB)

-.151 SLG-xSLG in 53 PA

Nate Lowe barely makes the 50 PA threshold for our purposes but is definitely worth mentioning. He still has a chance to be worth all that FAAB many owners paid upon his initial call-up a month ago. The rookie was sent down for a spell but came back up on Independence Day and has already made an impact, going yard twice in four games.

His late-blooming power is still very much in play for fantasy owners who need a boost. Lowe will be given every chance to wrestle away the regular spot as a lefty masher away from Ji-Man Choi. His lack of fortune in early at-bats could start to sway the other direction, making him a prospect to add now before everyone remembers what they were so excited for in the first place.

 

Justin Smoak (1B, TOR)

-.103 SLG-xSLG in 295 PA

The Smoak Monster has made more appearances in this column that any other player over the course of 2019. He just doesn't get enough credit, largely because he should be doing so much better. With 14 homers already and an expected slugging of .524, he should be a top-40 power option regardless of position. Also, forget power for a second - has anyone else noticed how he cut his K-BB% down to 3.1% this year???

Smoak is perennially uninspiring, which explains his 34% ownership rate across fantasy leagues. I can't promise any monstrous months ahead but as I've said before, don't be shocked if he ends up nearly matching his career-year numbers from two years ago.

 

Justin Turner (3B, LAD)

-.072 SLG-xSLG in 329 PA

By all accounts, Turner is having a fine season. He is now slashing .294/.375/.446 with 10 HR, 34 RBI, 45 R. He could do even better in the second half though. His .446 SLG is the lowest since he moved to L.A. five years ago and Statcast says he should be 72 points higher. In fact, his xSLG is in the 86th percentile and his hard-hit rate is in the 82nd percentile despite a slow start to the year.

Turner isn't the type of player to crack 30 homers (27 is his career-best) but he is trending upward in the right ways and could be saving the best for late in the season.

 

xwOBA Underachievers

All stats current as of July 7, 2019 and highlights players with at least 50 plate appearances this season.

 

A.J. Pollock (OF, LAD)

-.052 wOBA-xwOBA in 115 PA

"Underachiever" is an appropriate label for Pollock, especially in the fantasy realm. With an ADP of 118 ahead of the 2019 season, his draft price was at least more palatable before his inevitable injury. As a Pollock owner, if it makes you feel better, he was drafted right around the likes of Rougned Odor, Jurickson Profar, Aaron Hicks and Mike Foltynewicz. There are plenty of busts all around.

Pollock currently owns a career-low .223 average, paltry 7.8% walk rate and hasn't played since April because of an infection in his elbow. Now, the small bits of good news - he is on a rehab assignment as of July 4th and could return shortly after the All-Star break. His 90.5 exit velocity and 41.5% hard-hit rate are personal highs for him in the Statcast era. All his expected stats indicate positive regression is coming. This could make him a nice buy-low candidate while his price is depressed. Just make sure you have an extra IL spot handy, just in case.

 

Jesus Aguilar (1B, MIL)

-.040 wOBA-xwOBA in 219 PA

Aguilar is trying his best to get his name off this list, bopping two homers right before the break to reach eight on the year. *sarcastic cheer

Everyone and their mother will tell you they expected negative regression after his breakout 2018 season but we didn't know it would be this bad. Is he simply having bad luck and unable to get into a groove because his playing time has become inconsistent?

In short, no. His xBA is in the 25th percentile and his middling .335 xwOBA is in the 52nd percentile. Despite improving his walk rate to an impressive 13.2%, his .327 OBP is just not good because base hits have been few and far between. So he's getting what he deserves. The main thing that jumps out in his profile is the fact that he's faring far worse against fastballs this year (.235 BA), hitting almost 100 points worse than last year (.332 BA). It seems like a simple fix but we'll have to see it before believing in a turnaround.

 

Jose Ramirez (2B/3B, CLE)

-.040 wOBA-xwOBA in 359 PA

You didn't think J-Ram would avoid this list, did you? As I've said time and time again in this column, if not for the steals then Ramirez would be the biggest bust of the season. With a price tag of the third overall pick in most drafts, he's delivered a .218/.308/.344 slash line with seven HR, 35 RBI. By contrast, teammate Jason Kipnis is batting .240 with seven HR, 34 RBI.

While Ramirez's walk rate has dropped four points from last season's 15.2%, his batting average has dropped for two reasons: he's getting shifted more and he is focusing more on breaking balls. Some critics pointed out his .179 average versus breaking balls last year. Rather than letting that become an Achilles heel, he's upped it to .254 this season. In the process, his average has dropped 90 points (.211) versus fastballs. That can be corrected but he'll have to figure out how to beat the shift more frequently in order to get near his previous year levels of production.

Expect some improvement throughout the second half and a potential power binge at some point if he starts selling out for power but not to the point where he'll bring back the same return on investment you'd like.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Noah Fant1 hour ago

Questionable For Week 12, Update Coming On Saturday
Brock Purdy3 hours ago

Week 13 Status Uncertain
Kyle Finnegan4 hours ago

Nationals Non-Tender Kyle Finnegan On Friday
Dylan Carlson4 hours ago

Rays Non-Tender Dylan Carlson
Brendan Rodgers4 hours ago

Rockies Non-Tender Brendan Rodgers, Cal Quantrill
Mike Yastrzemski4 hours ago

Avoids Arbitration With Giants
Jordan Romano4 hours ago

Blue Jays Non-Tender Closer Jordan Romano
Dustin May5 hours ago

Dodgers Sign Dustin May To One-Year Deal To Avoid Arbitration
Walker Kessler5 hours ago

Might Return To Action Saturday
Kyle Filipowski5 hours ago

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jordan Clarkson5 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Miles McBride5 hours ago

Questionable To Face Jazz
Joel Embiid5 hours ago

To Remain Out On Sunday
Nikola Jokic5 hours ago

Returns To Action Friday
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope6 hours ago

No Longer On Injury Report
Wendell Carter Jr.6 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Brady Singer6 hours ago

Shipped To Cincinnati
Jonathan India6 hours ago

Traded To Kansas City
Tre Mann6 hours ago

Listed As Out For Saturday
Torrey Craig6 hours ago

Available Versus Hawks
Nick Richards6 hours ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Jarace Walker6 hours ago

Ready To Face Bucks
Ben Sheppard6 hours ago

Misses A Third Consecutive Game
Anfernee Simons6 hours ago

Returns To Action Friday
Ja Morant6 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Saturday
Jerami Grant6 hours ago

Ready For Action Friday
Marcus Smart6 hours ago

Questionable For Saturday
Deandre Ayton7 hours ago

Remains Out On Friday
Yves Missi7 hours ago

Will Not Play On Friday
Stephen Curry7 hours ago

Available Versus Pelicans
Scoot Henderson7 hours ago

Absent On Friday
Rashod Bateman8 hours ago

Added To Week 12 Injury Report
Vince Dunn8 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Kraken Next Week
TOR8 hours ago

Alexander Nylander Joins Maple Leafs On One-Year Deal
George Kittle8 hours ago

Cleared For Week 12
Jason Dickinson8 hours ago

Expected To Play On Saturday
Cam York8 hours ago

Expected To Return Saturday
San Francisco 49ers8 hours ago

Nick Bosa Won't Play Against Packers
Mason McTavish8 hours ago

Remains Out On Friday
Brock Purdy8 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Tage Thompson8 hours ago

Continues To Sit On Friday
Kevin Hayes9 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Kris Letang9 hours ago

Might Return On Friday
Ladd McConkey9 hours ago

Returns To Practice On Friday
CeeDee Lamb9 hours ago

Cleared To Play In Week 12
Sam LaPorta9 hours ago

Off The Injury Report, Cleared For Week 12
Jake Ferguson9 hours ago

Ruled Out With Concussion
DeVonta Smith10 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Brock Purdy10 hours ago

Not Seen At Friday's Practice
T.J. Hockenson10 hours ago

Expects To Be More Involved In Week 12
Alexander Mattison10 hours ago

Zamir White Doubtful To Face Broncos
Nico Collins10 hours ago

Set For Increased Workload Against Titans
Mike Evans10 hours ago

Officially Listed As Questionable
Malik Nabers11 hours ago

Questionable For Week 12, Intends To Play
Sam Darnold11 hours ago

Cleared For Sunday
D'Andre Swift11 hours ago

Gets Questionable Tag For Week 12
Keenan Allen11 hours ago

Lands On Injury Report, Questionable For Week 12
Isiah Pacheco12 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Shohei Ohtani13 hours ago

In Early Stages Of Recovery From Shoulder Surgery
Tabatha Ricci13 hours ago

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Yan Xiaonan13 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Muslim Salikhov14 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Chris Sale14 hours ago

To Have Normal Offseason
Garrett Crochet14 hours ago

Drawing Plenty Of Interest
Song Kenan14 hours ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Zhang Mingyang14 hours ago

Set For His Second UFC Fight
Ozzy Diaz14 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Macau
MacKenzie Weegar17 hours ago

Notches Three Assists Against Rangers
Macklin Celebrini17 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Thursday's Loss
Nikita Kucherov17 hours ago

Comes Up With Three Assists Versus Blue Jackets
Sean Monahan17 hours ago

Finishes Thursday's Win With Four Points
Zach Werenski17 hours ago

Enjoys Career Night With Five Points Against Lightning
Jack Hughes18 hours ago

Posts Three Assists Versus Hurricanes
Joonas Korpisalo18 hours ago

Records 21-Save Shutout Versus Utah
Carlos Ulberg1 day ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir1 day ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes1 day ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
MMA1 day ago

Cong Wang Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo1 day ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Macau
Petr Yan1 day ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Shohei Ohtani1 day ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge1 day ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Alex Ovechkin1 day ago

To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Fractured Fibula
Zach Hyman1 day ago

Expected To Miss 4-7 Days
Kent Johnson1 day ago

Back For Blue Jackets Thursday
Yaroslav Askarov1 day ago

Makes Sharks Debut Thursday
Mikael Granlund1 day ago

Good To Go Thursday
Alexandar Georgiev1 day ago

Returns To Action Versus Capitals
Cody Bellinger1 day ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
1 day ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Chris Sale2 days ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal2 days ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat2 days ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Ludvig Aberg2 days ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy2 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole2 days ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
3 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers3 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
3 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri3 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
Charles Oliveira5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler5 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva5 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy5 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
James Llontop6 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig6 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal6 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic6 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Mike Evans - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For Week 12 (Friday Updates): Mike Evans, Isiah Pacheco, Tyreek Hill, George Kittle, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Hurts, Calvin Ridley, more

It's now Friday of Week 12, meaning the final injury reports for all teams have been released. We now have the official designations of each player dealing with injuries ahead of their Week 12 contests, meaning we have the best information we'll have until unofficial speculative reports and final active/inactive lists are released. There are […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Dynasty Watch: Top College Fantasy Football Players Week 12 (2024)

Welcome back to another season of Fantasy Football Dynasty Watch, where I highlight the best and brightest performances from the college football week. The Big 12(16) took center stage this week and Tennessee fell to the ranks of most SEC contenders with two losses. Here are the players who showed out that you may have […]


Video: Week 12 Booms, Sleepers, and Streamers - 2024 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Analysis

And here...we...go... The YouTube team is dropping fresh fire content for the weekend ahead with our top Week 12 booms, sleepers, and streamers! NFL Network and RotoBaller contributor LaQuan Jones gives in-depth fantasy football advice, breaking down some of his high-upside, sleeper, and value plays as we head into Week 12 of the new fantasy […]


RotoBaller NFL Betting Picks Stock

2024 NFL Week 12 Betting Picks (Premium Content)

All other Premium Tools and Content can be accessed on the premium dashboard. To see ALL of Jamie's bets (and others from RotoBaller experts) then head over to the RotoBaller Discord. You'll find every bet and prop in the #NFL-BETTING-PROPS channel there!   Background My name is Jamie Calandro (@jac3600 on X) and I have […]


DeVon Achane - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Injury News

Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 12 Matchups Analysis

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another start'em and sit'em piece as we look ahead to Week 12! There will be a whopping six teams on bye this week (Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New York Jets), so that means fantasy managers might need to look deeper on their benches. This Week 12 matchups […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 12 (2024)

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 12 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive […]


Houston Texans Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Derek Stingley Fantasy Football IDP

D/ST Strength of Schedule: Best Fantasy Football Defense Streamers and Matchups (Weeks 12-17)

Ahh, the good old Defense/Special Teams (DST) position in fantasy football. It is a controversial inclusion in fantasy lineups for some fantasy players, but strategizing around DSTs is one of my favorite aspects of the in-season fantasy football experience. In the article below, I will present the strength of schedule (SOS) for the fantasy Defense/Special […]


NFL DFS: FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 12 - Top Lineup Plays Include Jayden Daniels, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff, Puka Nacua

It’s already Week 12, although the end of the 2024-25 campaign can’t come soon enough for teams like the Jaguars, Raiders, Giants, and Panthers, to name a few. On the other hand, clubs like the Bills, Chiefs, and Lions are only a few weeks away from officially punching their tickets to the postseason.   In […]


Braelon Allen - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Playoff Schedules for Waiver Wire Streamers, Stashes (Weeks 15-17)

Planning too far in advance to align your fantasy football players for an optimal playoff performance comes with many pitfalls. However, positioning yourself for good fortune in Weeks 15 through 17 should be a key piece of your strategy if you're in line to make the bracket. Fantasy players still have time to trade for […]


Bo Nix - Fantasy Football Rankings, QB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

The King's Week 12 Lineup Rankings and Analysis (Premium Content)

RotoBaller senior writer Scott "The King" Engel shares his Week 12 fantasy football lineup rankings for PPR, half PPR, and standard scoring league participants. He also provides an analysis of the rankings at every skill position. Regular starting options are included to highlight that some of your must-start players have a good chance of supplying […]


Courtland Sutton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 12 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks - Main Slate (2024): Anthony Richardson, Brian Robinson Jr., Courtland Sutton, and more

How's it going, RotoBallers? Welcome back to our DraftKings Main Slate article. Known around the fantasy football world as "Bye-Mageddon," Week 12 certainly offers up some unique challenges from a DFS perspective. Don't worry, we'll work through those difficulties to find the best plays we can on this slate. These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based […]


Brian Robinson Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings Running Backs, Waiver Wire Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Bold Predictions for Fantasy Football Week 12: Tua Tagovailoa, Rhamondre Stevenson, Brian Robinson Jr., Ladd McConkey, Will Dissly

Week 12 is here, and I’m back with another edition of fantasy football bold predictions. This week’s list of bold predictions will include Tua Tagovailoa, Rhamondre Stevenson, Brian Robinson Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Will Dissly. Every week, I will provide some fun and bold fantasy football predictions. While these bold predictions aren’t the most likely […]


Ladd McConkey - Fantasy Football Rankings, Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 12 Lineups Include Tua Tagovailoa, J.K. Dobbins, Ladd McConkey

Week 11 was pretty kind to us in this space. We correctly labeled Justin Herbert as a boom pick. He threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 65 yards on the ground. It culminated with a QB8 finish. We also nailed Kirk Cousins and Tony Pollard as busts. Cousins and the Falcons […]