Week 7 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

October 21, 2018

Measuring fantasy football performance using consistency data to help make start/sit lineup decisions. Ben Rolfe analyzes the first six weeks of NFL player data.

Through six weeks we are now starting to see things settle down somewhat. We no longer have the massive movements in the tables that we have seen previously. This goes for all positions and the numbers are starting to match results. There will be names that surprise but when you go and look at the fantasy points the numbers are there. More so than at wide receiver and running back there are still some interesting names high in the rankings at quarterback and tight end. However, these are generally more variable positions. That is why both positions are often streamed on a weekly basis while running backs and wide receivers are more consistently used. However, we can still see that at every position the consistency rankings are matching the eye test in a big way.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

Quarterbacks

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. Beathard remains the strangest name near the top but the situation has led to him putting up good numbers. He has two touchdowns in each of the three games he has started and has decent yardage totals in each of them. With the strength of that offensive line and the weakness of his defense, he may actually remain near the top of this list for a while. It may not make you good but Beathard could be a viable fantasy starter going forward.

Smith at number one will surprise people but he is solid. He may not be the guy you want in shallow leagues but you can do a lot worse than him in deeper formats. Beyond those two there is not much surprise in the top-20 right now.

So looking outside the top-20 we have a number of names of interest. Bortles is an issue for anyone in fantasy. He can put up great numbers from time-to-time but he is also making a ton of mistakes this year. Bortles has been majorly inconsistent this season and the Texans defense is good enough I have worries about him this week. The Bears have been really good this season at home and against a leaky New England defense, I can see a good case for starting Trubisky this week. Finally, we have Mayfield who get to travel to one of the worst defenses in the league in Tampa Bay. Mayfield is another guy that I would consider starting if I need upside this week.

Running Backs

There are no real surprises in the top-15 here. Focusing on the guys just below the most interesting is Tevin Coleman. With Freeman on the injured reserve Coleman will be the lead back for the Falcons. He should have every opportunity for good weeks going forward. In addition, the #27 ranked Ito Smith should become a starter in many leagues as the backup to Coleman. Smith has three touchdowns in three weeks and appears to be getting enough carries near the goal line to have value.

The #20 ranked Allen is a weird enigma. Last week he had just one carry and three targets as he lost carries to Gus Edwards which is a major concern. At this point, it is hard to start Allen in any leagues. At #26 we have Miller who is struggling this season. Miller sits low in these rankings and faces an incredibly tough matchup this week.

I always use this spot to point out struggling backs in time shares. Howard's fumble last week in Miami may have cost him even more time to Cohen. At this stage, Howard is becoming close to unstartable in all leagues. Powell and Crowell continue to take carries away from each other. The only way to jump out is through finding the end zone and Powell has yet to do that this season. Crowell failed to hit the end zone as well last week but the good news is that he has a pattern of scoring touchdowns in odd weeks and that is exactly what Week 7 is.

Wide Receivers

As with running back we have no surprises in the top-15 at wide receiver. We can ignore DeAndre Carter as he has played just two games and from next week I will be filtering out players based on on games played now we are nearly half way through the season.

Hill had a monster week last week but he is extremely hit or miss depending on whether he finds the end zone or not. The name below him is interesting to me this week. Snead is facing his old team in the Saints, who also happen to have had struggles against wide receivers this season. All of the Ravens receivers are startable for me this week.

Stefon Diggs at #32 stands out to me. The weird thing about his numbers is that he has been extremely good on the road but really bad at home. This week, he is on the road. At #37 Jones appears to be the big loser in the Lions receiving corps. He has become the third receiver in that group behind Golladay and Tate.

In the #40s, we have Gabriel, Fuller, Wilson, Grant, and Ridley who can all have huge weeks. However, all of them are also prone to extremely low weeks. They are guys you have to just blindly trust, but whether you start them depends on how consistent you feel the rest of your lineup is or what your situation is. If you are playing someone who had a big Thursday night then you might want to risk a couple of these guys. These are also interesting DFS names in GPP.

Tight Ends

Among the top-15 we have two names that simply need ignoring in Conklin and Valles. The rest of the top-20 is fairly self-explanatory. I wanted to focus on Geoff Swaim who has become a big part of the Cowboys offense. He was not part of the plan last week but he may be back in it this week.

Two further names of interest are Engram and Uzomah. Engram should be back this week on Monday night. I am not sure I am risking him given that the Giants do not play until Monday night and alternatives might be short if he is suddenly inactive. Uzomah is interesting because he is becoming a bigger part of this offense and this week he gets the Chiefs who have struggled against the tight end. This game should be a shoot out and Uzomah could be a really sneaky good fantasy option this week.

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