X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pitch Count Analysis for Fantasy Baseball - Analyzing Last Year's Starting Pitchers

Zack Wheeler - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury nNews

A few things that have been rising rapidly in the last 20 years of Major League Baseball: revenues, player salaries, and the use of data analytics. These three things working in conjunction have led most Major League teams to be very careful with their starting pitchers, especially their best ones.

We have seen both total innings and pitches-per-start on the downtrend for quite some time now. Here are the numbers of pitchers reaching at least 200 innings over the last five seasons (from 2016-2021, not counting 2020): 15, 15, 13, 15, 4. Going back to 2013, there were 36 pitchers who accomplished this, and the number really fell quickly after that season. There are two ways to limit a pitcher's workload. One is to limit the number of starts, and the other is to limit their pitches per start. Or you could do both of these at the same time. We've seen some instances of very cautionary (or outright phantom) IL stints and some instances of six-man rotations which have slowed down the number of times the average pitcher takes the hill, but the change has been more driven by just limiting the number of pitches thrown in each start.

This pushes the sharp fantasy player to re-calibrate their expectations for starting pitcher volume. While it is possible that being one more year removed from 2020 might bring innings counts up slightly, it is best to just view 190 innings as the new 200 innings, and then adjust accordingly as you move down in innings as well (meaning 175 innings can essentially be considered a "full season" since a minority of starting pitchers will exceed that). Personally, I don't recommend spending too much of your time trying to predict innings totals. You are assuming health when you do that, and that is a very daunting assumption when you are talking about starting pitching. But that does not mean to draft all pitchers as if they have the same expected workload, so there is some work to be done here.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

The Data

I prepared a table that shows the following for each pitcher that made at least 10 starts last year:

  • Number of starts (GS)
  • Average pitches thrown per start (AVG)
  • The maximum number of pitches they threw in a start (MAX)
  • Number of times they threw at least 90 pitches (>=90)
  • Number of times they threw at least 95 pitches (>=95)
  • Etc...

Here it is:


You can search for any pitcher you like in the search box there and sort by whichever column you wish.

 

The Good

Familiar names near the top. Pitches-per-start does turn out to be one of the more predictable things in baseball. We see that here with a lot of the names you would have guessed heading into the season at the top of the list. Trevor Bauer, Gerrit Cole, and Shane Bieber would have been in everybody's top-five, I think, and indeed their managers let them throw a bunch of pitches every time they were out there.

Zack WheelerHe was your volume champ in 2021. Not only did he average the second-highest pitches per start, but he also threw the most innings (213.1) and total pitches (3,205). You can only accomplish this if you are very good while on the mound, which Wheeler certainly was.

Lance McCullers Jr.I don't think many people would have predicted McCullers to do what he did volume-wise last year. He exceeded 105 pitches on 11 different occasions to lead the league. That was surprising given his history (he had never started more than 22 games prior) and the long-term plans the team had for him (signed him to a five-year contract last season). The bad news is that his walk issues (11% BB%) often prevented him from getting deep into games even with the long leash. Nonetheless, it's good news for his 2022 fantasy value.

Frankie MontasThis was another guy that had not thrown a full season in the majors before (previous max of just 16 starts), but he was healthy all year and the Athletics were more than confident in him. He went over the century-mark 20 times, tying for sixth-best in the league there. After he ironed out some early season issues, he was one of the best pitchers in the league in the second half and sets up quite nicely for 2022.

Carlos RodonFew pitchers have had a tougher time staying on the field over their careers than Rodon, but he finally put it together last season. He had a phenomenal season with the White Sox, who let him average 92 pitches-per-start and go over 100 pitches on 13 occasions.

Josiah GrayHe does not show up near the top of the chart here, but he probably comes in higher than we would have suspected. After making a couple of appearances with the Dodgers, he was traded to the Nationals. Washington used him like a typical starter, for the most part. He averaged 87 pitches per start for the year and the Nats even let him run it the whole way up to 100 twice despite being out of contention pretty early on. I would expect Gray to be given the chance to reach 160 innings or so if he's healthy and pitching well.

 

The Bad

At the bottom of the list, you see mostly guys that spent time in the bullpen as well, which is skewing the data here. I'll help you sort it out here by highlighting some names that have cause for some concern.

Shane McClanahanThis was to be expected with the way the Rays approach things with their young pitchers. The lefty averaged just 78 pitches per start and threw at least 90 pitches just four times. They let him over 100 just once. While he was really sparkling when on the mound, if they take anything close to the same approach next, it is going to be really tough to come by a competitive innings total with this guy (and forget about quality starts if you are in that kind of league).

Dane DunningHe was one of the few bright spots on the pitching front for Texas, but really was hard to use in fantasy given his workload. He did not go over 90 pitches even once, and averaged just 71 pitches per outing. You would have to expect the Rangers to loosen the restrictions a bit in 2022, but the ceiling would seem to remain quite low.

Elieser HernandezThe Marlins were also a team we expected to treat their young starters with kid gloves. It also certainly did not help that Hernandez did not stay healthy (once again). He made 11 starts and average just 74 pitches in those starts, really holding him back for fantasy purposes.

Check out the rest of the table for more! And if you are looking to bookmark this for later reference, you can save off this link that goes directly to the interactive table.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Colby Thomas13 mins ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Colby Thomas
Brock Stewart22 mins ago

Exits With Knee Injury
Evan Sisk32 mins ago

Optioned to Triple-A
Will Benson39 mins ago

Sent To Triple-A
Bryan Shaw50 mins ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Mookie Betts58 mins ago

Could Miss Tokyo Series
Quinton Byfield1 hour ago

Scores In Sixth-Straight Contest
Chase Elliott1 hour ago

May Be A Sneaky DFS Option For Las Vegas Lineups
Artemi Panarin1 hour ago

Extends Point Streak To Eight Games
Pyotr Kochetkov1 hour ago

Shuts The Door On Saturday
William Byron1 hour ago

Expect William Byron To Compete For The Win At Las Vegas
Tyler Reddick2 hours ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Options For Las Vegas
Anthony Cirelli2 hours ago

Strikes Twice On Saturday
Denny Hamlin2 hours ago

Could Denny Hamlin Be A Quality Driver For DFS At Las Vegas?
Alex Ovechkin2 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Connor Dewar2 hours ago

Scores Twice On Saturday
NASCAR2 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Could Be A Solid DFS Option For Las Vegas
Brad Keselowski2 hours ago

Qualifies Deep In The Field For Las Vegas
Erik Jones2 hours ago

Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering At Las Vegas This Week?
Daniel Suarez2 hours ago

Should Fantasy Players Roster Daniel Suarez At Las Vegas?
Carson Hocevar2 hours ago

Showcases Speed And Can Be Worth Rostering At Las Vegas
Ryan Preece3 hours ago

Is Ryan Preece A DFS Fade For Las Vegas Lineups?
Joey Logano3 hours ago

Likely to Lead at Las Vegas, but Will He Lead Enough for DFS Consideration?
Michael McDowell3 hours ago

Wins Spire Motorsports's First Pole at Las Vegas
Austin Cindric4 hours ago

Qualified Third, but Almost Guaranteed to Lose Spots
Chase Briscoe4 hours ago

Las Vegas Performance Hard to Predict
Ty Gibbs4 hours ago

a Solid DFS Option in Theory, but Disastrous Recent Performance Likely Overrides That
Shane Van Gisbergen4 hours ago

Too Inexperienced at Las Vegas for DFS Consideration Despite Trackhouse Speed
Noah Gragson4 hours ago

Finished Well at Las Vegas Last Year, but Ran Worse
Austin Dillon4 hours ago

Decent at Las Vegas, but Not Worthy of DFS Play
Josh Berry4 hours ago

Poor Intermediate Record Likely to Override Strong Qualifying Result
Justin Haley4 hours ago

Spire Speed Suggests Justin Haley Is a Strong DFS Option
Cole Custer4 hours ago

Could be Valuable If Haas Has Intermediate Speed
Mitch Garver10 hours ago

Goes Hitless In Return To Cactus League Action
Austin Riley10 hours ago

Doubles In Return To Lineup On Saturday
Jordan Mason10 hours ago

Vikings Acquire Jordan Mason From 49ers, Sign Him To Two-Year Deal
RJ Barrett11 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Sunday
Immanuel Quickley12 hours ago

Won't Play On Sunday
Jerami Grant12 hours ago

Unlikely To Play On Sunday
Marcus Smart12 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Anfernee Simons12 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Sunday
Christian Braun12 hours ago

Available On Saturday
Aaron Gordon12 hours ago

Unavailable On Saturday
Jamal Murray12 hours ago

Will Play On Saturday Night
Nikola Jokić12 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Cleared To Suit Up Versus The Wizards
Colby Thomas13 hours ago

Sustains Injury On Saturday
Dee Eskridge13 hours ago

Sticking With Dolphins
Josh Giddey13 hours ago

Officially Out On Saturday Night
Ja Morant13 hours ago

Ruled Out On Saturday Night
JuJu Smith-Schuster13 hours ago

Returning To Chiefs
Josh Rojas13 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Tennessee Titans13 hours ago

Chidobe Awuzie Released By Titans
Thairo Estrada13 hours ago

Removed From Saturday's Contest
Damian Lillard14 hours ago

Available Versus Indiana
Parris Campbell14 hours ago

Headed To Dallas
Nick Kurtz14 hours ago

Exits After Hit-By-Pitch
Giannis Antetokounmpo14 hours ago

Good To Go On Saturday
Jamal Murray14 hours ago

Added To Saturday's Injury Report
Jiri Kulich14 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Tobias Myers14 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Brice Turang14 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Fatigue
Tyler Myers14 hours ago

Set To Return Against Blackhawks
Nikita Kucherov14 hours ago

Good To Go Against Bruins
Yegor Chinakhov14 hours ago

Rejoins Blue Jackets Lineup Saturday
Cole Anthony14 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Joel Armia14 hours ago

Expected To Return On Saturday
Brady Tkachuk14 hours ago

Available Saturday
Donovan Mitchell14 hours ago

Questionable Against Orlando
Adam Fox15 hours ago

Ready To Rejoin Rangers Lineup
Andre Drummond15 hours ago

Out Against Dallas
Ja Morant15 hours ago

Questionable On Saturday Night
P.J. Washington15 hours ago

Returning On Sunday
Philadelphia Eagles18 hours ago

Patrick Johnson Rejoins Philadelphia
Dante Exum18 hours ago

Diagnosed With A Fractured Left Hand
Los Angeles Rams18 hours ago

Larrell Murchison Back With The Rams
Amed Rosario18 hours ago

Returning On Saturday
Cam Thomas18 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of The Season
Jose Trevino18 hours ago

Going For CT Scan
Kirk Cousins18 hours ago

Set To Receive Roster Bonus
Bryce Eldridge18 hours ago

Will Not Play On Saturday
Aaron Rodgers18 hours ago

Wants To Play In Minnesota
Blake Perkins18 hours ago

Cleared For Light Baseball Activities
Doug Nikhazy19 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Jung Hoo Lee19 hours ago

Scratched On Saturday With Back Tightness
Cody Bradford19 hours ago

Won't Throw For At Least Four Weeks
Washington Commanders20 hours ago

Clelin Ferrell Returning To Washington
New York Jets20 hours ago

Kris Boyd Signs With The Jets
Los Angeles Chargers20 hours ago

Mekhi Becton Inks Deal With Chargers
Tyler Johnson20 hours ago

Links Up With Jets
Kyle Juszczyk21 hours ago

Returns To 49ers
Eeli Tolvanen1 day ago

Scores Twice In Victory
WPG1 day ago

Kyle Connor Strikes Twice On Friday
Jack Roslovic1 day ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Friday's Victory
Leon Draisaitl1 day ago

Leads Edmonton To Victory
Liam O'Brien1 day ago

Exits With Undisclosed Injury
Josh Manson1 day ago

Exits On Friday
Atlanta Falcons1 day ago

Falcons Agree To Terms With Morgan Fox
Indianapolis Colts1 day ago

Colts Sign Corey Ballentine To One-Year Deal On Friday
Pittsburgh Steelers1 day ago

Brandin Echols Signs Two-Year Deal With Steelers
Kenny Yeboah1 day ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Lions
Avery Williams1 day ago

Signs With Eagles
Kene Nwangwu1 day ago

Jets Re-Sign Kene Nwangwu To One-Year Deal
Simi Fehoko2 days ago

Signing With Cardinals
Karel Vejmelka2 days ago

Makes Ninth Consecutive Start Friday
Dustin Wolf2 days ago

Set To Face Avalanche Friday
Roman Dolidze2 days ago

Set For A Rematch
Marvin Vettori2 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Chidi Njokuani2 days ago

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos2 days ago

Looks For His 12th UFC Win
Kurt Holobaugh2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez2 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Gibson2 days ago

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Da'Mon Blackshear2 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 104
Brendson Ribeiro2 days ago

Searching For Second UFC Win On Saturday
Diyar Nurgozhay2 days ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
MMA2 days ago

Seung Woo Choi In Dire Need Of Victory
Kevin Vallejos2 days ago

Makes Debut At UFC Vegas 104
Jacob Bridgeman4 days ago

Use Caution For Jacob Bridgeman At TPC Sawgrass
Nicolai Hojgaard4 days ago

Looks To Stay Consistent Heading Into PLAYERS Championship
Karl Vilips4 days ago

Makes PLAYERS Championship Debut After First PGA Tour Win
Taylor Pendrith4 days ago

A Sneaky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Sahith Theegala4 days ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick4 days ago

A Shaky Play Heading Into PLAYERS
Scottie Scheffler4 days ago

Eyeing Three-Peat At TPC Sawgrass
Aldrich Potgieter4 days ago

A Risky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Si Woo Kim4 days ago

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At The PLAYERS
Denny McCarthy4 days ago

Looks To Continue Solid Play At TPC Sawgrass
Collin Morikawa4 days ago

Poised For Another Strong Performance At TPC Sawgrass
Robert MacIntyre4 days ago

A Risky Play With Upside At The PLAYERS Championship
Jordan Spieth4 days ago

Looking To Change Fortunes At TPC Sawgrass
Cameron Young4 days ago

Avoid Cameron Young At The PLAYERS Championship
Michael Kim4 days ago

Continues Incredible Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Justin Thomas4 days ago

Looking For More Magic At TPC Sawgrass
Xander Schauffele4 days ago

Continues Competitive Return At The Players Championship
Rory McIlroy4 days ago

Looks To Reverse Recent History At TPC Sawgrass
PGA4 days ago

Victor Hovland Looking To Find Form At The PLAYERS Championship
Brian Harman5 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At The PLAYERS Championship
Min Woo Lee5 days ago

A Hard Name To Trust At The Players Championship
Alex Pereira6 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 313
Magomed Ankalaev6 days ago

Becomes The New UFC Light-Heavyweight Champion
Justin Gaethje6 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Rafael Fiziev6 days ago

Loses Third Fight In A Row
Ignacio Bahamondes6 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 313
Jalin Turner6 days ago

Retires After UFC 313 Loss
Iasmin Lucindo6 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 313
Amanda Lemos6 days ago

Dominates At UFC 313
King Green6 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC 313
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF