X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Starting Pitcher Breakouts Due For Negative Regression

Michael Simione identifies three starting pitchers (SP) who could see negative regression in the 2020 MLB season. These players could be fantasy baseball busts or avoids in drafts.

As a fantasy baseball manager, there is nothing better than catching a player in their breakout season. Not a lot of people talk about the downside to owning a breakout player, though.

We are all humans and a lot of us get attached to these players. That could certainly cloud your judgment because as we all know a breakout doesn’t necessarily mean the player can repeat the following year.

Below are three starting pitchers who had breakout seasons in 2019 and why we need to be suspicious. 

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Dakota Hudson, St. Louis Cardinals

Dakota Hudson enjoyed a really great 2019 season as he put up 16 wins in 174.2 innings and a 3.35 ERA. This was Dakota Hudson’s first full season in the MLB and he certainly impressed as well as provided a lot of value since he mainly went undrafted. 

Hudson was successful by creating a ton of weak contact. Among starters, he had the highest GB% at a 56.9 rate. He had a .354 xwOBAcon while the league average was .354, he had a 6.8 Barrel% while league average was 7.4%, and he had a 63.9 Weak% while league average was 62.1%. All great, right? So why is he in a regression article?

There are some major flaws within Dakota Hudson’s game. His first issue is the lack of control, Hudson posted a 4.43 BB/9 and 11.4 BB%. League average BB/9 was 3.29 and league average BB% was 8.5%. Hudson clearly was a control issue and he lets people on base a lot. If that weak contact goes away or is skewed more towards the normal he will be allowing a lot more runs. Another flaw is the lack of strikeouts, in 2019 his K% was 18.0% which was 5% lower than average. Hudson only has one pitch with strikeout upside which was his cutter that provided a 39.4 O-Swing% and 20.2 SwStr%. Otherwise, his sinker, four-seam, slider, and changeup all had a below-average SwStr%. 

Hudson seemed to get very lucky last year as well, four out of his five pitches show regression in terms of batting average. While he is a ground ball pitcher and you can expect a low BABIP, his BABIP is still very low at .274.

Hudson seems to have benefitted from some luck and while he did provide a lot of weak contact the control is a major concern. When you are drafting a team for fantasy baseball you want a pitcher with high upside, none the less high strikeout upside. We most likely saw Hudson’s best year and if he starts to let up harder contact with all of those hitters on base we could and should be looking at a major downfall. 

2020 prediction: 4.55 ERA

 

John Means. Baltimore Orioles

John Means had a breakout year in 2019 as he posted a 3.60 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 13.0 K-BB%. He was the lone bright spot in another bleak season for the Baltimore Orioles. Unfortunately, that bright spot will most likely burn out.

While on the surface Means seems like a great pitcher, his 3.60 ERA came with a 4.41 FIP and horrible 5.02 SIERA. This is most likely because of his unsustainable BABIP of .256. When you break down John’s stats by month, four out of the six months his FIP was above four, and in five out of the six months, his xwOBA was higher than his wOBA. Much like Hudson, there seems to be a ton of luck here.  

The main problem with Means (besides playing in Baltimore) is that he is a two-pitch pitcher. Two pitch pitchers can survive but Means two pitches are only about average. His four-seam was okay with a .273 batting average against and 2.9 pVAL and his changeup was decent with a 13.8 SwStr% and 38.9 O-Swing%. Neither seems special and then you look at his slider that didn’t cause batters to chase and a curveball that put up a .455 ISO and 242 wRC+!

Much like Hudson, luck seemed to be a significant reason for Means great 2019 season. The main issue of his lack of repertoire and a horrible home park to pitch in really cements the regression we should see in 2020. Let other owners draft Means and fall for that 3.60 ERA from 2019.

2020 prediction: 4.25 ERA

 

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

This might surprise a few people as Woodruff has been highly touted this offseason and one of the future stars in baseball. Woodruff lit the fantasy baseball world on fire as he put up a 3.62 ERA, 29.0 K%, and 3.01 FIP. He has great command, provided strikeouts, and his underlying ERA numbers show positive regression, so why the heck is he on this list?

The first problem with Woodruff is that he only had two pitches. While Means two pitches were average, Woodruff’s were actually very good. Woodruff boasts two amazing fastballs, his four-seam put up a .219 batting average against with a 11.9 SwStr%, and 14.2 pVAL. His sinker/two-seam put up an insane 60.0 GB%, 10.1 pVAL, and above-average movement. That is where the pitches pretty much stop. His slider only had a 12.7 SwStr% and 28.4 O-Swing%, while his changeup only let up a 130 wRC+ and .301 batting average against. So the question is, which one will be his third pitch?

As stated earlier Woodruff had a really high strikeout rate of 29.0%. Alex Chamberlain created expected metrics for walks and strikeouts and they aren’t too friendly to our boy Woodruff. In 2019 his expected K% was 26.9%, a solid 3% lower than his season number. The rule of thumb is to take a players SwStr%, double it and you should be around their K%. Woodruff’s SwStr% was 11.6% in 2019 which means he should have had a K% around 23%. 

Woodruff certainly has great stuff and room to grow and become an elite pitcher. As for 2020, the lack of a third pitch and with his strikeouts likely to come down we probably won’t be seeing a 3.62 ERA again. 

2020 prediction: 3.95 ERA

More Fantasy Baseball Busts and Avoids




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Miles Boykin1 hour ago

Heading To Chicago
Jalen Wilson2 hours ago

Sidelined On Thursday
Baker Mayfield2 hours ago

Tampa Bay Restructures Baker Mayfield's Deal
Case Keenum2 hours ago

Chicago Signs Case Keenum To One-Year Deal
Kyshawn George2 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Richaun Holmes2 hours ago

Out Versus Magic
Khris Middleton3 hours ago

Out Again Thursday Versus Magic
D'Angelo Russell3 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Noah Clowney3 hours ago

Done For Rest Of The Season
Jordan Poole3 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Scottie Barnes3 hours ago

Available On Thursday
Cedric Mullins3 hours ago

Goes Deep In Loss To Boston
Jonathan Drouin3 hours ago

Martin Necas, Jonathan Drouin Unavailable Thursday
Tyrese Maxey3 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of Season
Alexandar Georgiev3 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Henry Thrun4 hours ago

Returns From Nine-Game Absence Thursday
Taijuan Walker4 hours ago

Blanks Rockies For Six Innings To Earn First Win
Tanner Houck4 hours ago

Picks Up No-Decision In Four-Inning Outing
Olli Määttä4 hours ago

Olli Maatta Returns To Utah Lineup Thursday
Alex Bregman4 hours ago

Fills The Box Score In Win Over Orioles
Dylan Guenther4 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Jorge Polanco4 hours ago

Reinstated From Paternity List
Anthony Duclair4 hours ago

Takes Leave Of Absence
Carlos Rodriguez4 hours ago

Joining Brewers On Thursday
Alex Pietrangelo4 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Brady Tkachuk4 hours ago

Out On Thursday
DJ LeMahieu4 hours ago

"About A Week Away" From Taking Live At-Bats
Devin Williams4 hours ago

To Return From Paternity List On Friday
Jake Fraley4 hours ago

Gavin Lux, Jake Fraley Sitting Against A Lefty
Trey McBride5 hours ago

Cardinals Making Trey McBride The Highest-Paid Tight End In NFL History
Geno Smith5 hours ago

Raiders, Geno Smith Agree To Two-Year Extension
Jeferson Quero5 hours ago

Set Back With Hamstring Injury
Eguy Rosario6 hours ago

Clears Waivers, Outrighted To Triple-A
Xavier Isaac6 hours ago

Rays Hopeful Xavier Isaac Will Return In A Couple Of Weeks
Angel Genao6 hours ago

Won't Return Until June
Austin Wells6 hours ago

Being Rested On Thursday
Paul Goldschmidt6 hours ago

Sitting In Finale Against Arizona
Masataka Yoshida6 hours ago

Not Ready For Rehab Assignment
Edward Cabrera6 hours ago

Goes Three Innings In Rehab Start
6 hours ago

Tyler Shough Could Be Day 2 Pick In NFL Draft
Jake McCarthy7 hours ago

Gabriel Moreno, Jake McCarthy Sitting On Thursday
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

Shemar Stewart Meeting With Cowboys Staff
Ketel Marte7 hours ago

Sitting On Thursday After Signing Extension
New York Giants7 hours ago

Travis Hunter The Likely Pick For Giants?
Jake Meyers7 hours ago

Taking Seat For Third Straight Contest
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

DeMarvion Overshown Aiming For Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Luis Garcia7 hours ago

Shut Down With Elbow Inflammation
Washington Commanders8 hours ago

Commanders Sign T.J. Maguranyanga
Kansas City Chiefs8 hours ago

Mike Edwards Reunites With Chiefs
New Orleans Saints8 hours ago

Saints Could Take A Quarterback Early In The Draft
Joe Milton III11 hours ago

Traded To Cowboys
Anfernee Simons12 hours ago

Could Be Absent Again Thursday
Scoot Henderson12 hours ago

Misses Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Scottie Barnes12 hours ago

Iffy For Thursday
Immanuel Quickley12 hours ago

Takes Thursday Off
Jakob Poeltl12 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Damian Lillard12 hours ago

May Return To Action Sooner Than Expected
Giannis Antetokounmpo13 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Thursday
LeBron James13 hours ago

Probable Thursday
Jared McCann14 hours ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Wednesday
Jackson Blake14 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Artemi Panarin14 hours ago

Tallies Three Points In Overtime Victory
Andrei Svechnikov15 hours ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jake McCabe15 hours ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin15 hours ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Los Angeles Chargers23 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
23 hours ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals23 hours ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell24 hours ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers24 hours ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Jrue Holiday1 day ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets1 day ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Al Horford1 day ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Kristaps Porzingis1 day ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet1 day ago

Out Versus Utah
Evgeni Malkin1 day ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil1 day ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm1 day ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Samuel Girard1 day ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta1 day ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen1 day ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz1 day ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
1 day ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
1 day ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
Cameron Young2 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge2 days ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners2 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay2 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland2 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti2 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens3 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA3 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman3 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones4 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry5 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano5 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF