Starling Marte to Athletics - Fantasy Impact

July 29, 2021

The Oakland A's acquired veteran outfielder Starling Marte from the Miami Marlins in exchange for starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo. Pierre Camus examines their fantasy baseball value for 2021 and beyond.

In what is somewhat of an annual tradition, the Miami Marlins made a cost-cutting move wisely traded a veteran asset to acquire young talent with an eye toward the future. As obvious sellers at the trade deadline, they made the decision to deal the best hitter on their roster. Hence, 32-year-old outfielder Starling Marte is heading to the opposite league and coast by joining the Oakland A's in exchange for young hurler Jesus Luzardo. It was a pretty straightforward swap that made sense for both sides.

Oakland receives: OF Starling Marte, cash considerations
Miami receives: SP Jesus Luzardo

Marte was only in Miami for one year after being the rare trade deadline acquisition by the franchise in 2020. He helped the team to a postseason berth, but it's obvious that isn't the cards for the Fish in 2021 amidst a slew of pitching injuries and underachievement by the offense. Contract extension talks have recently failed to gain traction, so Marte was moved before free agency inevitably took him away. In exchange, they bolster the main strength of the franchise by adding another talented young pitcher who has also underachieved this year. Let's break down the short-term and long-term implications of this deal for both sides.

Starling Marte in Oakland

At this time, the A's are 56-46 and in position to make a postseason run. They are six games behind the Astros, who have made some additions of their own to fortify their bullpen. They must also stave off the surprising Mariners, who are just one game back in the wild card race.

Marte immediately addresses the team's need for an offensive boost. Oakland is middle-of-the-pack in terms of runs scored, ranking 14th in the majors. Their team batting average of .234 is down at 23rd in the league though. Marte also provides help defensively and adds speed at the top of the order.

Marte is posting a career-high .859 OPS on the strength of a .407 OBP that is well above his .345 career mark. For a player whose walk rate is always under league average, he has somehow defied that trend by walking at an 11.7% clip. His previous high was 6.1%. This has helped Marte rank again among the stolen base leaders with 22 thefts; only Whit Merrifield (25) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) have more.

It's fair to wonder whether that will remain the case, though. Miami has been one of the teams most willing to run in the Don Mattingly era, currently second in the majors with 0.92 stolen base attempts per game. Oakland is 19th with 0.51 SB attempts per game. This may be simply a result of the personnel they've had. Elvis Andrus, now age 32 and batting ninth, has a sprint speed in the 32nd percentile and is not much of a base-stealing threat any longer. Ramon Laureano and Mark Canha are the only A's that can contribute in that category, so Marte could be what this offense has been lacking. Whether he'll run at the same rate is truly unclear. Oakland was giving Laureano the green light every time he reached base to start the season and it resulted in eight steals in April alone. They've pumped the brakes since then and he only has three steals in the three months since, perhaps because he's been caught five times on 16 attempts.

As far as Marte's fantasy value, the bottom line is that his steals may go down a slight bit but it won't prevent him from being among the leaders at a notoriously hard category to find value in. His R+RBI totals can only improve after leaving the anemic Marlins lineup and power is not a major consideration for him. If it were, the park factor change would work in his favor anyway as Oakland has a .919 HR Factor compared to Miami at .859 this year.

There isn't a huge domino effect in Oakland's lineup, at least not one that matters for fantasy purposes. The team didn't trade away any position players, nor does it have any big names on IL. On the plus side, expect Matt Olson to get more RBI opportunities and Jed Lowrie becomes of more interest in deeper leagues if he sticks in the cleanup spot.

Marte's presence in the outfield alongside Mark Canha and Ramon Laureano will push Stephen Piscotty to a part-time role or a platoon at DH with Mitch Moreland. Piscotty has manned right field when healthy, but has not found a groove at the plate whatsoever. On the season, he is slashing .207/.266/.348 with five HR, 14 RBI, 14 R in 159 AB. He's been especially bad since returning from his latest IL stint, batting .133 with one homer in 30 July at-bats. He should only hit against lefties, seeing as how he is batting .156 vs RHP and Moreland is batting .171 vs LHP. Neither are more than fliers in DFS play.

Jesus Luzardo in Miami

The Marlins had a successful 2020, earning a playoff spot for the first time since 2003 and actually winning a series too. It's back to the same song, though. Miami is dead last in the NL East and currently has a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs. Thus invoked the fire sale that Marlins fans are all too familiar with. It began with Corey Dickerson, followed with Marte and Yimi Garcia, and could continue with more veterans like Jesus Aguilar, Garrett Cooper, and others.

The positive in all this is that another talented arm joins the roster. In the 2020 preseason, Jesus Luzardo was regarded as the top prospect in Oakland's farm system and ninth overall according to Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. His 70-grade slider and 60 Future Value grade made him one of the most enticing young left-handers in the game. He was modestly effective, posting a 4.12 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 59 strikeouts in 59 innings.

Ahead of 2021, his potential had many predicting a breakout once he got to join the rotation full-time. Instead, it has been a combination of injures and inconsistency that have conspired to give him a 6.87 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over 38 innings. His .388 wOBA is among the worst in the league.

More concerning is that he has looked back in the minors too, posting a 6.52 ERA in eight starts at Triple-A. It's hard to say what the issue has been so far. Even A's general manager David Forst couldn't pinpoint one thing.

“I can’t tell you what caused him to have trouble in the big leagues. We know he gave up a bunch of home runs. We talked about fastball command. I’m not sure there’s one thing right now. By baseball standards, he’s still a very young pitcher.”

Maybe the fracture to his throwing hand suffered in May has affected his grip or has mentally affected his release. It's possible he is simply suffering from a lack of confidence after struggling initially this season. Either way, it doesn't seem to be anything he can't overcome in the long run.

The sample is still small and Luzardo is just 23 years old, so the Marlins are willing to bet on the talent and their recent track record of developing pitchers such as Trevor Rogers, Pablo Lopez, and Sandy Alcantara.

Looking ahead a bit, but the @Marlins possible 2022 starting rotation is shaping up to be young and ferocious. #JuntosMiami #MLB pic.twitter.com/e4OtgFGWdf

— Bally Sports Florida: Marlins (@BallyMarlins) July 28, 2021

Let's not forget prospects Braxton Garrett, Nick Neidert, Zach Thompson, Edward Cabrera, Jorge Guzman, and last year's first-round pick, Max Meyer.

One last factor that could play into Luzardo's favor is the fact he is a local boy. As a native of Parkman, FL, Luzardo was drafted out of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in 2016 by the Nationals before ultimately going to Oakland. All the intangibles could help Luzardo develop into the type of pitcher he's been projected to be the last couple of years. It's hard to advise adding him in fantasy for the second half of this season as anything more than a stash or deep-league flier.

There will likely be an adjustment period or mechanical issues to iron out. Luzardo's struggles could be health-related as well and the team will be careful with him considering the price they paid to acquire him. They've already shut down Sixto Sanchez and three other starters are on IL, so there is no push to get Luzardo on the mound. As far as dynasty, this is the time to stash him or attempt to buy low in a trade.

Dynasty Implications

The previously-mentioned success rate of pitchers in Miami must boost the confidence level of Luzardo's fantasy managers in dynasty leagues. Oakland has been a great spot for pitching prospects but Miami has recently overtaken them. A favorable home park, move to the National League, and familiar surroundings could return his value to pre-2020 levels.

It does bring to mind the question of what the Marlins do with all those arms waiting in the minors, though. If that proposed five-man rotation can stay on the mound, then we'll be waiting on pitchers like Garrett and Thompson longer, both of whom have flashed strong starts this season. More marginal starters like Neidert lose some appeal.

Marte won't see much movement in his dynasty valuation based on this deal. He will remain at the top of the lineup and produce similarly for the rest of 2021, but as an impending free agent, he could land anywhere next season. The one concern is that his speed, while still excellent, is gradually declining as he ages. Marte's sprint speed was in the 92nd percentile in 2019, his last year with Pittsburgh. It is slowly creeping down, coming in at 89th in 2020 and 83rd in 2021.

Again, still excellent and his base-stealing efficiency has improved with age so he can still rank among the best base thieves in the game for another year or two. This is simply a reminder that speed is the first thing to go when players get older. Marte should be valued similarly in fantasy as in reality - a strong rental for the stretch run this year but not one whose long-term value will ever reach previous levels.

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