RADIO
Antonio Losada takes a look at some QB-WR-TE groups from the same teams worth stacking in redraft fantasy football drafts for the upcoming 2022 season.
When it comes to daily fantasy football, stacking players from the same team and offense on concrete weeks is a sound strategy. That is why elite DFS folks out there use that plan on a weekly basis. Data shows how around 80% of the best DFS results come from squads that stacked at least two players from the same team, so there is that. No wonder stacking is the way to go and a staple in DFS contests and best ball drafts.
That doesn't mean you can pull this off in redraft, season-long leagues. While there are no restrictions in terms of who makes the players pool in DFS matches (every player is available to every gamer), redraft leagues are based on taking players off a common board.
Even with that caveat, there is still plenty of value out there to stack and take advantage of without overpaying too much or altering your draft strategy overboard. Today, I'm highlighting some QB-WR groups worth stacking given their projections and the price (ADP) they could be gotten at. Let's get to it!
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Some Notes on the Methodology
First of all, I'm basing the following picks on PPR-format, 12-team leagues. Although it is common knowledge, I have calculated the average ADP for each position and the results (at the time of this writing) for them are as follows:
- Top-12 QBs combined average ADP: 64 (sixth round)
- Top-24 RBs: 29 (third round)
- Top-24 WRs: 36 (third round)
- Top-12 TEs: 65 (sixth round)
That means that most probably the quality of the players taken in your draft will follow the RB>WR>QB>TE order. Keep that in mind when you plan ahead your stacking strategy. Try to load on great expensive players first before they get off the board (RBs/WRs) and then try to find potential stacks that pair well with them in late rounds (TEs/QBs in this case).
For the purposes of this column, I'll be playing it safe. I've set a house rule in that if I pick one player with an ADP lower than the average for the position, I'll be forced to pick its partners from outside of the average ADP of those players' positions. For example, if I pick Lamar Jackson (ADP lower than the top QB's 64), I won't be able to pick Mark Andrews (ADP lower than the top TE's 65), for example.
Los Angeles Rams (Matthew Stafford > Cooper Kupp > Allen Robinson > Tyler Higbee)
Even though they ended up lifting the trophy, the Super Bowl champs aren't getting enough respect all things considered. The Rams have lost Odell Beckham Jr., Sony Michel, and Robert Woods but two of those three missed ample time last year and also two of those three (OBJ overlapping on both groups) were part-timers as LA acquired them with mid-season moves. Entering 2022, the offense has stayed pretty much the same considering OBJ and Michel didn't factor that much into the results and oft-injured Woods is out in favor of veteran and bounceback-candidate Allen Robinson coming from Chicago.
All of that doesn't seem to please fantasy GMs that much, though, as only Cooper Kupp (2021 no. 1 fantasy player overall) is getting drafted with a top-price pick (3.3 ADP) along with teammate RB Cam Akers (ADP 36.9). Other than that, A-Rob comes in third already down with an ADP of around 63 followed by Matthew Stafford (79) and Tyler Higbee (117). Even though I don't love to draft past no. 1 fantasy guys (Kupp) because of an obvious regression coming their way pretty much without fail, this is a golden opportunity to get massive value off a single offense.
Stafford, for some reason, never gets the attention he deserves from fantasy GMs. Looking at PFF's latest projections, he's one of only five QBs expected to break the 4,700-yard barrier and one of only two (the other being Tom Brady) to throw 35+ TDs next season. The one-two punch of A-Rob and Kupp at the wide receiver position is the one projected for the most combined PPR points (347.5) in the whole NFL, yet Robinson is available at a very affordable ADP of 63. Finally, Higbee projects to a top-12 TE finish next season while having an ADP below 117, making him the fourth-highest ROI (rank vs. ADP) among TEs projected to reach a top-12 finish.
Minnesota Vikings (Kirk Cousins > Justin Jefferson > Adam Thielen > Irv Smith Jr.)
If Matthew Stafford gets overlooked more than he should, then Kirk Cousins... I don't even know how to define his case, to be honest. Cousins has finished inside the top-15 QB realm in all past seven seasons and as a top-11 QB in six of those seven years. That's incredible production no matter how you look at it, folks. The FPPG marks have stayed steady ranging from a low of 16.6 in 2019 to a high of 19.1 in 2020. The man just keeps putting up numbers, and fantasy GMs keep passing on him for some reason--it's been three years in a row without an ADP higher than QB18 or 81.9 overall, just imagine!
Justin Jefferson--Cousins' no. 1 weapon as Adam Thielen slowly but surely ages himself out of the league--is obviously expensive as hell. JJ comes with an overall ADP of 5.3 as I'm writing this, only behind that of Kupp (3.3). That should be money well spent, though, as Jefferson hasn't stopped improving in his two years as a pro, going from WR6 to WR4 last year and raising his FPPG from 17.1 to 19.4 last season. It's been back-to-back campaigns with 1,400+ yards, 88+ receptions, and 7+ TDs. Guy just can't miss.
The two peripheral picks here would be WR Adam Thielen and TE Irv Smith Jr. It's crazy to speak about Thielen on those terms, honestly. AT is still a bona fide WR2/WR3 in the league, already accounting for missing time (he was out in six, one, and four games in the past three years in order). The TD% is insane (6, 14, and 10 touchdowns in the past three seasons) and he doesn't even have to be on the field that much to produce mighty figures. Irv Smith isn't a true top-tier TE but he's superb for the ridiculously low ADP he boasts these days: PFF projects a TE16 finish for the sweet price of a 117 ADP--while Smith won't have to deal with Tyler Conklin's competition, who left Minny for New York.
Los Angeles Chargers (Justin Herbert > Keenan Allen > Mike Williams > Gerald Everett)
I get there are concerns (multiple, indeed) regarding the Seattle Seahawks' short-term future in advance of the 2022 season's kickoff. It makes sense if we're honest. There is Drew Lock as the quarterback, which is a shaky proposition and mediocre at best. Then there is the lack of commitment from DK Metcalf and his soon-to-expire deal, bringing the potential of a trade before the start of the 2022 campaign or at some point throughout it. Maybe, just maybe, Tyler Lockett is the one who ends up getting moved in order to bring some sort of sweets capable of convincing Metcalf to re-ink Seattle's contract? Who knows?
What I know, though, is the fact that not a single Seahawk, not even Metcalf, is getting drafted as a top-tier player at their respective positions as I'm writing this at the very end of May. That is, simply put, a golden exploit opportunity and a clear glitch in the fantasy matrix. You know what to do if you're drafting this early in the summer, folks! Leaving Drew Lock aside (though he projects to some reasonably nice 321 FP--QB15--in PFF's latest sheet), it makes zero sense to find DK Metcalf getting drafted with an ADP of 46 while projecting to a WR9 finish!
Noah Fant, as PFF sees things, is going to finish 2022 as the TE7... yet he has a ridiculous 119.7 ADP as I'm writing this, good for TE16 off the draft board. Just in case, that's an ROI figure of 2.18 (ADP divided by overall final rank) and it's only topped by Logan Thomas'. And what about Lockett? The veteran wideout is playing next season at age 30 (even though that feels entirely wrong) and has reached 1,000+ yards, 73+ receptions, and 8+ TD in three seasons straight. He's finished inside the top-16 WRs in all of those years, including WR8 in 2020. Quite a bargain.
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