Spencer Aguiar's Top One And Done Picks To Consider - Shriners Children's Open

October 5, 2022

Spencer Aguiar dives into his most intriguing One and Done selections for the Shriners Children's Open. Here are some under-the-radar plays and picks for you to consider at this week's event.

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Here at RotoBaller, we are constantly searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, I am proud to announce my weekly PGA "One and Done" column, where I will look through some of my favorite potential targets on the board.

As has always been the case, you will be able to find the "staff picks" when we start the RotoBaller contest back up in 2023, but I am going to use this offseason to deep-dive into the boards for anyone that might be playing in a league that begins at the Fortinet Championship.

It remains to be seen if I will restart the tracking once the official year starts back up at the Sony Open since we might land in an awkward situation of two contests going on at once, but remember, any pick I make will be out of consideration moving forward. I'll always try to allude to options I no longer have at my disposal, but my top five list will be golfers I have not played as of that moment.

Let's start from #5 and work our way down to my best pick for the event.

One and Done Selections - Shriners Children's Open

#5 - Taylor Montgomery

I have a feeling we might play this game a lot over the fall, where I include Taylor Montgomery as a top-five option but inevitably end up going in a different direction for the OAD pick. In reality, consider this more of how great of a golfer the UNLV product could be as to why I keep trying to save him for down the road, but the upside continues to percolate over his first few starts on tour.

Montgomery ranks fifth in my model from an overall perspective, which stems from his back-to-back top 10 finishes to begin his career, and the birdie or better numbers look impressive for a golf course that will require better than 20-under par to capture this title. It remains to be seen if the home game feel of Vegas is a good or a bad element for him since we have seen it go both directions for other golfers on tour in the past, but the one thing that is for sure is that you won't find many golfers with better form entering the event.

#4 - Andrew Putnam

Six straight top 43 results for Andrew Putnam, including five landing inside the top 30, has him primed and ready to continue his run at a venue he has found success at in the past. The 33-year-old Pepperdine grad has generated two top 18 finishes at TPC Summerlin during his last three starts at the venue, stemming from a putter that has caught fire on this easy-rolling surface.

The driver will need to be better if he wants to take the next step in his maturation process of becoming a steadier golfer, but the lack of driving distance will be helped here by elevation, and the short game remains one of the more constant variables he can deploy weekly. There is an argument to be made that Putnam is possibly too safe for the upside that we should be looking to acquire in these contests, but I have an outright ticket on him at 95/1, and the top 10 appeal is there.

#3 - Brian Harman

Is it weird that Brian Harman didn't make my outright card but still managed to creep into the top three selections for the week? Maybe you could make an argument that excluding him wasn't the best path since I do seem to believe in his ability to perform on a less-than-distance course, but as I always say, we can't play everyone, and certain golfers work better in different avenues of the market.

Harman's irons are trending in the right direction, placing 33 spots better over the past 24 rounds when comparing it to my two-year baseline expectation, and his second-place grade for TPC courses and top 20 mark for the more accessible five holes of the week have propelled him into 12th place on my model for the Shriners. Those answers still lead me to believe that Harman can win, even if I won't have a ticket on it financially.

#2 - Alex Noren

Outside of someone who reads this article and decides to get cute with their selection, I can't imagine we see too many Alex Noren picks in games this week, although I believe it is something that should be highly considered.

Noren's statistical profile, in most people's minds, translates to a golfer that prefers complex tests, but I am not 100% sold that our best version of him comes in that area. Sure, we have gotten some top-notch Open Championship or European-style golf from him that has been true in that area to a broader extent, but his sixth-place grade when condensing the data down to feature only easy-scoring venues caught me off guard when I was building my model. If the short game can remain on point, and my belief rings true that his upside can come into play at an accessible track, Noren provides the exact contrarian template you are hoping to find in these games to get unique.

#1 - Aaron Wise

There are tournaments where I am not sure where I want to go with my OAD pick - last week being one of those examples - and then there are contests like the Shriners, where Aaron Wise was the pick from the second my model was put together on Monday morning.

You can read or listen to any of the content I have put out in the space if you want a more extended answer, but Wise checks all the boxes, which includes course understanding from being a member of TPC Summerlin and statistical prowess - something that pushes him up my board every time I run my model with a new outlook. I believe he wins this tournament, and I am going to find myself overexposed in all markets.

Official Selection: Aaron Wise

Running Total: $1,440,000

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

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