August 5, 2019

Spencer Aguiar's 2019 fantasy football projections for quarterbacks. He highlights his QB rankings with tiered analysis and projections for all the top players.

I believe all leagues are different and understanding the rules and settings will always be the deciding factor, but an interesting dichotomy has taken place recently of when it is acceptable to draft your quarterback. I am of the mindset, like most people nowadays, that waiting is better, but are we beginning to reach a point where the QB position is falling too far as a whole in "expert" drafts?

I will dive a little deeper into that narrative throughout this article, but let's get into what everyone came here to see. Here are my tiered quarterback rankings for the 2019 NFL season.

Scoring will be your standard 0.04 points per yard thrown, four-point passing TDs, two-point INTs, .10 of a point per rushing yard and six-point rushing touchdowns. Please note that there are some small differences between the projections and rankings, and this will be assessed as if it were a PPR league. I feel like that is important to note because QB values do take a more significant hit when dealing with full PPR scoring.

2019 Quarterback Projections - Redraft

2019 Fantasy Football QB Rankings

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Tier 1

#1 - Patrick Mahomes

Projected Fantasy Points: 350.14

The stars aligned for Patrick Mahomes during his historic 2018 campaign. The 23-year-old threw for a staggering 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns en route to the MVP award, but should we expect the same from the young gunslinger this year?

There have been a lot of talks about "touchdown regression" when it comes to Mahomes, but the more significant concern is the Chiefs' offense and what they will be able to produce as a unit. As much as everyone wants Damien Williams to be Kareem Hunt, that isn't the case, and it was shown by the Chiefs' lack of explosiveness down the stretch of 2018. After ranking fourth in the NFL between Weeks 1-12 in explosive running plays with Hunt, the team plummeted to 26th in their more meaningful games during Weeks 13-15.

None of this suggests that the roof is going to cave in entirely for the Texas Tech product, but their record-breaking offense probably won't be as dynamic as they were last season - which does somewhat limit approaching the same numbers as in 2019. With all that being said, Mahomes is the player who should be the first off your board when it comes to the QB position and is a value pick if you can grab him in the late fourth or early fifth rounds. That is an obtainable possibility in more advanced drafts, but his current ADP of 21st overall does suggest that he probably won't make it that long - which is fine as long as you aren't the one who pulls the trigger there.

#2 - Deshaun Watson

Projected Fantasy Points: 341.72

The Houston Texans somewhat addressed their offensive line needs by taking two players to protect Deshaun Watson with their first three selections, but many considered it a surprise to see Tytus Howard and Max Scharping as the choices to come off the board. Both players are a bit of a project for a team that allowed Watson to take a league-leading 65 sacks, but it can never be considered a total negative that they addressed the position and are trying to keep him upright.

Despite the concerns of Houston's offensive line play, if things break right for the Clemson product this year, it is within the realm of possibilities that he finishes the season as the number one overall scorer. His rushing ability adds a massive dynamic that not many other top-tier quarterbacks can replicate, and depending on how your league is treating the position, he is a name that is worth considering in the fifth or sixth rounds of your draft. Using my season-long forecasts, I have found through statistical research that either Mahomes or Watson in that previously mentioned range produces the optimal upside projection that your team can receive for the year. Players can be mixed and matched if you have anyone projected to score over 330 points at the position, but it is a good system to use to try and figure out when it is acceptable to go for your top QBs.

Tier 2

#3 - Aaron Rodgers

Projected Fantasy Points: 315.98

Despite putting together a 25 touchdown season with two interceptions in 2018, Aaron Rodgers struggled when being evaluated on more than a statistical basis. According to ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating, the Green Bay QB ranked just 16th in the league last year, posting the lowest TD rate of his career with 4.2 percent of his attempts finding the endzone.

While age surely has to be playing a factor for the 35-year-old when it comes to regression, Green Bay's offense turned into a scattered mess under former head coach Mike McCarthy, and there is no arguing that Rodgers can still make all the throws.

The hiring of new head coach Marr LaFleur will shift the offense into a balanced affair, but that isn't necessarily a negative when it comes to Rodgers' production level. More designed play-action fakes and deeper throws will be a welcoming sight for the former two-time league MVP, who was forced to orchestrate an offense that relied on his scrambling ability to keep plays alive in the past. Rodgers probably isn't the same threat that he once was his legs, but it seems likely that a positive touchdown regression will take place for the entire unit this year. I view there to be a dropoff between Mahomes/Watson compared to everyone else and probably wouldn't want to spend better than a seventh-round pick on Rodgers.

Tier 3

#4 - Kyler Murray

Projected Fantasy Points: 300.86

If I don't end up landing Deshaun Watson during the fifth or sixth rounds, Kyler Murray is usually the player I grab most frequently during my drafts. His current ADP of 100 means that he is falling into nearly the middle of the ninth round, but I'm more than willing to jump the gun to make sure I secure him a full round earlier.

The former Oklahoma QB's ceiling is tantalizing, and it is not difficult to see why he has overall QB1 potential. I have him slotted to finish sixth in my projections with a mere 24 touchdowns and 14 INTs, but I believe there are scenarios where we see the 21-year-old put together a similar rookie season that Deshaun Watson was having before it came to a crashing halt because of a torn ACL.

Murray has Vick-like speed to keep defenses honest and get out of trouble, but he also possesses accuracy with his throws, making him a one-of-a-kind type prospect. There will be some growing pains during his rookie season, but Arizona's defense is projected to be abysmal, and new head coach Kliff Kingsbury will bring with him a college-style Air Raid offense - which has the possibility to lead the league in total plays run.

It is very simple to claim Murray is going to be a turnover-prone machine during his first year and someone you should avoid, but even predicting him to finish sixth in INTs doesn't do much to his stock because of the pure volume that is possible. I projected him for a somewhat meager 544 passing attempts to be safe, but anything ranging between that and leading the league in passing plays seems reasonable to me.

#5 - Lamar Jackson

Projected Fantasy Points: 299.84

If you are looking for a quarterback that could put together a surprise performance and shock the fantasy community on his way to overall QB1 status, Lamar Jackson would be the poster-boys for that because of his rushing ability and game-changing style of play.

As you can tell by my projections, it wouldn't take much of an increase in Jackson's passing to see him catapult his way even further up the board, so it will be interesting to see how much of a step he is able to make in year two inside the pocket. If you are looking for pure potential, Jackson is worth a swing for the fence.

#6 - Carson Wentz

Projected Fantasy Points: 289.3

Over a year removed from Carson Wentz's breakout season in 2017 that saw the QB throw for 3,296 yards and 33 TDs in just 13 games, the sometimes injury-prone 26-year-old looks to be a massive value if you can secure him in round nine or 10.

The Eagles have upgraded almost all facets of their offense, adding offensive line help and new playmakers for Wentz to use at his disposal. The addition of DeSean Jackson should help to stretch the field, and the 32-year-old has boosted his team's yards per attempt as much as a full yard at every new stop he has made during his career. Long and rangy rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside excelled in college in bringing in 50/50 type balls, and RB Miles Sanders adds in a player who can become an integral part of the passing game. Wentz has top-five upside on Philadelphia's high-scoring offense and could be a value this late in the draft.

#7 - Matt Ryan

Projected Fantasy Points: 301.96

The Atlanta Falcons have a few question marks on offense after hiring offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Koetter has been on record saying that he wants Atlanta to be a more balanced offense under his watch and will make it a point of emphasis to increase their ability to run the football. None of that is great news for Ryan, who threw over 600 passing attempts last year for the fifth time in the past seven seasons.

Atlanta's indoor arena and middling defense will make sure that Ryan doesn't lose much more than seven or eight percent of his attempts - in my opinion, but there is a definite cause for concern that the 34-year-old loses enough volume to drop him towards a bottom-end top-10 fantasy QB. If he is there in the 10th round, I will take a shot on him producing 30+ TDs as he has been recently, but his 6.11 ADP suggests that he will probably be off the board long before then in most conventional settings. I have seen him drop into the 10th round during some drafts, but it isn't something I would anticipate happening outside of "expert" type leagues. For that reason, he is usually a pass for him at his going rate.

#8 - Baker Mayfield

Projected Fantasy Points: 292.4

Defining my first few tiers into such small ranges usually means that I am walking away with Deshaun Watson or Kyler Murray because of where I am willing to draft them, but in the rare case that everyone goes QB crazy early and Murray is gone before I get a chance to grab him, we probably do need to start broadening up our zones slightly. I'd prefer to take the cheapest of QB6-QB12 in round 10 if possible, although I don't mind moving up to grab any of them in round 9 if your mind is set on one over the rest.

A lot of these players come down to what their draft capital will be, and while Baker Mayfield is my sixth-ranked QB this season, it just isn't worth grabbing him at his ADP of 66th overall.

As is the case with all players in this range, Mayfield would be entirely in play in round nine or higher, but there is no point in jumping the gun when similar players could be had three or four rounds later. It all comes down to cost, and a lot would have to break the right (or wrong) way for me to own Mayfield this season. That doesn't mean he won't have a sensational campaign for the upstart Browns, but he isn't my cup of tea anywhere near his sixth-round price tag.

Tier 4

#9 - Jameis Winston

Projected Fantasy Points: 294.60

Jameis Winston is a high upside player that possesses the ability to lead the league in passing yards and attempts playing under new head coach Bruce Arians. Perhaps even more importantly, his ADP of 114 makes him a perfect player to target.

It is obviously difficult to be overly bullish on a quarterback that got outplayed by a journeyman last season, but Winston's upside to attempt over 600 passes can't be understated. The 25-year-old occupies as much volatility as anyone else in this range - meaning I'd probably jump sooner than usual to grab a second QB for security purposes. But the combination of Winston and a safer QB like Dak Prescott isn't something I would be left overly upset about at the end of my draft. There is also no reason why you couldn't pair a combination of Murray or Jackson with Winston as your one-two punch either.

#10 - Cam Newton

Projected Fantasy Points: 289.26

Extremely volatile since 2013, Cam Newton has ranked third, 17th, first, 18th, second and 12th in scoring compared to other players at the position. However, the damage that his body has taken as a runner always makes him an increased risk to put together one of the messier outputs of his career. Anyone who watched the 30-year-old throw the football before getting shut down last year will remember just how ugly his throwing mechanics seemed, and it has been difficult to get that image out of my head.

With D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel both expected to take massive leaps in 2019, it is impossible to discount the three-time Pro Bowler completely, but Newton is a boom-or-bust option that could be a league-winner if all goes right but also a complete bust if it moves in the opposite direction.

#11 - Dak Prescott

Projected Fantasy Points: 288.68

You can make numbers look any way you want, and by saying Dak Prescott finished 2018 as the third-ranked QB over the last six weeks is probably reaching a little. Not every QB played during the final few contests of the year, but it does go to show that Prescott's average of 20.4 points per game during that duration of time shouldn't be scoffed at when assessing his upside this year.

While Ezekiel Elliott continuing his holdout doesn't help the Cowboys get better as a team, it could provide Prescott with more responsibility and fantasy scoring potential. I think the offense will roll better if all pieces are available, but I'm not necessarily jumping off Prescott as my 11th QB if Elliott does stretch his absence into the season. There is a lot to like about Dak in 2019, and he should be able to produce as a borderline QB1.

#12 - Jared Goff

Projected Fantasy Points: 287.98

The Los Angeles Rams might need to lean more on their passing game going forward, given the uncertain status of running back Todd Gurley. Any reduction in Gurley's workload could allow Jared Goff to become an even more focal part of the offense, although I believe head coach Sean McVay would limit an all-out aerial attack and figure out a way to keep things slightly more balanced if worse came to worse.

Goff has generated a TD rate of 5.9 and 5.7 percent in the past two years - an extremely high percentage for any QB, but what would happen if Gurley did indeed end up not being his old self? Some could argue that the RB being hampered at all would hurt the QBs touchdown frequency percentage immensely, but the return of WR Cooper Kupp will give the Rams the best three-headed monster in the league and should allow Goff to keep the offense humming under the expertise of McVay. The 24-year-old is very much in play as a potential back-end QB1 and has the upside of serving that role for you this season in the 10th round or beyond.

Tier 5

#13 - Josh Allen

Projected Fantasy Points: 289.62

#14 - Russell Wilson

Projected Fantasy Points: 278.18

#15 - Drew Brees

Projected Fantasy Points: 278.16

#16 - Mitch Trubisky

Projected Fantasy Points: 276.06

#17 - Philip Rivers

Projected Fantasy Points: 273.92

#18 - Ben Roethlisberger

Projected Fantasy Points: 272.02

#19 - Kirk Cousins

Projected Fantasy Points: 271.04

You might be surprised seeing names like Drew Brees and Russell Wilson this far down the list, but I am not sold that anyone in this range performs the way that some are expecting in 2019. It worth noting that margins between some of my top-five players and options in this range are barely over a point per game, so there will be some ebbs and flows we will have to deal with.

Brees' passing attempts declined by 184 from his career-high output of 673 in 2016 to his paltry total of 489 last season. I do believe we see him increase that total by around 40 attempts in 2019, but the Saints have transformed into a systematic attack that centers around Alvin Kamara.

Mitch Trubisky is the wild-card of the group if head coach Matt Nagy allows him to be more aggressive on offense, but it is difficult to rank him higher than 16th with the way the team is constructed. And Russell Wilson is one of my ultimate passes at his ADP of 79th overall. Wilson's 8.2 percent TD rate last season was nearly 2.2 percent higher than his career average, and Seattle isn't getting more aggressive with their passing game any time soon.

Tier 7

#20 - Tom Brady

Projected Fantasy Points: 260.42

#21 - Derek Carr

Projected Fantasy Points: 255.6

#22 - Jimmy Garoppolo

Projected Fantasy Points: 253.06

#23 - Matthew Stafford

Projected Fantasy Points: 251.66

#24 - Sam Darnold

Projected Fantasy Points: 247.72

#25 - Jacoby Brissett

Projected Fantasy Points: 245.82

For those of you playing in a two-quarterback league, I wouldn't feel comfortable starting a player after QB25. All five choices in this tier should be in for moderately successful seasons, but their lack of upside does diminish what they will be able to accomplish. The hope is to find the option that can work his way into being a high-end QB2, and I think it is possible that anyone in this range could make that jump.

*** With the sudden announcement of Andrew Luck's retirement, Jacoby Brissett will take over the reins for the Colts. Brissett does have some upside to him on Indianapolis' potent offense, but this results in a huge downgrade for every member of the team.

Tier 8

#26 - Andy Dalton

Projected Fantasy Points: 233.24

#27 - Marcus Mariota

Projected Fantasy Points: 232.78

#28 - Nick Foles

Projected Fantasy Points: 203.14

WARNING! If we haven't already, we are about to dive straight off a cliff and into the point of no return. If you have ignored QB in your two-QB draft and either need to secure a second starting option or a backup for your bench, please do not exceed these limits. DANGER IS AHEAD!

Andy Dalton, Nick Foles and Marcus Mariota have locked in roles as their teams' starting option, and that alone makes them worth taking before the roof caves in over our heads. All have shown the ability to produce as QB2s in the past, so don't wait any longer!

Tier 9

#29 - Eli Manning

Projected Fantasy Points: 176.14

#30 - Joe Flacco

Projected Fantasy Points: 154.36

#31 - Dwayne Haskins

Projected Fantasy Points: 147.92

#32 - Josh Rosen

Projected Fantasy Points: 128.6

NOOOOOOOO!!!!!! I regret to inform you that we have come to a crashing halt and have walked over the edge. Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Dwayne Haskins and Josh Rosen are all most likely in store for shortened seasons due to benchings or delayed starts to their campaigns.

Assuming Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the starting job to begin the season in Miami, he might be the player that I am looking to target instead of Rosen, but this whole tier and beyond will be brutal to own if you are looking for any consistency.

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