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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! What an up and down first weekend of the NFL playoffs we had, with some fun games and a couple of utter blowouts. However, we have a great game to close out the Divisional Round on Sunday night as the Bills (11-6) head to Kansas City to take on a Chiefs team (12-5) that eliminated them in the AFC Championship last season. Let's break it down.
In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football slate on January 23rd. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NFL DFS Captain Plays
Josh Allen ($18,000 DK, $17,500 FD)
We obviously need to start with Josh Allen. The Bills' quarterback had a near-perfect game in the first round against New England, completing 21 of 25 passes for 308 yards and five touchdowns to go along with 66 yards on the ground. That added up to 41.9 DraftKings points. In his first game against the Chiefs this year, Allen completed only 15 of 26 passes, but he threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 59 and a touchdown. That diverse skillset is exactly the reason why he will likely be the most popular captain choice on the slate. When you add to that the fact that the Chiefs are 26th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the last month and that includes games against Drew Lock and Ben Roethlisberger, you should feel even more confident in using Allen. Joe Burrow threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 17, and Allen absolutely has the upside to match that. He should be a lock in your lineups, even if you use somebody else at captain.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox, Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes ($16,800 DK, $17,000 FD)
If you think the Chiefs are going to repeat their playoff victory against the Bills, Mahomes may be the best option to use. Since the Bills' passing defense has been so strong this year, it's hard to see a clear matchup advantage for any of Mahomes' weapons. The Chiefs' starts could all absolutely have strong games, but this might be a situation where Mahomes spreads the love around instead of attacking just one player. We saw his ceiling against the Steelers in the Wild Card round when he threw for 404 yards and five touchdowns, accounting for 41 DraftKings points; however, things should be a little tougher against a Bills defense that is 3rd in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the last month and 4th-best in that category over the second half of the season.
Recommendation: GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Josh Allen
Stefon Diggs ($14,700 DK, $13,500 FD)
If you want to move away from starting either quarterback in your captain spot, I think Stefon Diggs is likely your best bet. Over the final few weeks of the regular season, his target share in the Bills' offense jumped as the team tried to force more targets his way instead of spreading the ball around. He never dropped below 23% of the team's total targets from Week 12 on and had over 30% of the targets in each of the final three games of the regular season. The Chiefs also rank 29th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers over the last month, in large part due to giving up 266 yards and three touchdowns to Ja'Marr Chase in Week 17. Stefon Diggs repeating those kinds of numbers is not likely; however, we've seen what a ceiling game for a wide receiver against the Chiefs can be, and if Diggs gets anything close to that ceiling in your captain spot, you can likely start counting your money.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes
Other Captains: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Travis Kelce ($13,500 DK, $14,500 FD)
Travis Kelce is usually a strong captain option when the Chiefs play, and he certainly could be an option in this game but the matchup against the Bills is not an easy one, especially when Matt Milano is in the lineup as he will be on Sunday. The Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to tight ends over the last month and rank 1st in the NFL in that metric over the second half of the season. A large part of that is due to Milano, who the Bills usually use to cover opposing tight ends. He has given up the fewest yards per target in the NFL (min. 150 targets) since 2017 and also leads the NFL in coverage success rate and catch rate allowed over expected. When the Bills played the Chiefs in October, Kelce had 6 catches for 57 yards, but he did find the end zone, and his clear red zone role on a good offense will always make him a fantasy option.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen
Tyreek Hill ($15,000 DK, $14,000 FD)
One reason to fade Kelce might be the same reason to attack Tyreek Hill if you think the Chiefs are going to have success against this Bills' pass defense. Even though the Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers over the 2nd half of the season, they will be playing without Pro Bowl cornerback Tre'Davious White, who tore his ACL in the Thanksgiving win over the Saints. While the Bills have been able to mitigate the damage White's injury caused due to the stellar play of their safety duo (Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde), there is a clear talent discrepancy between Hill and Bills' cornerbacks Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson. While the Bills don't usually give up big plays, Hill is the most likely candidate to break one, and could even do so on a short route where he can break free from one of the Bills' corners. It is important to note that Hill and Kelce don't often correlate well together; when one of them has a big game, it is usually means the other doesn't, so it might make sense when building your lineups to decide who you think is most likely of the two to have the better day and then leave the other out of your lineup.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK, FD)
Best Correlations: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen
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Devin Singletary ($13,200 DK, $13,000 FD)
Devin Singletary has been incredible for the Bills over the last month and a half. Since he wrestled the starting job away from Zack Moss and Matt Breida, the Bills have gone from a rotation of backs to giving Singletary pretty much all the snaps. No Bills running back aside from Singletary has had more than 15% of the team's carries since Week 12, and Singletary has gotten at least 30% of the team's touches in every game since Week 15, scoring seven touchdowns over that five-game span. However, it is important to note that the Bills were in the lead in all of those games, which may have accounted for Singletary's increased workload. In negative gamescripts, the Bills haven't used Singletary as much in the passing game, often turning to players like Isaiah McKenzie and Cole Beasley for short passes instead of just using running backs. However, it's clear that Singletary has earned more touches regardless of gamescript, and the Chiefs' run defense might be vulnerable despite ranking 5th in fantasy points allowed to running backs over the last month. Over that same span, they have also allowed 4.76 yards per carry and 21 receptions, which is 4th-most in the NFL; yet, they have only allowed one rushing touchdown to running backs, which has caused their fantasy rank to be higher. We know that Josh Allen always poses a threat to vulture touchdowns, but if you think the Bills will be playing from ahead for much of this game, having Singletary in your lineup would make sense.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK, FD)
Best Correlations: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($11,700 DK, $11,500 FD)
As of Friday afternoon, Edwards-Helaire is trending towards being back as the Chiefs' starting running back. He practiced in full during the week; however, the Chiefs won't commit to him playing and continue to mention that the training room will decide his eligibility. If CEH is healthy enough to play, you'd have to expect that he takes back the majority of the early-down snaps with Jerick McKinnon mixing in and playing a majority of the passing downs. While McKinnon did look good last week against the Steelers, he is historically not a strong between the tacklers runner and likely wouldn't be used as much in the red zone, which means Edwards-Helaire would get the majority of the high-upside touches. While the Bills defense has been better against the run of late (ranking 11th in fantasy points allowed to running backs over the second half of the season), we have seen the get gashed on the ground by players like Jonathan Taylor and Damien Harris. Now, the Chiefs don't have that kind of power running game, but if they do get ahead early, they could look to pound the ball and attack the Bills' weakness in the middle, which would seem to lean more towards a strong game for Edwards-Helaire. However, if you think the Bills control the game, then you might want to lean towards using McKinnon. Whichever way you go, you'll likely never be 100% certain which Chiefs running back is going to get the majority of the work.
Recommendation: GPP (DK, FD)
Best Correlations: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Patrick Mahomes
Other Flex Plays: Dawson Knox, Gabriel Davis, Emmanuel Sanders($8,500 FD), Byron Pringle, Jerick McKinnon
NFL DFS Value Plays
Cole Beasley ($6,600 DK, $9,500 FD)
Honestly, there aren't many true values in this game, with few playable options coming in under $7,000 on DraftKings. Beasley has seemingly fallen down the Bills' depth chart and saw the 5th-most snaps among wide receivers in the Wild Card round. Gabriel Davis is now certainly the Bills' number two wide receiver and a solid option in this game, and Emmanuel Sanders is also still seeing the third-most snaps among wide receivers and can be used in the deep passing attack if the Bills air it out against the Chiefs early and often. However, I would encourage people not to forget Beasley. The Bills have used him differently based on whether a defense is playing Man or Zone. When defenses play Man, like the Patriots, the Bills often attack with the outside receivers (Diggs and Davis) while also using Isaiah McKenzie more because of his electric speed. However, when teams play zone, as the Chiefs often do, the Bills rely on Beasley's route running and ability to find soft spots in the coverage as a chain-moving option for Allen. Therefore, if you think the Bills are going to pass often and might not have as much success simply attacking with their outside receivers, Beasley could make sense as a salary-saving option. However, he is more of an option on DraftKings due to the site's true PPR scoring.
Recommendation: GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes
Tyler Bass ($6,000 DK, $9,000 FD) and Harrison Butker ($6,300 DK, $9,500 FD)
Kickers are optimal: Playoff Edition. Despite Bass having some issues with extra points in the cold last week, he has been tremendous for the Bills this season. He's made 28 of 32 field goals this season, including hitting four of five from 40-49 yards and two of four from over 50 yards. However, since the Bills have cleaned up their issues in the red zone over the last five weeks, Bass has been used less often than earlier in the year. Butker is also a strong option, hitting 25 of 28 field goals this year, including seven of nine from over 50 yards and four of five from 40-49 yards. While I think this one ends up being a shootout, and both of these teams tend to go for it on fourth and short in their opponents' territory, there should be some opportunities for field goals, so I like the idea of picking one kicker to save salary.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Devin Singletary, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Other Value Plays: Isaiah McKenzie, Demarcus Robinson
Happy playoffs everyone, and best of luck tonight!
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