RADIO
Michael Florio's fantasy football sneaky starts, pivot plays, and post-waiver waiver pickups for Week 7 of the NFL season. Start 'em as under-the-radar fantasy sleepers this upcoming week.
Remember back in July when you were so excited about fantasy football and could not wait for the season to begin? Now, just seven weeks into the season, many of our teams look pretty beat up. Every week, more and more injuries have piled up and now we have six teams on bye to deal with.
This is also a crucial point of the season. My advice has been if you are sitting at 5-1 or better, you should be looking to acquire players on bye or injured players that can make a big impact from the teams lower in the standings. On the flip side, if you are 2-4 or worse, you are in a season-saving mode and should be looking to trade those players on bye or hurt, for players that can help you immediately.
But, if you want to keep waiting on your players, there are plenty of pivot options and sneaky starts this week. Let's begin.
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Quarterback Pivot Options for Fantasy Football
Pivot options in case Justin Fields, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, and Jimmy Garoppolo don’t play or you don’t like your QB's matchup…
Sam Howell has topped 18 fantasy points in four of his last five games, even reaching 25 in one of them. Howell has thrown for 290 passing yards in three of those -- the same number of games with multiple passing touchdowns. Plus, we know he can add value with his legs.
The Giants rank middle of the pack against QBs, but they are not a defense to avoid. Especially when six teams are on bye. Howell is a strong streamer this week.
First career 3 TD game for Sam Howell? ✔️
Up next: #WASvsNYG Sunday at 1pm on CBS pic.twitter.com/M7ZMuuPb53
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) October 16, 2023
Jordan Love is coming off his worst game of the season in Week 5 and then had a bye in Week 6. That likely led to him being tossed back on the waiver wire in many leagues. Well, grab him if you need a QB streamer this week. He has topped 20 fantasy points three times and shown he can add value with his legs -- running for over 35 yards in two of his last three.
He also has two rushing touchdowns in that span. He has an amazing matchup against the Broncos, who have allowed the most passing yards and touchdowns this season. They have allowed the second-most fantasy PPG to QBs. You can do worse than Love at QB this week.
Joshua Dobbs is coming off two down weeks, but in the three games prior, he had topped 17 in each and over 23 in two of them. The floor is not very high with Dobbs, but he has shown upside, especially since he can add value with his legs. Now, he gets the Seahawks, who allow 17.5 fantasy PPG to QBs, just outside the top 10. They also struggle to contain receivers. Dobbs is in play as a pivot option this week.
If you are in two QB leagues, you are looking for anyone with a pulse at this point. Given the injuries to the position and the byes, it could be hard to field a second QB this week. If these players start this week, I rank them in this order: Tyrod Taylor, Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, and Tyson Bagent. The matchups are better for O’Connell and Bagent though.
Running Back Pivot Options for Fantasy Football
Pivot options if Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Craig Reynolds don't play…
Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason are both very much in play if Christian McCaffrey is out this week. The issue is the 49ers do not play until Monday night, so there is certainly some added risk here. Last week, we saw Mason lead the way between the two, playing 27 percent of the snaps with five carries for 27 yards and a touchdown.
Mitchell played 13 percent of snaps, with just two carries for -3 yards. That would point to Mason being the lead back, but it is different filling in mid-game than being the starter and Mitchell has more experience there. That is why I lean on him, but both are options you can pivot to this week.
Zach Evans and Darrell Henderson Jr. are both options now that Kyren Williams is out for the next couple of weeks. This is a bit of a guessing game as Evans was the primary backup but the Rams then brought in Henderson, who was with the team last year and knows this system well.
They also brought in Myles Gaskin from the Vikings, who run a similar offense to the Rams. I lean Evans and think the most likely scenario is that he leads the way. But Henderson having more usage than anticipated is very much a possibility. Evans is an RB2 or flex option this week and Henderson is a deeper league flier.
Roschon Johnson and D’Onta Foreman are also both in play this week. The Raiders have allowed over 20 fantasy PPG to running backs and just allowed a big get-right spot to Rhamondre Stevenson.
The Bears tend to like to rotate their backs by drives, with the lead runner playing two of every three. We have to monitor if they keep using them that way with the backups, but I am anticipating that Johnson will lead the way. But given the uncertainty of usage, both are more Flex options.
Kareem Hunt played 37 percent of the snaps last week with 12 carries, 12 routes, and three targets for 71 yards and a touchdown. It was the most run he has had in a game this season. The Browns should be playing with a lead, or at the least be in a competitive game, with the Colts, meaning they will likely run the ball a whole bunch. Hunt will play the secondary role for the Browns, but that could still be in the range of 15 touches again this week. He is in play as a sneaky option.
Wide Receiver Pivot Options for Fantasy Football
Pivot options in case Deebo Samuel, DeVonta Smith, and Zay Jones don’t play…
Rashee Rice and Kadarius Toney are both once again in play as pivot options this week. If I had to pick, I surprisingly lean toward Rice, just because I like his usage more. Last week, Rice ran the second-most routes among Chiefs receivers and his 72 yards was second-most on the team. Rice has drawn a target on 33 percent of his routes this season, which trails only Travis Kelce on the Chiefs.
Toney, who has been second in targets the last two weeks for the Chiefs, also is heavily involved when he is on the field but he is used almost as an extension of the run game. Rice is used more downfield. But both are in play against the Chargers, who have allowed the most fantasy PPG to receivers, including the fifth-most yards, and are tied for the third-most TDs allowed to the position.
Wan’Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt are another set of teammates that are both in play this week. Robinson is coming off his best game of the season where he caught all eight of his targets for 62 yards. He has now seen at least six targets in three straight games.
Hyatt, who received more playing time running the second-most routes on the Giants last week, is a sneaky option as well. Both are options due to the matchup against the Commanders, who have allowed the most yards, touchdowns, and third-most fantasy PPG to receivers. But they specifically have allowed the most yards and touchdowns to wide receivers on deep passes -- an area where Hyatt excels.
Michael Wilson put up a dud a week after he was a big waiver wire target and fantasy managers may not be so quick to forgive. But he deserves another shot this week. Wilson has topped nine fantasy points and 60 yards in three of his last four games. Now, he gets the Seahawks, who who have allowed the second-most fantasy PPG to receivers. They’ve given up the eighth-most yards and third-most touchdowns to the position. Seattle also runs a lot of zone defense, which is where Wilson can thrive.
Sneak preview for tonight's Week 7 game previews...
The Seahawks run the highest ran of Zone coverage (85.0%)
Michael Wilson... has one target and zero receptions versus man. His entire stat line has come versus Zone coverage 👀
— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) October 17, 2023
Tight End Pivot Options for Fantasy Football
Pivot options in case Hunter Henry doesn’t play or you need a streaming option…
Jonnu Smith has remained a factor for the Falcons even with Kyle Pitts returning more to form as of late. Smith has at least five targets in five straight games. He has also topped eight fantasy points in each of those games and has topped double-digits in three straight games.
He caught a touchdown and was the TE4 last week. Smith brings a very safe floor for a tight end and lately has shown he brings more upside than you would anticipate. You can do a lot worse than streaming Smith this week.
Taysom Hill had surprisingly high usage last week. He ran 33 routes and was targeted eight times, tied for the second-most on the Saints, catching seven for 49 yards. Hill also threw a pass and carried the ball once, finishing with 12.26 fantasy points, which made him the TE6 on the week.
The floor is low as he had scored less than four fantasy points in the three games prior. But there is an upside here as he could be used as a tight end, QB, or goal-line runner. Plus, the Jags have allowed the fifth-most fantasy PPG to TEs. With Juwan Johnson out this week, Hill is a pivot option.
Taysom Hill had his hands full yesterday 💪 pic.twitter.com/93AyZDRyRO
— Saints Happy Hour Podcast (@SaintsHappyHour) October 16, 2023
Luke Musgrave has seen at least seven targets in his last two healthy games. There was the Thursday Night Football game against the Lions where he was in play as a streamer but left early due to a concussion. The Packers also had a bye last week so Musgrave is likely on a lot of waivers.
He has topped nine fantasy points in his last two healthy games and there is a chance that the rookie is even more involved coming off the bye. He is a strong streaming option against the Broncos, who give up a ton of production each week.
Michael Mayer has been getting more run over the past two weeks. He is coming off his best game of the season where he caught five of his six targets for 75 yards. The rookie has been getting more opportunities and turning them into production. He could see more and more work as the season progresses.
He is a sneaky option this week against the Bears, who are one of nine teams to allow over 10 fantasy PPG to tight ends this season. If you miss out on these options, you can pivot to Cade Otton. He gets the Falcons, who allow the eighth-most fantasy PPG to tight ends.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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