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Michael Florio's sneaky fantasy football starts, pivot plays, and post-waiver waiver pickups for Week 16. Start 'em as under-the-radar fantasy sleepers.
Congrats to those still in need of sneaky starts or pivot plays – that likely means you are in your league's semifinals! That in its own right is a huge accomplishment. More importantly, it also means you are just two wins away from that ultimate goal you set out to achieve every summer – winning your fantasy football league championship!
Every week at this point is vital, but it usually feels like the semifinal week is the one where teams are fully tested and weird things tend to happen. I mean, we already have a huge monkeywrench thrown our way with the Jalen Hurts news dropping on Monday, even though he finished the game and looked fine.
With a game this vital, do not get too cute. I am not going to include any super deep, hail-mary type of plays, because well, you shouldn't be using those guys at this point of the season. Start the absolute best lineup you can - even if that means using a safe floor play rather than a swing for the fence but could get you a zero type of player.
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Quarterback Pivot Options for Fantasy Football
If QBs Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson don’t play, you can pivot to…
Daniel Jones was averaging 18.8 fantasy PPG in the five games prior to his Week 15 dud. His low game in that span was 14.5 fantasy points, showing that he brings a safe floor. Plus, he’s run more this season, so it helps elevate his floor and ceiling. The Vikings have allowed the seventh-most fantasy PPG to QBs this season (19.1) and seven of the last nine QBs who faced them have finished top-10 that week. Jones is very much in play in a game the Giants will likely be chasing points.
Gardner Minshew averaged 17.9 fantasy PPG as a starter in 2020, which was 13th at the position. That was after averaging 16.4 fantasy PPG as a rookie. Now, he is in a better system with a better supporting cast around him. The matchup is tough, but if you need to replace Jalen Hurts, Minshew likely is the best option out there. Unless you can get Jones, welcome to the starting lineup, Minshew Mania.
Brock Purdy has averaged 19 fantasy PPG in his two starts for the 49ers. As always, starting Purdy is less about trusting him than it is about trusting Kyle Shanahan’s system and the playmakers around Purdy. That should be the case again this week, perhaps with even more throwing as the Commanders are very stout against the run but struggle against the pass. He is very much in play if you are looking for a streamer this week.
Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson are in play for those who are desperate in two QB leagues with Jalen Hurts. I find myself in one situation where I have to decide between the two and I am leaning toward Darnold because he plays on Saturday, so it allows me to give Hurts as much time as possible. Darnold gets the Lions, who have allowed the most fantasy PPG to QBs – including giving up over 19 fantasy points to Wilson last week. Wilson faces the Jags, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy PPG to QBs – in fact, outside of Russell Wilson, every QB who has faced them since Week 6 has finished as a top-12 fantasy QB. Again, these are only for the desperate, but you have options.
Running Back Pivot Options for Fantasy Football
If RBs Nick Chubb and Zonovan Knight don’t play, you can pivot to…
Zack Moss and Deon Jackson are both in play as pivot options this week. Last week, it was Moss playing two-thirds of the snaps, carrying the ball 24 times for 81 yards. Jackson carried the ball 13 times for 55 yards on a third of the snaps. This was a game where the Colts led throughout until they no longer did. Moss should lead the way on the ground, while Jackson is the RB that should see more pass game usage. Moss brings a safer floor, but Jackson is the upside play.
Tyler Allgeier played 48 percent of the snaps with 17 carries and one target, turning it into 139 yards and a touchdown. He is splitting work with Cordarrelle Patterson, but Allgeier has been the far more explosive option. This week against the Ravens could be a close game and we know the Falcons will opt to run the ball a ton if given the chance. Allgeier is a strong pivot option this week.
James Cook played 34 percent of the snaps with five carries and three targets last week, turning them into 39 yards and a touchdown. It's not the volume we would like to see, but the explosive Cook is seeing the field more consistently as of late. The floor is low, but he always is a threat to break out a long run or score a touchdown. If you are searching the wire for a pivot option, you could do worse than Cook.
Wide Receiver Pivot Options for Fantasy Football
If WRs Chris Olave and Courtland Sutton don’t play, you can pivot to…
Darius Slayton and Richie James are both in play against the Vikings. Slayton has averaged 6.8 targets per game in the last five weeks and was averaging 13.8 fantasy PPG in the six games prior to Week 14. Slayton lines up out wide and can win downfield. Both should lead to fantasy points this week against the Vikings, who have allowed the most yards to receivers lined up out wide, as well as the third-most yards on passes of both 10-plus and 20-plus air yards. They have also allowed the third-most fantasy PPG to receivers (40.6). Slayton is a strong play, but for those in deeper leagues, you can grab James, who has started seeing consistent weekly volume for the GMen.
Chris Moore has averaged 10 targets per game in the last two weeks. We have seen a floor and ceiling game in each of those. That volume could lead to a big game this week against the Titans, who have allowed the most fantasy PPG to receivers (41.7). They also allow the most production on deep passes, so he could put up points in chunks. Moore is a strong streamer this week.
Treylon Burks has returned to practice after missing the last two weeks with a concussion, but do not forget how great Burks was playing before he was injured. He scored over 17 fantasy points in his last two full games. He was also injured super early on in his game against the Eagles but managed to burn the best secondary in football for a 25-yard touchdown on his lone target that game. Burks is the best deep threat for the Titans and should lead them in targets. Yet, he remains available on a lot of league waiver wires. Take advantage and go out and get him.
Jahan Dotson has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games. He had 105 yards in his last game, which included a very impressive downfield catch. The best part? He has seen nine and six targets in his last two games. In his first seven games this season, he had topped five targets just once. He is a very skilled receiver who can win downfield, he just needs opportunities. And he is seeing more and more of those as he takes over from Curtis Samuel down the stretch. If you need a plug-and-play option off the waiver wire, you can do worse than the explosive Dotson.
Tight End Pivot Options for Fantasy Football
If TEs David Njoku and Hayden Hurst don’t play, you can pivot to…
Juwan Johnson returned last week with a team-high six targets, catching four of them for 67 yards and two touchdowns. He now has scored more than 12 fantasy points in four straight games. Since Week 7, he is averaging 14.6 fantasy PPG, which is elite for a tight end. The floor used to be low if he didn’t catch a touchdown but even that seems to be changing as he gets more consistent weekly volume. Start him with confidence.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has now seen at least five targets in four straight games. In each of the last three games, he has reached double-digit PPR points on just catches and yards alone. Add in a touchdown, and that really puts him over the top. Burks' return takes some shine away, but he is still very much in play as a pivot option.
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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