Snap Count and Usage Analysis from Week 1

September 16, 2021

Kev analyzes NFL snap counts and usage from Week 1 to find fantasy football risers and fallers. These RBs, WRs and TEs could be sleepers or may have busted.

NFL snaps are not the be-all-end-all for fantasy production but they paint a clear picture with necessary context. Every snap is an opportunity for a player to make his presence felt and if their snaps go up or down, you get an idea of what the team thinks of their skill-set. A running back can have all the rushing talent in the world but if he can't catch the ball or is useless in pass protection, their snaps will not reflect that talent.

Since we only have a one-week sample to go off of, this article will focus on players with surprising snap counts from Week 1 rather than risers/fallers as concurrent pieces will.

If you have any questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter @RotoSurgeon

Surprisingly High Snap Counts

RB Devin Singletary BUF (75%)

Bills RB Zack Moss was a healthy scratch prior to Sunday's game vs Pittsburgh which could indicate one of two things. Either Moss is still not 100% from offseason ankle surgery OR Devin Singletary has established himself as the lead back in Buffalo with a strong preseason and camp. Given that Moss played in the last two preseason games and was reportedly a healthy scratch in Week 1, my bet is the latter.

A 75% snap share is massive for a running back and was accompanied by 11 rushes and five targets.  Although Singletary failed to do much in the receiving game, his 72 yards on the ground against an elite defense is impressive. The Bills seldom ran the ball last season and that carried over into Week 1 but this was a loss. Maybe with a lead, they try to balance out their attack more than usual.

The next highest snap share was Matt Breida with 12% and that came with four touches. As long as Singletary continues to look good, this backfield is his alone.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (72%)

A lot of hubbub was made of the Chiefs' Jerick McKinnon acquisition this past offseason. With the loss of Le'Veon Bell and departure of Damien Williams beyond his opt-out, the backfield was presumed to be Clyde Edwards-Helaire's and his alone but McKinnon threw a wrench into that assumption for some.

However, what everyone worried about McKinnon didn't realize is that he has not accomplished much, if anything throughout his entire NFL career and spent a large chunk of it missing time due to lower body issues. Also, teams just need depth in general! CEH was not perfect as a rookie and disappointed a majority of those who drafted him but he was still the team's first-round pick who accrued 1,100 yards in 13 games. His touches were plentiful and there was a legitimate role in the passing game...he just didn't score touchdowns.

McKinnon only played four snaps and didn't touch the ball once. CEH had 17 touches out of 18 total that went to RBs. The Browns' defense is significantly improved with major offseason additions like Jadeveon Clowney and John Johnson III making this matchup tougher than it seemed on paper.

CEH is the workhorse and the only thing in his way is himself. His 72% share is the 3rd-highest snap% of his career.

WR Dyami Brown WAS (93%)

Despite Brown's lack of production, the sheer amount of snaps he played is impressive and something to monitor moving forward. Obviously, this is a product of Curtis Samuel's groin injury and IR placement. This may not be replicated when Samuel is active, however, there are legitimate questions as to when/if Samuel returns this season given that this injury has lingered for four months and limited him heavily.

Now, with a new QB in Taylor Heinecke, there may be some built-up rapport from the offseason where Heinecke and Brown practiced together. Heinecke, like Fitzpatrick, is not afraid to take deep shots which can only benefit Brown.

Brown is not a "must-add" WR in shallower leagues given the facilities of the offense but there will be weeks this season where his speed can get him in the range of high-end WRs.

Surprisingly Low Snap Counts

WR Brandon Aiyuk SF (47%)

This situation with Brandon Aiyuk is fascinating. He's dealt with a hamstring injury for the past few weeks and reportedly suffered a setback yet played nearly 50% of the snaps and returned punts in SF's win vs Detroit this past Sunday. Something seems fishy but the best bet is that he is still returning to form and the SF offense is so versatile that Aiyuk was not needed, especially with a 38-17 lead heading into the 4th Quarter.

Expect a larger role for Aiyuk moving forward but lower expectations on the season until he's 100%.

RB James Conner ARI (49%)

This is definitely concerning. Not solely because of the snaps but due to the Cardinals possessing a multiple score lead early in the game and still providing Chase Edmonds (58%) more snaps than Conner. James Conner was presumably taking on a lead role similar to Kenyan Drake last season where he acted as the grinder who took on a bulk of carries, some passing work, and all of the goal-line looks yet this usage suggests otherwise.

Conner did touch the ball the same number of times as Edmonds but if that's happening in a game with massive leads, what will happen when Arizona plays catch-up? Conner is hard to trust in a lineup until we have a clearer picture of his role.

TE Juwan Johnson NO (19%)

The production from Juwan Johnson in Week 1: incredible.

The snap count: yikes.

Is Johnson worth a look in deeper leagues? Sure. However, Adam Trautman played 82%. Johnson could absolutely see a spike in snaps in the coming weeks but he is unlikely to usurp Trautman unless an injury hits. Trautman is valuable as a receiver as well and will be hard to knock off. This situation will be in flux weekly and Johnson scoring two TD on three targets won't happen very often. He's best left on waivers and ignored.

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