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Should Patrick Mahomes be benched down the stretch in your fantasy leagues? Are the matchups so bad that we have to turn to someone else? Justin Carter examines Mahomes' 2021 season and gives the verdict.
Patrick Mahomes is (probably) the most talented quarterback in the NFL, but, uhh...things aren't really going the way they usually do with him this season.
Over the last six games, Mahomes has thrown zero or one touchdowns in five of those games, including not throwing a touchdown the last two weeks.
"Start your studs" and all that, but with how Mahomes has been playing, is there a situation where maybe you...shouldn't?
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Don't Bench Mahomes Against The Raiders
In Week 14, you should play Patrick Mahomes. His only good game over this six game span came against the Raiders, when he threw for 406 yards and five touchdowns.
And this game is at home, which...should be good, though Mahomes has weirdly struggled at home this year.
At home, Mahomes is completing 61 percent of his pass attempts, with 10 touchdowns and seven picks.
On the road, he's at 69.9 percent with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions.
Worth noting here when it comes to the raw numbers: Mahomes has played seven home games and five road games. So, better raw numbers on the road despite playing two fewer of those games, which is...
Weird. It's weird.
Anyway, that home/away split is concerning, but not so concerning that I would bench Mahomes against a team that he threw five touchdowns against just a few weeks ago. I mean, there's a chance he struggles in that game, but I'll start him for the upside. It's the games beyond the Raiders game that are in question, and we'll definitely get to that in a bit. But first, let's just talk a little about whatever the heck is going on with Patrick Mahomes.
What The Heck Is Going On With Patrick Mahomes
Yeah, what the heck is going on with Patrick Mahomes?
From Week 1 to Week 6, Mahomes never finished worse than QB9, and he had two finishes as QB2.
Since then, he finished as the overall QB1 in Week 10 against the Raiders...and then finished QB16 or worse in the other five games.
So, one finish as a top-12 quarterback over the last seven weeks after six finishes as a top-12 quarterback over his first six games.
Yikes.
What's going on?
Well, for one, Mahomes is throwing more picks, and it isn't necessarily his fault.
This pass hits Tyreek Hill in the hands and Tyreek Hill says "LOL I AM NOT CATCHING THIS BALL." So, it bounces off of his hands and into the hands of Patrick Surtain II.
I can't find the official source of the thing I am about to say, but according to my wife, who is such a huge Chiefs fan that she got a Chiefs Super Bowl tattoo back in 2020 and who follows all the various Chiefs Twitter accounts that post Chiefs stats, Mahomes has thrown seven interceptions that hit his receiver first.
Sure, you can make the argument that sometimes Mahomes is throwing the ball a little too hard on these passes, which is why they bounce off the receiver and land in a defender's hands. But still, it's worth noting that receiver drops have led to seven of the guy's 12 picks.
Not that I'm, like, saying Tyreek Hill is the reason Mahomes is struggling. He might be the reason for the interceptions sometimes, but the lack of touchdowns is an issue that can be blamed on the whole offense. Mahomes is missing throws.
Per PlayerProfiler, has struggled in two key areas, as he's 27th in deep ball completion percentage and 24th in pressured completion percentage. When he was at his peak, he didn't struggle in those area: in 2019, for instance,he was third on deep balls and fifth in pressured.
Mahomes deserves some blame for his struggles. Not all of it, but definitely some of it. He's still ninth in accuracy rating, but he's also 26th in catchable pass rate.
(One last "blame the receivers" point: Mahomes is 38th in receiver target separation. 38th. THIRTY EIGHTH. Not good!)
Okay, But Should We Bench Mahomes?
Patrick Mahomes is struggling, but should you actually consider benching him in the future?
I already told you why I wouldn't bench him against the Raiders. Beyond that, the Chiefs have upcoming games against the Chargers, Steelers, Bengals, and Broncos, though the Broncos game doesn't matter because you aren't playing a Week 18 fantasy championship game.
When it comes to fantasy points allowed against QBs, those teams rank:
Chargers: Sixth-fewest
Steelers: 15th-fewest
Bengals: 10th-fewest
The Chargers and Bengals games specifically are worrying. You should play Mahomes against the Steelers, but there might be some situations where you consider benching him. I wouldn't, but maybe you would.
It's the other two games that are a real concern.
If Mahomes doesn't look like himself against the Raiders, can you trust him against that Chargers defense? He had a top 12 finish against it in Week 3, but he did throw two picks in that game. Add in how poorly he's played since, and there's definitely reason to avoid him against the Chargers if you have another option that has both of the following things: a matchup against a bottom 10 pass defense and is consistently a top 15 quarterback.
That's basically the same situation you're in against the Bengals. If someone on the waiver wire has a great matchup and a great track record, you can play him.
Otherwise, benching Mahomes is risky. Yeah, he's not playing well, but he still has such a high ceiling. Unless you have a sure-fire QB1 play on your bench, you can't bench him.
By all means, play a solid QB1 play over him against the Chargers and Bengals if you're lucky enough to have one. But if you aren't, just roll with the Mahomie.
