RADIO
Kipp looks at five deeper fantasy baseball second base sleepers who are excellent values at their current ADPs. Consider any of these names later on in drafts.
The position of second base is not as deep in 2020 as it has been in previous seasons. There are some studs at the top such as Gleyber Torres and Ozzie Albies, but then there are several guys with question marks from the middle on. Finding a sleeper at the position may prove to be a difficult task.
This article will look to help fantasy players find depth at the position in later rounds. The players mentioned in this article have ADP's somewhere in the 275-375 range. These players are not meant to start on your roster from day one, but could provide solid depth for when your stars have rest days or if you suffer an injury at the position. It is also possible that a couple of these options breakout and could eventually start at second base for you.
Now that we have a foundation for the types of players we are looking at, let's take a look at some possible deep sleepers at second base.
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Cesar Hernandez, Cleveland Indians
Hernandez was signed by the Indians during the offseason to replace Jason Kipnis at second base and has an opportunity to produce at a solid rate in 2020.
In 2019, Hernandez had a nice season by slashing .279/.333/.408 with 14 HR, 71 RBI, 77 R, nine SB, and 45 BB in 612 at-bats across 161 games. He set a career-high for RBI and was one away from his career-high in HR. A large part of his value comes from his ability to hit for average, score runs, and steal bases. Although he only stole nine bases in '19, he averaged nearly 18 steals per season from 2015-2018. A glimpse into his hitting and speed metrics should give us an idea of what to expect in 2020.
Hernandez has a career batting average of .277, which is a direct result of his plate discipline metrics. His zone contact and chase contact are what allow him to have such success.
He also would have put up a higher average had he not had such a low BABIP of .313. A player that makes as much contact as Hernandez should have a higher BABIP, especially considering he only had a 15% strikeout rate in 2019.
Hernandez also provides value with his speed. His down year in steals in 2019 likely has to do with fewer attempts given the reduced BABIP and 6.7% walk rate, which was 3.2% below his career average. It is not due to lack of speed as noted by his 28.7 ft/sec sprint speed, which ranked him in the 88th percentile of the league. If he can boost that BABIP and walk rate to career norms in 2020, we should see an increase in batting average, as well as stolen bases.
Hernandez currently has an ADP of 279, which makes him an early 23rd-round pick. He should provide plenty of value as a backup second baseman to start the season and makes for a viable replacement for an injury or off-day. It's also feasible that he could find his way into starting lineups, but expectations would need to be tempered.
Shed Long, Seattle Mariners
Long got his first taste of the big leagues in 2019 where he slashed .263/.333/.454 with five HR. 15 RBI, 21 R, three SB, and 16 BB in just 152 at-bats across 42 games. The expectations are not extremely high for Long as he was only listed as the Mariners' No. 8 prospect just one year ago, but that does not mean he can't provide fantasy value for owners in 2020.
Long will likely provide the most value with his ability to get on base and score runs. Across parts of seven Minor League seasons, Long slashed .272/.351/.438 and averaged 84 runs per 162 games played. The on-base percentage is a combination of his bat-to-ball skills and his solid walk rate of 9.8% in the Minors. He followed this up in his short 2019 stint by walking at a rate of 9.5%. While the advanced data on Long is limited, he did manage to put up a below-average chase rate (24.4%), which should help improve upon his strikeout totals as he grows accustomed to the big leagues.
Long is projected hit leadoff for the Mariners, which will only help his value and opportunity to score runs in 2020. If he continues to get on base at a high clip, we could also see him improve upon his stolen base totals as well. Expectations should be slightly tempered though, as he only had a 68th percentile sprint speed, however, he did average over 17 stolen bases per 162 games played in the Minors.
He currently has an ADP of 372, which means he is not being drafted except in very deep leagues. Look to either take him with the last pick of your draft to stash or add him near the top of your watch list to keep a close eye on in the early going. He also makes for a solid selection in dynasty and keeper leagues.
Nick Solak, Texas Rangers
Solak is a 2016 second-round draft pick of the New York Yankees who was traded to the Rays in '18 and then moved to the Rangers in July last season. He has played a total of 33 games in the big leagues, all of which came with the Rangers last year, where he slashed .293/.393/.491 with five home runs, 17 RBI, 19 runs scored, and two stolen bases in just 116 at-bats.
In his first taste of the big leagues, Solak put up above-average power metrics in terms of barrel rate (9.2%), exit velocity (88.3 mph), and xSLG (.433). While these may not look overly impressive, they do fall in line with the type of player that he should be as he averaged 22 home runs per 162 games played in the Minors. He should also continue to add strength as he is just 25 years old. The power metrics should also certainly increase in the future. Aside from his developing power, Solak can hit the ball all over the yard, as noted by his spray chart.
Solak also put up a ridiculous .393 on-base percentage in 2019. While this will likely be difficult to sustain given his .354 BABIP, he does have a skill set here.
His average over 435 Minor League games was .294, which fell right in line with what he did at the Major League level last season. He also put up a very respectable walk rate of 11.1%, which was practically identical to his Minor League walk rate. While his strikeout rate did come in at 21.5%, it was not far off from his Minor League rate of 19.2%, and we could easily see this tick down as he grows accustomed to big-league pitching.
His on-base rate is also bolstered by his patience at the plate. The chart below shows this based on his above-average zone contact and below-average chase rate:
Lastly, Solak should be able to provide speed to the Rangers and fantasy owners alike. In the Minors, Solak averaged nearly 18 stolen bases per 162 games played. He also had a sprint speed of 28.7 ft/sec, which ranked him in the 89th percentile and 86th overall in 2019.
The biggest concern with Solak heading into the season will be his playing time, however, it appears as though the Rangers are taking measures to ensure that he gets at-bats by using him in centerfield during Spring Training.
Currently, Solak is being taken at an ADP of 295 and is being taken as the 35th second baseman off the board. This means he is being taken roughly in the 26th round of 12-team mixed leagues, which is very deep into the draft, if not entirely off the board. Look to grab him with your last pick and take a wait-and-see approach with him to start the season. He should also provide solid value in dynasty and keeper leagues.
Hanser Alberto, Baltimore Orioles
Alberto's first run at a regular role in the bigs came in 2019 and he turned that into a solid season by slashing .305/.329/.422 with 12 HR, 51 RBI, 62 R, and four SB. Alberto does not hit for a lot of pop and does not run a lot as noted by his 51st percentile sprint speed, but he should be able to provide fantasy owners with batting average skills, as well as the ability to score runs. He is also ridiculous vs. lefties, as noted by his split chart.
The reason he can hit for such a solid average is due to his ability to make contact with pitches in the zone, as well as when he chases. He was well above league-average in both of these categories last year.
These types of performances also did not result in an overinflated BABIP as he came in at .318. If this increases even slightly in 2020, we could be talking about a guy that scores 80 runs and hits somewhere around .320. It is also conceivable that he will improve vs. right-handed pitching, as someone with these types of bat skills typically does not hover around the .240 mark.
Alberto is also projected to hit leadoff for the Orioles in 2020, and while they are not exactly a stellar lineup, owning a leadoff hitter in any lineup certainly holds value.
Alberto currently has an ADP of 367, which means he most likely not being drafted in 12-team mixed leagues unless the bench is very deep. Given this information, you could either take him with your last pick and use him vs. lefties only in the early going given his ridiculous platoon splits, or you could add him to your watch list and see how he performs before making the move.
Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs
Happ is a bit of a post-hype sleeper as there were high expectations for him heading into the 2018 season, but he failed to deliver on those expectations. Now, he is largely considered an afterthought heading into 2020.
In limited time down the stretch in 2019, Happ slashed .264/.333/.564 with 11 HR, 30 RBI, 25 R, two SB, and 15 BB in just 140 at-bats across 58 games. The counting stats were rather impressive given the lack of at-bats and leaves reason to believe that he could bounce back in 2020. He derives most of his value from his ability to hit for power and drive in runs.
His power metrics were fairly impressive in 2019. He managed to put up a 13.7% barrel rate, 89.3 mph exit velocity, .526 xSLG, and 38.2% hard-hit rate. Each of these ranked above league average and are right in line with his career norms.
His career power metrics have directly translated to him hitting 50 HR over 315 total games. This averages out to just over 25 bombs per 162 games played, which is a solid rate. While the Cubs are likely to start him in centerfield in 2020, he should still have second base eligibility in a majority of leagues. He is projected to hit near the bottom of the Cubs' lineup, but in an offense that scored the 10th most runs in 2019, he should still have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.
Happ currently has an ADP of 308, which means he is being taken in the middle of the 25th round of deeper drafts. He should provide some solid value off of your bench and has shown flashes of the ability to start on fantasy rosters in the past. If you need depth at either outfield or second base, he makes for a solid choice with your final pick.
