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Russell Wilson is a 2023 fantasy football draft sleeper for NFL quarterbacks. Aidin Ebrahimi analyzes why Wilson is an undervalued fantasy football QB.
The fantasy football season is nearly upon us. As we're getting ready to draft our rosters, finding a good QB sleeper should be essential. Today we're looking at one of the most undervalued QBs this season, Russell Wilson.
Just a few years ago, calling Wilson a "sleeper" wouldn't make any sense. He was consistently a top-10 QB. From 2015 to 2022, Wilson's ADP was in the top 10 for QBs. From 2015 to 2018, and in 2020, he was in the top five. His value took a nosedive after his poor debut campaign in Denver, but all signs point to Wilson being rejuvenated in 2023.
With that in mind, this article will look at why Wilson could bounce back and be a solid pick for your fantasy team in 2023, especially considering his low ADP.
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Former QB1: The Golden Years
Let's start this article by giving some background on Wilson since many people have seemingly forgotten how elite he used to be. Wilson was an elite game manager for the "Legion of Boom" Seahawks. He was constantly throwing long bombs whenever the offense needed them and he was doing it effectively.
He was also a great rusher, as he ranks fourth all-time in quarterback rushing among QBs in their first three seasons. In those three seasons, he ran for 1,877 yards, which is more than Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Michael Vick. He also won an astounding 75% of his games, which is the highest all-time among QBs who played 47+ games in their first three seasons.
After winning his first Super Bowl in 2013, Wilson became a truly elite fantasy option in 2014. His passing and rushing contributed to him finishing as 2014's QB3. His seven-year stretch from the age of 27 to 33 is what truly catapulted Wilson into Hall of Fame status. Only eight QBs (Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning) threw for more passing yards from the age of 27 to 33.
In 2015, Wilson led the league in passer rating. After an off year in 2016, he bounced back in 2017, finishing the year as the overall QB1. After turning 30 in 2018, Wilson lowered his rushing attempts. However, he was still a lethal passer, especially in the red zone.
After years of being a pretty average red zone passer, Wilson was a top-five red zone passer in 2017. He then passed for 23 touchdowns in the red zone in 2018. In 2019, he continued his success, leading the league in red zone passing touchdowns. Despite a very poor offensive line, Wilson led the Seahawks to an 11-5 record and was easily considered the second-best player in the league that season.
Unfortunately for Wilson, Lamar Jackson won the 2019 MVP unanimously, preventing Wilson from getting an MVP vote. He had two more Pro Bowl seasons in 2020 and 2021. He finished this legendary seven-year stretch by winning 62% of his games, throwing for 27,109 yards, 220 touchdowns (31.4 a season), and just 61 picks (8.7 a season) with a 102.9 passer rating.
Why Everyone Lost Hope After 2022: Murphy's Law
"Anything that can go wrong will go wrong, and at the worst possible time." That is exactly what happened to Wilson during his disastrous debut campaign with the Denver Broncos. First off, the division. Going up against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders wasn't easy. Had Wilson stayed in Seattle, he would have only had to deal with the 49ers. Although, not many people would have seen the Rams and Cardinals' downfalls coming.
Wilson faced a plethora of problems in Denver. He had no help in the run game after Javonte Williams got hurt. For a QB that has relied heavily on the likes of Marshawn Lynch and Chris Carson, this was disastrous.
His lack of offensive weapons was apparent, too. Apart from Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, he didn't have any other standouts to throw to. His once-elite red zone passing became a weakness, as he just completed 48.9% of his red zone throws for just seven touchdowns. Former head coach Nathaniel Hackett was also terrible. We don't condone current head coach Sean Payton going off on Hackett like that, but everything he said was true.
This includes the comments on Hackett's poor clock management and the team's abysmal offensive line. This allowed Wilson to get sacked 55 times, the most in the league. Wilson also had two good games immediately after Hackett's dismissal. He almost beat the Chiefs and then beat the Chargers, suggesting that there's still some hope of him being a Pro Bowl-caliber player.
2023: The Road To Recovery
It all starts with slimming down, which is precisely what Sean Payton has asked Wilson to do this season. While Wilson has never been the best "pure pocket passer", he has always been an elite improviser. This is why he succeeded in Seattle despite their poor OL (sacked an average of 42.7 times a season as a Seahawk).
Wilson is now looking great according to Payton, who said he "is moving around well" and "is in really good shape." Wilson is certainly pleased with Payton, calling him "a great teacher of the game" and claiming that he and the rest of the players are "learning every day" from Payton. Less weight and more rushing attempts could only mean one thing: more rushing yards and more fantasy points next season.
Again, Russ has never played with a good OL and we don't expect that to change. However, the Broncos' new O-Line looks confident, which is way more than what we could say about last season's unit. Marvin Mims Jr. is a stud and has been Oklahoma's clear WR1 ever since CeeDee Lamb left. As the WR3, Mims can fill in the void left by Tim Patrick missing yet another season.
The other two starting WRs are slated for more improvement. Jeudy ended 2022 on fire, while Sutton has been studying Michael Thomas' film, and was compared to Thomas by Sean Payton. The Broncos have a pretty easy start to the 2023 season with games against the Raiders, Commanders, and Bears in their first four weeks. If they can get off to a hot start, momentum will be on their side.
Another thing is the Broncos' defense. They ranked third in yards per drive, seventh in points per drive, and seventh in total yards allowed. They allowed just 20 passing and 12 rushing touchdowns all year. This would have guaranteed any average offense a winning record and a trip to the playoffs. Instead, the Broncos had a historically awful offense last season, which prevented them from taking advantage of such a dominant defensive unit.
Apart from one inexplicable blowout loss to Baker Mayfield's Rams, the Broncos kept most of their losses close. This includes two very close losses against the eventual champion Chiefs, and one against the Chargers, Ravens, Colts, Jets, Titans, and, Wilson's old team, the Seahawks. If they won just four of those eight close losses, they would have gone to the playoffs and we wouldn't be having this discussion.
A leaner, more focused, and less arrogant Wilson, along with a more confident and healthier O-Line, the return of Javonte Williams, an improved receiving core, and the hiring of Sean Payton should ensure that something like this doesn't happen again. This team won't outgun others, which is why you shouldn't expect Wilson to throw 40 touchdowns, but they can take advantage of their opponent's lack of scoring.
Russell Wilson 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Contrary to popular belief, Wilson isn't "done for good" at the age of 35. He still has lots to offer and is more motivated than ever before. Sean Payton is a quarterback whisperer, as he has gotten the most out of many QBs including Drew Brees, Kerry Collins, Teddy Bridgewater, and Jameis Winston. In 2021, he led the Saints to a winning record despite three different QBs (Trevor Siemian, Winston, and Taysom Hill) throwing 130+ passes.
If he can win with them, he can win with Wilson. Wilson is currently the QB18 in fantasy and is being drafted around the 129th pick. You can win big with him if you can get him around his value. Wilson averaged 24.35 fantasy points in his final two games after Hackett's firing. Although that number is unsustainable, he can net you around 270-290 fantasy points this season if things go right.
Consider this: if you want to go after a third-tier QB, Wilson is a solid option. Deshaun Watson is the QB9 and there are just as many question marks surrounding him as Wilson. The same is true for players like Tua Tagovailoa (injury concerns) and Anthony Richardson, who might be an incredible runner but many doubt his passing ability. Overall, there's a big chance that last season was an outlier and Wilson is still an elite quarterback, capable of racking up fantasy points for your team.
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