Fantasy Football Yardage Risers- Running Back Regression Candidates

June 15, 2023

Rob Lorge identifies NFL running backs who could finish with more scrimmage yards in 2023 than they did in 2022. Which RBs should fantasy football managers potentially target in the later rounds?

Every year, fantasy football managers attempt to identify players whose price is not in-line with the value they'll provide. Of course, this can go both ways: players whose cost is too high relative to their provided value and others whose cost is too low. Any two fantasy managers may differ on a singular player, but this is the first edge any fantasy manager can gain in their season. To give you an advantage in your upcoming fantasy football drafts, we've compiled a list of players at each position that are likely to underperform and overperform in certain areas this season.

Below, you'll see the rest of the positive and negative regression candidates series.

• Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates – WR
• Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates – WR
• Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates – RB
• Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates – RB
• Positive & Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates - TE
• Negative Yardage Regression Candidates – WR
• Positive Yardage Regression Candidate – WR
• Positive Target Regression Candidates – WR
• Negative Target Regression Candidates – WR
• Positive & Negative Yardage Regression Candidates – TE
• Negative Yardage Regression Candidates – RB

In this article, we'll be focusing on four running backs who could have more scrimmage yards than they had last season. All four players can be drafted in the sixth round or later. They are barely valued as RB2s, as none of them are currently ranked higher than RB23. Additionally, the one with the fewest scrimmage yards among this quartet had 687 yards, making all four players good upside bets for the 2023 season. Let's discuss who they are and why you should be targeting them. To purchase one of our premium fantasy football packages, use "BOOM" for a 10% discount.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rachaad White was a third-round rookie last year who played behind veteran (and now free agent) Leonard Fournette. He finished his first season in the NFL with 129 carries for 481 rushing yards. He was heavily involved in the passing game, recording 58 targets, 50 receptions, and 290 yards. Collectively, White handled the ball 179 times and finished with 771 scrimmage yards. Both numbers should significantly increase in his second year.

Fournette remains a free agent, while Tampa Bay has only brought in running back Chase Edmonds. Edmonds was so disappointing in Miami last season that he was eventually benched and traded to the Denver Broncos. However, Denver opted to use Marlon Mack ahead of Edmonds before cutting him this offseason. So needless to say, Edmonds shouldn't be considered a threat.

Tampa Bay also employs Ke'Shawn Vaughn, who was the team's third-round pick in 2020. In three seasons, he has totaled 91 touches and 421 scrimmage yards. The only other name to watch is rookie Sean Tucker. He was an undrafted free agent following medical concerns that resulted in him not being invited to the combine.

That right there is the competition for Rachaad White. While most NFL teams have opted to use a running back-by-committee approach, fantasy managers could see White operating in a workhorse type of role due to the lack of available talent behind him.

Last season, White averaged 8.2 carries, 3.6 targets, and 3.1 receptions per game. He turned that workload into an average of 30.1 yards and 17.5 receiving yards per game. However, from Weeks 10–17 (Tampa rested most of their starters in Week 18), he averaged 12.4 carries, 4.7 targets, and 4.3 receptions per game.

White's touch total also increased by 5.4 per game. From Weeks 10–17, he averaged 16.7 touches per game. Extrapolated over 17 games, he would finish with 284 touches. In addition, his yardage also increased, averaging 49.9 rushing and 22.1 receiving yards per game. Extrapolate that over 17 games and his season total would amount to 1,224 yards. And that was with Leonard Fournette still on the roster.

Fantasy managers are understandably concerned about the change from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield. But for running backs in fantasy football, volume is king. There's nothing to indicate that the former Sun Devil won't be getting a ton of volume in 2023.

White entered the NFL with an exceptional collegiate receiving profile, notching 50 targets, 43 receptions, and 456 receiving yards in his final season at Arizona State. His college target share was in the 98th percentile. While the passing volume may decline with Brady no longer in Tampa Bay, White will likely handle a larger share of the running back receiving work with Fournette no longer in the picture.

Fantasy managers should expect White to handle between 13–16 touches on any given week with a strong likelihood that White will once again notch 50 receptions. He has 250-touch potential, and with his receiving profile, fantasy managers should value him as a solid RB2 in PPR scoring leagues. His current value is RB25 with an ADP of 80.0 on Underdog, roughly the middle of the seventh round. It's hard to see White not exceeding that volume with his projected touch total this season.

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs

Isiah Pacheco was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs in the seventh round last year after a pretty pedestrian college career at Rutgers. In fact, he never had a season with more than 170 carries or 730 rushing yards. Even though his collegiate career left a lot to be desired, that didn't stop fantasy managers from hyping up Pacheco.

At the time, Kansas City's backfield featured journeyman Jerick McKinnon and first-round bust Clyde Edwards-Helaire. It took Pacheco a little while to climb the ranks, but an injury to CEH certainly sped things up. Nevertheless, we saw two very different seasons from the rookie.

As shown above, fantasy managers saw two drastically different Pacheco experiences. In the first nine weeks of the season, the seventh-round rookie was hardly used, averaging only 5.9 touches and 26.2 scrimmage yards per game. However, things changed significantly over the final nine weeks of the season as he averaged 15.1 touches and 83.3 scrimmage yards per game.

Pacheco finished his rookie season with 170 carries and 830 rushing yards. While hardly used in the passing game, he still managed 14 targets, 13 receptions, and 130 yards. If we look at his final nine games of the season, Pacheco was on pace for 238 carries, 1,195 rushing yards, 21 targets, 19 receptions, and 221 receiving yards. Collectively, fantasy managers would be looking at 257 touches and 1,416 scrimmage yards.

Heading into the offseason, Pacheco was one name fantasy managers were keeping their eye on, believing that the Chiefs could look to add more talent to their running back group. Instead, he has a case to be this offseason's biggest fantasy football winner.

The Chiefs, not surprisingly, declined Edwards-Helaire's fifth-year option. They also chose not to draft a single running back, and the only free agent addition of note was bringing back veteran and pass-catching specialist, Jerick McKinnon. As a result, fantasy managers have every reason to believe Pacheco reprises the role we saw him in during the second half of last season.

Pacheco should see 14–16 touches per game, with almost all of those being carries. He'll provide virtually nothing in the passing game, but the touchdown equity as the short-yardage and goal-line back for the Chiefs is massive. He finished with four touchdowns over the final nine games, and it's easy to see him finishing with double-digit touchdowns in 2023. Pacheco is currently being drafted as the RB23 with an ADP of 74.8, which is in the early part of the seventh round.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

Before the 2022 draft, the Bills had come to terms with free agent J.D. McKissic, but he opted to return to the Washington Commanders. It then became apparent the Bills were looking for a running back who could potentially help them in the passing game. That was McKissic's strength and a weakness for incumbent starter Devin Singletary, coincidentally.

When McKissic fell through, the Bills targeted former Georgia running back James Cook in the second round. Cook didn't profile as a strong in-between-the-tackles kind of runner or someone who could handle a heavy workload. However, he did rank as one of the better pass-catching running backs in the 2022 draft. He showcased this as a rookie, averaging 1.70 yards per route run, which ranked eighth among running backs with at least 30 targets.

Despite displaying a knack for being very good at catching passes out of the backfield, the Bills opted to primarily use Devin Singletary due to his pass-blocking abilities. This was something Cook largely struggled with as a rookie. PFF gave the rookie a 26.9 pass-blocking grade, ranking third-worst among 95 qualifying players.

With the Bills committed to Singletary, who played on 67.1% of the team's snaps (10th-most in the NFL among running backs), Cook was utilized sparingly. He finished his rookie season with 89 carries for 507 yards, displaying elite efficiency despite a small sample size. He also received 32 targets and 21 receptions, finishing with 180 receiving yards. In total, he ended with 110 total touches and 687 scrimmage yards. He averaged 6.3 yards per touch, the third-most among running backs.

When Singletary signed with the Houston Texans, it opened the door to a more significant role for Cook entering his second season. The Bills opted to sign former Patriot Damien Harris, whose skill set doesn't overlap with Cook's.

After four seasons, Harris only has 51 targets, 40 receptions, and 281 yards. Fantasy managers should expect Harris to operate as the muscle in the Bills' backfield. He'll be the team's short-yardage and possibly goal-line back. James Cook, on the other hand, will primarily operate as the team's change of pace, third-down, and pass-catching back. Considering just how often Buffalo throws the ball, Cook should see plenty of playing time.

Over the last two years, the Bills have provided 101 and 91 targets, respectively, to their running backs. Fantasy managers should expect Cook to inherit a large portion of that volume. However, the Bills have rarely relied on the running game.

With Harris now in Buffalo, fantasy managers shouldn't expect Cook to see more than 7–10 carries per game. Still, it shouldn't be surprising if Cook's touches increase by 50–60 in his second season, while his yardage could increase by as much as 300 yards. If you're looking for an in-depth look into the new Buffalo backfield, you can find that here.

James Cook is currently being drafted as the RB30 with an ADP of 95.4, which is the bottom of the eighth round. Unless Buffalo shows a bigger commitment to the running game, it may be difficult for Cook to live up to that price tag. With Harris and quarterback Josh Allen on the roster, Cook is unlikely to score too many touchdowns, which will limit his upside.

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

What a tumultuous 2022 season for Cam Akers. He started the season in a timeshare with Darrell Henderson Jr., primarily operating as the RB2 in the Los Angeles backfield. However, when Henderson was surprisingly released, it seemed like the door had finally opened for Akers to get his career back on track following a torn Achilles injury in 2021.

Unfortunately, that did not come to pass. Akers requested a trade and found himself on the inactive list for two games during the player and team standoff. The Rams weren't able to find an adequate trade package for Akers before the trade deadline, forcing the RB and the team to reconcile for the remainder of the season. Eventually, head coach Sean McVay gave Akers a chance to start down the stretch. He ended up starting in Week 12 and appeared rejuvenated.

During that final seven-game stretch, Akers averaged almost half a yard over expected per carry, ranking the 11th-highest among running backs with at least 50 carries. He also averaged two and a half yards after contact per attempt, which was the third-highest. McVay leaned on Akers, giving him 60.5% of the team's running back carries, which was the seventh-highest over this period. He played on 67.2% of the team's snaps, the seventh-highest.

Akers was a true workhorse running back. His on-pace stats from those seven weeks over 17 games were 272 carries, 1,333 rushing yards, 29 targets, 27 receptions, and 240 receiving yards. Collectively, his per-game averages would've resulted in 299 total touches and 1,573 scrimmage yards. He finished 2022 with 201 total touches and 903 scrimmage yards.

Akers finished the season with four straight games of 100 or more scrimmage yards. The way he closed the season must have given the team confidence in him as their 2023 starter because they largely ignored the running back position this offseason.

The Rams added sixth-round rookie Zach Evans, but he has been the only addition to the team's backfield. The other running backs behind Akers on the depth chart include 2022 fifth-round pick Kyren Williams and 2022 undrafted free agent Ronnie Rivers. Based on how he played to end the season and how the Rams opted to use him, Akers could be a true workhorse running back in 2023.

He's currently being drafted as the RB24 with an ADP of 76.6, which requires a seventh-round pick. Unfortunately, there's been very little work for the team's running backs in the passing game. In 2022, the Rams finished 30th in running back targets with just 63. They were 31st in 2021 with 76 targets, 30th in 2020 with 71, and 32nd in 2019 with 61.

All this makes Akers much more appealing in standard and half-PPR scoring leagues. He's unlikely to provide much value in the passing game, which could create some weeks where he busts. Akers should be considered a solid RB2 due to the anticipated increase in volume with the return of quarterback Matthew Stafford and star receiver Cooper Kupp. At his current price, Cam Akers is someone who could provide a positive return.

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