RADIO
Dan Fornek identifies the top NFL teams to handcuff in fantasy football drafts based on their running back situations. These backup RBs are sleepers to consider.
One of the most crucial things a fantasy player can do is have the foresight to build a lineup that maximizes talent while also minimizing the risk of player injuries or holdouts. This process is even more important looking to the 2020 season with the added risk of COVID-19 sidelining players. My previous articles looked at the NFC and AFC team's backfield situations to determine how to use late draft picks in your fantasy drafts. This entry will focus on the five most important backfields to handcuff for 2020.
Aside from that, understanding the way coaches operate their backfields in today’s NFL is crucial to fantasy football success. The increasing level of talent at the running back position combined with teams' reluctance to pay NFL runners have made it extremely popular to employ split backfields and running back committees in 2020. Knowing which teams utilize a bell-cow running back (a player who handles a majority of the work in the backfield as a rusher and receiver) versus a committee approach (multiple players with defined workloads and roles) can be a massive advantage during a fantasy draft.
Below, you will find the top five teams (plus a few honorable mentions) that are worth handcuffing during the 2020 season. As a warning, you will not be seeing teams like Denver (Melvin Gordon III/Phillip Lindsay/Royce Freeman) or Cleveland (Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt) as they have shown a tendency to utilize a committee in the backfield in both the run and pass games. With that being said, here are the top five teams to handcuff for the upcoming season.
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5. Houston Texans
The Houston Texans used Carlos Hyde as their lead ball carrier in 2019. Hyde toted the ball 245 times (56% of the team’s carries) for 1,070 yards and six touchdowns. Hyde only saw 16 targets (three percent of the Texans' targets) as the team opted to utilize Duke Johnson Jr. in the passing game (62 targets, 11% of the team’s total). The Texans elected to let Hyde walk in free agency, instead trading for David Johnson to be their lead back.
David Johnson has struggled with injury and ineffectiveness in the past few seasons, which makes the Texans a team worth handcuffing in your fantasy drafts. Duke Johnson Jr. would be poised to see an increase in his carries given the uncertainty in the players behind him (Buddy Howell, Karan Higdon, and Scottie Phillips). Given Duke Johnson’s efficiency in the run game (4.4 yards per carry in his career), he would likely get the first crack at the backfield before the Texans attempted to bring in significant veteran help.
4. Tennessee Titans
The Titans ranked 10th in the NFL in rushing attempts in 2019 with 445 carries. Derrick Henry handled 68% of those carries (303) in just 15 games. Henry also had a minor role in the passing game, receiving 5% of the team’s targets (24) on the season. The Titans have constructed their offensive identity around running the ball, as averaging 33.3 rushing attempts per game the past three seasons (third overall behind Baltimore and San Francisco). The Titans let their pass-catching back, Dion Lewis, walk in free agency and drafted Darrynton Evans in the third round of the 2020 NFL draft.
The massive workload entrusted to Henry earn the Titans a spot on this list, but three main factors keep them outside the top three. For one, the Titans modestly use their backs in the passing game (just 12% of the team’s targets in 2020). Secondly, if anything were to happen to Henry, the team would likely bring in a veteran running back in free agency to keep the workload on Evans light. Finally, Derrick Henry has only missed two games in his four-year career, giving him a level of durability that isn't seen much in today's NFL.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Coming in as the third-best backfield to handcuff, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have historically utilized a bell-cow running back for the entirety of Mike Tomlin’s coaching career, although some of that can be attributed to having a running back like Le’Veon Bell years ago. In the year Bell held out (2018), James Conner continued the tradition, carrying the ball 215 times (62% of the team’s carries) and receiving 71 targets (10%) in 13 games. During the first eight games of 2019, Conner had 97 carries (60%) and 31 targets (13%), setting him on the bell cow pace before a myriad of injuries knocked him out of commission.
Those injuries are the reason why the Steelers find themselves on this list. In his career, Conner has missed 11 of a possible 48 games. Throughout his career, Conner has suffered several lower-body injuries (knee and ankle sprains, quadriceps injuries) as well as an AC joint sprain that kept him out of five games in 2019. The Steelers’ preference for a lead running back mixed with Conner’s reoccurring soft tissue injuries makes the Steelers’ backfield one to handcuff in 2020.
According to the NFFC’s most recent ADP data, rookie Anthony McFarland Jr. is currently being drafted around pick 182 (RB56) while Benny Snell Jr. is being selected around pick 252 (RB70). In reality, McFarland will likely have a consistent receiving role throughout the season, and while he would get an uptick in carries given his explosiveness, Snell Jr. would be the running back to absorb most of Conner’s carries in an injury situation. During the week's Conner was unavailable in 2019, Snell Jr. averaged 17 carries a game but was a non-factor as a receiver.
2. Dallas Cowboys
When you get to the top two teams, it is a 1A and 1B situation. At this moment, the Cowboys are relegated to the 1B spot because there is no threat of Ezekiel Elliott holding out thanks to his new contract. In 2019, Zeke carried the ball 304 times (67%) while also seeing 71 targets (11%) in the Dallas offense. He is also two seasons removed from a 95-target season with the same 300 carry threshold.
By all accounts, he has been the definition of a true workhorse running back in the modern NFL. Beyond that, Elliott has played in at least 15 games in three of his four seasons, the one exception being the year he played only ten games because he was serving a six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy.
Dallas also has a back-up running back in Tony Pollard that can carve out a role in the offense but would skyrocket into a weekly top-10 play if anything were to happen to Ezekiel Elliott in 2020. Pollard carried the ball 86 times in 2019 (19% of the team’s carries) for 455 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught 15 of 20 targets for 107 yards and an additional score. The Cowboys didn’t add any significant competition to their backfield for the 2020 season, giving Pollard a front-row seat to a massive workload in case of an injury. Pollard’s ADP is currently RB48 around the 10th or 11th round in the NFFC.
Pollard’s ADP is justified for a variety of reasons. For one, we don’t fully know the impact of Ezekiel Elliott’s COVID-19 diagnosis from earlier in the offseason. While he has had plenty of time to recover, it will be interesting to see if he is affected by his inability to workout or any related lung issues or fatigue.
Beyond that, the Cowboys have a new head coach in 2020, Mike McCarthy. Kellen Moore, the Cowboy’s offensive coordinator in 2019, will continue to call plays but will gather input from McCarthy throughout games. McCarthy utilized split backfields in his final seasons in Green Bay, specifically between Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones.
Neither of those players is as talented as Ezekiel Elliott, but that fact, combined with Pollard’s effectiveness as a runner in 2019, justify his 10th round ADP and make him a definite target if you choose Ezekiel Elliott in the first round of your fantasy draft.
1. Minnesota Vikings
That leads us to the top team to handcuff for the 2020 season, the Minnesota Vikings. Dalvin Cook took charge of the Vikings’ backfield during the 2019 season, carrying the ball 250 times (52% of team’s carries) for 1,135 yards and 13 touchdowns. He also had 53 catches on 63 targets (13% of the team’s targets) for 519 yards. During the 2020 offseason, Dalvin Cook stated his intent to hold out until he got a new contract, which immediately vaults back-up Alexander Mattison into a starting role until his contract situation is resolved.
Mattison, the Vikings third-round pick of the 2019 NFL draft, carved out a role in 13 games for the Vikings last season. He carried the ball 100 times for 462 yards and a touchdown while adding ten receptions (12 targets) and 82 yards through the air. A poorly timed sprained ankle robbed fantasy players of seeing Mattison in the lead back role the final three weeks of the season. Mattison will be the lead back if Dalvin Cook chooses to hold out. He is currently being drafted as RB40 in the NFFC, somewhere in the eighth or ninth round.
Even if Dalvin Cook ends his holdout before the season starts, he still carries considerable risk heading into the 2020 season. Cook has only played in 29 of 48 possible games in his career due to a myriad of injuries. Cook missed 12 games his rookie year due to a torn ACL, five games in 2018 thanks to a hamstring strain, and missed two games when he suffered sprains to both his right and left shoulders in 2019. The combination of these factors, along with Mattison’s role in 2019, makes the Vikings the top backfield to handcuff in your 2020 fantasy draft.
Honorable Mentions
Jacksonville Jaguars
Leonard Fournette was a true bell cow in 2020, accounting for 265 carries (68% of the Jaguars’ total) and 100 targets (16% of the team’s total). Fournette will likely reprise the bell cow role again in 2020, so why is Jacksonville not higher on the list? A new coaching staff and the addition of Chris Thompson likely indicates a dip in passing work for Fournette. Beyond that, there is uncertainty over how many running backs would take over his work. Ryquell Armstead figures to be the top option, but Devine Ozigbo or UDFA James Robinson could also factor in. The uncertainty gets the Jaguars backfield an honorable mention.
New York Jets
The Jets are in a similar boat as the Jaguars. Le’Veon Bell handled roughly 64% of the team’s carries (245) and 15% of the targets (78) during 15 games in 2019. Bell is very likely to reprise that role for the 2020 season, but the additions of Frank Gore and Lamical Perine through free agency and the draft complicate the ability to handcuff this backfield. Add that to a recent quote from head coach Adam Gase stating a plan on utilizing Frank Gore heavily during different weeks of the season, and it is far more likely this becomes a split backfield as the year goes on.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon handled a whopping 72% of the Bengals’ carries during the 2019 season (278) while also receiving seven percent of the team’s targets (45). There are a few reasons why the Bengals just missed the top handcuffs heading into the 2020 season. For one, Mixon has proven to be relatively healthy thus far in his career, playing at least 14 games per season each year. The presence of Giovani Bernard also limits Mixon’s receiving upside, keeping him from getting a higher percentage of the team’s passing totals.
Finally, if anything happened to Mixon, it is unclear how the Bengals would choose to utilize their backfield. One of their second year running backs (Trayveon Williams or Rodney Anderson) would figure to see a bulk of the rushing attempts while Bernard would see an uptick in the passing game. Regardless, that uncertainty is enough to keep the Bengals on the outside looking in at the other top five options in 2020.
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