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Dan Fornek analyzes the best fits for three NFL running backs who will be hitting free agency soon, including Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, and Kenyan Drake.
We have finally cleared the franchise tag window and now can start dreaming of landing spots for the running backs in this class. This free agent and draft class are weirdly parallel, with a tier of top-level talents surrounded by guys who need good situations (or good luck) to thrive for their NFL teams. None of the running backs were franchised this year, and while that doesn’t stop them from resigning with their old teams, it certainly opens us up to many interesting possibilities.
Unlike wide receivers, teams have become very wary of paying average running backs exorbitant prices because of the toll the position takes on players through their first few years in the league. Ultimately, there are three players in this class, Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, and Kenyan Drake, who have the size, skill set, and background to handle a potential three-down role for their new teams. There are other solid options in the class (Duke Johnson Jr., James Conner, James White) that are either high injury risks or complimentary backs that I will not be talking about here.
Like I did with my wide receiver articles (you can find Part 1 here and Part 2 here), today I will be looking at the top-three running backs and their ideal landing spots from both an NFL and fantasy perspective. It will be interesting to see how teams value these players given the fact that the running back position has never been more expendable as teams shift their focus to more analytical-based approaches in the league today.
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Aaron Jones
The headliner of this free-agent running back class, Aaron Jones, enters his first chance at free agency at the prime age of 26 years old. In his last two seasons in Green Bay, Jones has been an ultra-efficient option as the lead back in the Packers’ offensive scheme. Jones has started 30 of the last 32 games for Green Bay, carrying the ball 437 times for 2,188 yards (5 yards per carry) and 25 touchdowns. He has also been the Packers' second-leading receiver the past two seasons (that may be more of an indictment of Green Bay’s receiving corps than him), catching 96 of his 131 passes for an additional 829 yards and five scores.
Jones will command a strong salary (reports are out there of him targeting $15 million a year) and has shown to be a reliable option. Paying running backs is always a risky proposition, but Jones seems to be the only veteran running back in this class worthy of it.
Best Potential Free Agent Fits
New York Jets
The Jets are lacking top-end talent on offense and have a cast of mediocre players at running back with a quarterback who needs to prove he is the guy before his fifth-year option. Going after the top players seems like an absolute Jets move, although GM Joe Douglas has shown that he wants to build the right way in his early tenure.
Jones would offer a legitimate two-way threat for the Jets out of the backfield and would easily eclipse all the other running backs on the roster the second he puts pen to paper. The Jets have a relatively young and solid core on their offensive line and would easily be able to replicate the workloads Green Bay has given Jones the past two seasons to try and take the pressure off Sam Darnold to help him develop. Jones would probably take a decent hit in terms of his long-term fantasy value, but that would make him more of a steal heading into the 2021 season if you believe in his talent.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Of the terrible teams in 2020, Jacksonville would represent an interesting dynamic for the free-agent running back. For one, they will likely be led next season by the presumed #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. Combined with D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault Jr., the Jacksonville passing game would likely garner more respect than the Minshew/Glennon/Luton trio from last season and open up more solid rush lanes. First-year NFL head coach Urban Meyer has also been known as an offensive innovator and would probably like to use Jacksonville’s over $70 million to upgrade as many positions as possible.
This move seems unlikely to happen given the out-of-nowhere success of UDFA running back James Robinson in 2020. Jones to the Jaguars would allow both players to stay fresh (similar to how Jones was used in Green Bay with Jamaal Williams) and keep both rested and highly explosive down the stretch of games. There are plenty of other moves Jacksonville needs to make to upgrade on defense and along the offensive line, so Jones may not be a priority.
This wouldn’t be a great fantasy situation for players who roster Jones or Robinson, with each likely cannibalizing the other's typical workload. But if Jones' free agency extends deep enough into the offseason, Jacksonville could easily bring him in on a short-term deal to try and maximize his efficiency.
Arizona Cardinals
These next two options would be more for fun than anything. Arizona has an opening in their backfield thanks to the free-agent departure of Kenyan Drake. Jones would become the 1A and allow Arizona to keep utilizing Chase Edmonds in a variety of roles in the backfield and as a slot receiver. Kyler Murray factors heavily in the run game (133 carries in 16 games in 2020), but he struggled after a shoulder injury which could lead Kliff Kingsbury to find ways to keep him protected in the pocket.
In Arizona, Jones could very easily step into the Drake role and assume a majority of the 239 carries he accrued in 13 games. Drake wasn’t prominently featured in the passing game, but Jones has shown the ability to be a factor there as well. Jones would have ample running room as defenses struggled to account for multiple weapons like DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Chase Edmonds, and Kyler Murray (as a thrower and rusher). This would be a very fun pairing and plausible considering the Cardinals have over $20 million in cap space at the moment.
Jones’ fantasy value would go nuclear if he ended up in an offense that was as high paced as Arizona’s.
Seattle Seahawks
Aaron Jones going to the Seattle Seahawks would be a match made in heaven. Seattle is so committed to the run that they are seemingly cool with ticking off their franchise quarterback to the point of him potentially moving teams. In the last three seasons, Seattle has called a run on an average of 49% of their plays despite having Russell Wilson paired with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Jones would have the ability to run the ball as Seattle’s primary running back while getting spelled by Rashaad Penny as he makes his return from a 2019 ACL injury that cost him his season in 2020.
In Seattle, Jones would at least have the same floor in terms of his opportunities in the running and passing game with a chance to take his workload to the next level. Seattle doesn’t have the strongest offensive line, but they have been able to navigate it thanks to Russell Wilson’s ability to execute the quick passing game and ability to improvise.
Chris Carson
Chris Carson’s tenure in Seattle to this point could be described as a rollercoaster ride. When healthy, Carson showed both the ability to carry the ball (at least 245 carries and 4.6 yards per attempt in seasons he played 14 games) and the receiving chops to garner respect in the passing game (94 receptions total his last three seasons combined). However, Carson has missed at least one game in each of his four seasons in the NFL due to a combination of injuries over the years. Carson can be the lead back of a backfield as long as he can solve his availability issues.
As he looks to free agency, Carson will be an intriguing option for teams looking for someone that can produce as much on the ground as Aaron Jones but for a fraction of the cost. If a team is willing to risk their cap space on somebody with a questionable injury history, then Carson could have solid fantasy production for several seasons.
Potential Free Agent Fits
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle opted not to use the franchise tag on Carson, but that doesn’t necessarily take them out of the running for his services. The tag would have cost around $8 million for the 2021 season, which would have been tough to accept for a one-year deal on a team that has several offseason holes to fill.
If the Seahawks and Carson can agree on a contract that would feature less of a cap hit and some more guaranteed money, it would be a match made in heaven. Seattle is familiar with Carson’s injury history but also has shown no issues letting him handle the bulk of the carries when he is healthy. Seattle would also have Rashaad Penny, DeeJay Dallas, and Travis Homer available in the backfield to help alleviate his workload and hope to get him through a majority of the season. If Carson returns to Seattle, he retains his place as a solid RB2 given his workload and role in the passing game.
Buffalo Bills
Despite investing third-round picks the past two seasons into the running back position, Buffalo is still in dire need of more production out of the backfield. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss combined to carry the ball 268 times for 1,168 yards and six touchdowns in 2020 while adding 52 receptions (on 68 targets) for 364 yards and a receiving score. Both players struggled to take control of the backfield and consistently produce last season. Carson would provide a needed back with the size, speed, and ability to produce a three-down role that neither Moss nor Singletary seem to possess. Carson would be far more affordable than Aaron Jones but would be able to provide solid production to a team with a meager rushing attack.
From a fantasy perspective, there would be considerable risk involved with bringing Carson aboard to Buffalo. The situation could likely evolve into a three-headed rushing attack that is also being bottlenecked by Josh Allen’s rushing ability at quarterback. Allen also factors heavily rushing inside the five-yard line, which would make touchdowns difficult for all three players. This fit makes way more sense in actual NFL football but would create a nightmare situation in fantasy leagues for 2021.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh has a vacancy available at their lead running back position given their decision to let James Conner enter free agency. Like Carson, Conner has struggled with his health during his NFL career and has productive when available. Conner has broken the 14 games played mark once in his career, and that was his rookie season where he was just used to occasionally spell Le’Veon Bell. In his last three seasons, Conner averaged 166.67 carries per season despite his limited availability while also collecting an 8-10% target share despite the team having perimeter weapons like JuJu-Smith Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and Antonio Brown over the span of his career.
During Conner’s absence, Benny Snell Jr. failed to have a significant impact and fourth-round rookie Anthony McFarland Jr. struggled to see much of the field outside of some change-of-pace work. If Carson is added in Pittsburgh, he will be a more durable version of Conner and maintain his RB2 upside.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are another team in need of running back help to try and help Tua Tagovailoa develop in his second season. Miami utilized a rotating cast of running backs last season, with Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed taking the bulk of the work. These two combined to carry the ball 217 times for 903 yards and six touchdowns while adding 52 receptions, 449 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns. Miami has a young, ascending offensive line and a second-year quarterback who didn’t push the ball down the field much his first season. If Carson were to land there, he would likely take a lead role in the backfield and maintain most of the value he has shown flashes of throughout his career.
Kenyan Drake
Kenyan Drake exploded out of the gates when he was traded to the Cardinals halfway through the 2019 season. In just eight games in Arizona, Drake carried the ball 123 times for 643 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 28 receptions on 35 targets for an additional 171 yards. Drake looked explosive and many fantasy analysts (including yours truly) were willing to gamble that he could carry that momentum into 2020. But he didn’t.
Drake was a popular second-round pick in fantasy football drafts, but he delivered more of a solid fantasy floor instead of an explosive fantasy ceiling. In 15 games, Drake averaged 12.8 fantasy points per game to get him to an RB16 finish. His yards per carry dropped nearly 1.5 yards in Arizona from 2019 to 2020 (5.2 to 3.9) and he became more of a weekly volume play than someone you expected big games out of. Drake carried the ball 239 times for 955 yards and 10 touchdowns while adding 25 receptions for 137 yards and looked to be the less explosive player in the offense when compared to Chase Edmonds.
Heading into free agency, Drake will be one of the more affordable running back options that has shown he can produce explosive upside. Drake is a year older than Carson and Aaron Jones, but he doesn’t have the wear and tear as many of the other backs because of his split workloads throughout college and the NFL. Drake will likely be appealing to teams that are a bit more cash-strapped or pick later in the draft where they may not be able to get one of the premier backs in this class.
Atlanta Falcons
The Todd Gurley experiment in Atlanta won’t last more than one season and ended with a resounding thud. After a hot start to the season, Gurley finished 15 games with 195 carries for 678 yards and nine touchdowns while losing touches to Ito Smith and Brian Hill down the stretch. Atlanta has already come out and said they won’t be trying to let the former top fantasy option reclaim his form with them next season. Beyond that, the Falcons have plenty of holes on the defensive side of the ball and need to consider a successor to Matt Ryan in this year's NFL Draft.
Drake would be an affordable running back option that can step in and take lead back work at a lesser price. If Drake goes to Atlanta, he will gain serious momentum again in the fantasy community for better or worse given some of the fantasy production Atlanta RBs have had over the years. Drake would remain firmly in the RB2 window but could put together some solid games behind an offensive line that features numerous former first-round picks.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is in a position to add a running back with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, their top two running backs the last four seasons, testing the free-agent market. Green Bay is in a position where they are trying to win now and may not want to trust second-year running back A.J. Dillon with the entirety of the workload. If Green Bay opts to let Williams and Jones walk without an offer, Drake would offer a nice change of pace from Dillon and the receiving chops to make an impact on third-down plays. Drake would likely see his carries limited considering Dillon’s rare combination of size and speed, but a high-octane passing offense would be able to use the most of his gifts and keep him in consideration for an early-to-mid round pick in next season’s fantasy drafts.
Seattle Seahawks
It’s already been said numerous times before in this article, but it is clear that Seattle wants to move their offense through the run at the potential expense of Russell Wilson. Seattle has over $21 million heading into free agency but needs to upgrade on defense and along the offensive line if they want to continue to compete in the NFC. Drake would offer a low-cost option in the backfield that could split touches with Rashaad Penny, DeeJay Dallas, and Travis Homer and allow Pete Carroll to maximize the talents of all his backfield weapons. Drake would do well in an offense that can utilize the hot hand while also conserving carries, making this a very reasonable landing spot.
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