RADIO
AFC Contender #1: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs once again found themselves in a close one last week thanks to a game that went the full 60 minutes within a one-possession margin. The eventual 27-19 victory boiled down to timely defense, Xavier Worthy’s emergence as a more reliable/versatile weapon, and Kareem Hunt outrunning Isiah Pacheco.
Since returning from a broken leg, Pacheco has averaged 3.65 yards per carry but has fallen under 3.0 YPC in each of their last two games. They’ll need their best form for a Christmas road game in Pittsburgh, where a win could seal the No. 1 seed and ensure rest in Week 18. Patrick Mahomes’ ankle would likely appreciate that.
AFC Contender #2: Buffalo Bills
Buffalo leaned on its ground game and defense to secure a 24-21 victory over New England on Sunday as Josh Allen dealt with a right arm injury. The signal-caller already has a broken left hand so ideally he can heal up some down the stretch. But they couldn’t take a snap off here as the Pats held a 14-7 halftime lead and kept things close until a backward pass gone wrong led to a BUF fumble recovery in the end zone for six.
Assuming a Week 17 win against the Jets and a Kansas City win over Pittsburgh, the Bills may rest starters in Week 18 with the No. 2 seed on lock. If KC loses then the No. 1 seed would be up for grabs and the NFL would likely schedule KC and BUF to play in concurrent games.
AFC Contender #3: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens did not fall into Pittsburgh’s defensive trap as they did in their first meeting of the year. Baltimore pulled away with a hat trick of Lamar Jackson touchdowns as Derrick Henry ran wild for nearly 200 total yards on the day. Justin Tucker hit both field goals and nailed all four extra points. The defense got home for three sacks while the team incurred just two penalties.
This is the grit they’ve needed to show against their rivals. They must carry this momentum over into a potential playoff preview against Houston next week. If Baltimore wins out and Pittsburgh drops a game then the Ravens will own the AFC North and at least one home playoff tilt against a team like the Chargers.
AFC Contender #4: Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh held Baltimore’s offense down in their first meeting of the year but could not replicate that effort in the rematch. Neither team passed for more than 200 yards but Baltimore nearly doubled Pittsburgh’s rushing output as Derrick Henry rolled with 162 yards.
The Steelers kept things close through the first half and tied things at 17 with five minutes left in the third quarter before three straight Baltimore scoring drives iced the game. With identical overall and divisional records and a head-to-head split, Pittsburgh still controls the AFC North thanks to a better record against common opponents.
But the Steelers must beat both Kansas City and Cincinnati in the final two weeks to clinch it. At least they’re both at home, but nothing comes easy in the NFL. Can they bring the division home?
AFC Contender #5: Houston Texans
Houston had already clinched the AFC South entering Week 16 so losing 27-19 to the Chiefs is not devastating on paper, but losing Tank Dell to a serious knee injury cuts deeper. The Texans already had to absorb a torn ACL for Stefon Diggs so now it is Nico Collins, Joe Mixon, Dalton Schultz, some depth, and a Diontae Johnson waiver claim moving forward.
C.J. Stroud has not played well enough to instill confidence on his own, so the defense will have to step up down the stretch. They will likely end as the No. 4 seed and host Baltimore or Pittsburgh, which will require much of Houston. Can they prove themselves as true contenders with a statement win over Baltimore this week?
AFC Contender #6: Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers secured a critical victory over the Broncos on Thursday night after dropping two straight and three of their last four. The 34-27 win gives them the seasonal sweep over Denver, which is important with both teams at 9-6 in the final two playoff spots.
The Chargers must do their job over the next two weeks against the Patriots and Raiders, two struggling squads, to further settle into the No. 6 seed. It’s possible that they move up into the No. 5 spot with wins and Pittsburgh dropping their final two against the Chiefs and Bengals. Can the Chargers bring consistent play and a reliable defense into the playoffs?
AFC Contender #7: Denver Broncos
Denver suddenly finds their playoff spot in jeopardy thanks to a pair of rough matchups to end the year on the heels of a loss to the Chargers last Thursday. The Broncos are at 9-6 with a 76% chance of making the playoffs, per NFL Next Gen Stats, but they face Joe Burrow in Cincinnati (who are still mathematically able to jump into Denver’s No. 7 seed) next before a Week 18 date with the Chiefs.
They’ll hope KC can lock up the No. 1 seed with a Week 17 win in the hopes of facing backups. Indianapolis and Miami can also finish at 9-8 and threaten Denver’s spot. Bo Nix has been increasingly inconsistent and must play beyond his years as a rookie to clinch Denver’s first playoff berth since their Super Bowl run in 2015.
AFC Contender #8: Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor ran like a madman fueled by last week’s ugly fumble, logging 218 yards and three TDs on 29 carries before the final whistle. The last of his hat trick boosted the Colts to a 38-7 lead, which they eventually let whittle down to 38-30 with three minutes left.
They would hold on but the defense could only do so much with Anthony Richardson unable to sustain drives that salted away the clock. Richardson attempted just 11 passes on the day and still threw an interception, though he rushed for 70 yards and a score.
They now get a pair of “soft” matchups against the Giants and Jaguars to end the year. Couple that with Denver losing both of their final matchups and Indy would steal the final playoff spot. But Richardson or the offensive scheme around him must improve for them to get anywhere in the postseason.
AFC Contender #9: Miami Dolphins
Clinging to playoff aspirations, Miami put away an already-eliminated San Francisco team 29-17 thanks to a monstrous game from De’Von Achane. The running back led the team in both rushing (120 yards, TD) and receiving (six catches for 70 yards). Jason Sanders also hit four field goals, including one from 54 yards. One always feels better with a kicker in form.
The Dolphins must beat the Browns and Jets in their final two weeks while needing Denver to lose out, as well as one loss by the Colts to either the Giants or Jaguars. The latter leg of their parlay feels most unlikely, but they’ll hope those teams play well for pride.
AFC Contender #10: Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow continues to pull the Bengals forward as he threw for three scores against a tough Cleveland defense on Sunday. Cincy’s defense got a confidence boost against an overmatched Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who threw two interceptions and took five sacks.
The Bengals must beat Denver and Pittsburgh in their final two games and then get some help from their enemies. The Broncos must also lose in Week 18 to Kansas City, who may be resting starters.
Indianapolis must also drop one of their games against the Giants or Jaguars, while Miami must lose to either the Browns or Jets. It’s a steep climb but not impossible, with NFL Next Gen giving them a 7% chance of making it.
NFC Contender #1: Detroit Lions
Despite its many injuries, Detroit easily topped the Bears by a score of 34-17 in Week 16. Jared Goff threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns, including a troll trick play where he faked a fumble before popping a TD to Sam LaPorta. Jahmyr Gibbs was able to absorb David Montgomery’s workload, rushing for 109 yards and a score on 23 totes.
Unfortunately for them, Minnesota pulled out a comeback win against Seattle and sits at an identical 13-2 moving forward. It’s looking more and more like that Week 18 game between the two will determine the NFC North, with one team getting the No. 1 seed and the other No. 5 without home playoff games.
NFC Contender #2: Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia lost Jalen Hurts to an early concussion and couldn’t hold onto a late lead over Washington, who stormed to a 36-33 comeback win with 22 fourth-quarter points. The Eagles only scored four field goals beyond the first quarter as Kenny Pickett struggled to complete drives.
Saquon Barkley got another 150 yards in the loss and is 268 yards away from Eric Dickerson’s single-season record, but all eyes will be on Hurts’ progression through the concussion protocol. Losing to Washington technically keeps the NFC East in jeopardy, though a playoff berth is clinched regardless.
Philly only has to beat one of the Cowboys or Giants in the final weeks to snag the division, which should result in the No. 2 seed regardless of final record.
NFC Contender #3: Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota led for much of Sunday’s contest against the Seahawks before an AJ Barner touchdown with 4:21 on the clock in the fourth quarter gave Seattle a 24-20 lead. Sam Darnold would quickly mount a rebound drive that culminated in a 39-yard TD strike to Justin Jefferson for a lead the Vikes would not relinquish.
They’ve now won eight consecutive games and remain tied with the Lions at 13-2, but things are far from settled. They’ll now host a Packers team in a rematch of that 31-29 tilt in late September before a potential AFC North-deciding game against the Lions at Detroit in Week 18. Buckle up, Vikings fans!
NFC Contender #4: Green Bay Packers
Green Bay made easy work of an embattled Saints team on Monday night and now must prepare for a Lambeau showdown with the 13-2 Vikings on a short week. Beating Minnesota gives Green Bay a chance at leapfrogging them for the No. 5 seed if Minny loses its Week 18 game at Detroit.
But a loss and Washington winning out could result in a slip to the No. 7 seed, so don’t go thinking they’re playing with house money for a better slot. Let’s see if the Packers can get a much-needed confidence win against a top NFC contender and ruin a rival’s chance at the division crown.
NFC Contender #5: Los Angeles Rams
One week after poor weather limited offenses in a 12-6 victory over San Francisco, the Rams eked out another low-scoring affair in a 19-9 win over the Jets. The Rams trailed 9-6 going into the fourth quarter, where their first three drives of the period led to points.
It’s great to see the defense holding this strong but the offense must revert to the form that scored over 40 points against the Bills in Week 14. They’ll end the year with home games against the Cardinals and Seahawks. A win against the Cardinals alongside a Seattle loss to Chicago would clinch a playoff berth, but much could hinge on Week 18, where a Rams loss could throw the division to the strength-of-victory tiebreak.
The Rams have the current edge there but it’s far from secure. They’ll hope to lock things up and seal the division with two strong victories for the No. 3 or 4 seed.
NFC Contender #6: Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta made the right decision turning to Michael Penix Jr. for a clear win over the Giants and then got the help it needed with Tampa Bay losing on Sunday night. The Falcons are back in control of the NFC South with remaining games at Washington and against Carolina.
One can’t look past either with how Jayden Daniels and Bryce Young have been playing, but Penix looks more than capable of putting up a fight. The rookie also faced down 14 pressures from NYG without taking a single sack.
He was decisive in the pocket and showed off a strong arm on intermediate throws. It won’t be easy, but ATL is in the driver’s seat and will hope that Drake London’s hamstring is 100% going into this showdown with the Commanders.
NFC Contender #7: Washington Commanders
Washington pulled out the fourth-quarter heroics as Jayden Daniels led the Commanders to 22 points in the final frame for a 36-33 comeback win. He threw for five total touchdowns and led the team with 81 rushing yards. The team benefitted from Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts exiting due to an early concussion, with Kenny Pickett unable to capitalize on drives into Washington territory.
You have to be both good and lucky to make it through the NFL and now the Commanders sit at 10-5 with the NFC East still within technical reach. But they’ll focus on clinching a playoff berth first, which they can do with a win over Atlanta next Sunday night.
NFC Contender #8: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers lost control of their playoff destiny with a heartbreaking loss to Dallas on Sunday night. They had multiple chances to win but Jourdan Lewis wrestled away a would-be touchdown to Jalen McMillan for an interception and then Rachaad White fumbled on their final drive.
There were many mistakes but the result is needing to beat Carolina and New Orleans while Atlanta must drop their game to either Washington or Carolina. Can they get the help they need and get the NFC South back? Their range of outcomes goes from the No. 3 seed to missing the playoffs.
NFC Contender #9: Seattle Seahawks
Seattle nearly beat an NFC heavyweight in the Vikings after holding a 24-20 lead with four minutes left, but a late Justin Jefferson TD proved the difference in the 27-24 loss. The Seahawks finish out on the road against the Bears and Rams with a 14% playoff probability per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Aside from the obvious need to win both games, Seattle also genuinely needs the Cardinals to beat the Rams this week to make Week 18 a win-and-in tilt that doesn’t rely on tiebreakers. If the Rams defeat Arizona then both LAR and SEA could end with a head-to-head split and 4-2 division records, with the Rams heavily controlling the common game strength of victory. Can Seattle thread the needle and find themselves atop the NFC West?
