RADIO
With one round left in the 124th U.S. Open, where carnage has loomed over every shot, the marathon now turns into a sprint for the year's third major with Bryson DeChambeau out in front by three shots over Matthieu Pavon, Rory McIlroy, and Patrick Cantlay. The baked-out edition in 2014 never reared its head this time around, as many expected. Although having seen the number of good approach shots and drives that end up in cruel places, it's easy to see why. Golf at Pinehurst -- especially the famed No. 2 course -- is not for the faint of heart. Those clamoring to see the world's best make utter messes on some holes certainly got their wish.
Through three rounds, collective ball striking on approach and off the tee have been the overwhelming stat lines thus far. From a fantasy and betting perspective, the unfortunate part of accounting for luck -- or lack thereof -- is the ultimate wrench in the wheel. Sure, the game is undoubtedly tied to the "L" word in some form on almost every shot, but at a place where three inches can be the difference between fairway or unplayable situations and everything in between, the word luck is used much too frequently for my liking at a major championship. The exciting part, though, is we have the previous three rounds as a sample size to find guys that have shown some level of comfort to have confidence in. With the wind picking up through this Father's Day weekend, expect things to be as unpredictable as they have been with most players simply trying to hang on for dear life. This is the United States Open after all!
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. The usual strategy is finding guys who played well the previous day(s), particularly the players who have shown strong ability with their irons. However, it's also important to make roster decisions that give you ownership leverage over other players in your contest. This is usually done by taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Even without a completely dried-out surface, the green complexes and accuracy importance at Pinehurst No. 2 are as dastardly green as they are brown. The biggest difference this time is the receptiveness of greens being much softer than we've come to expect at the national open.
They reward well-struck/well-placed shots; however, the targets are so small that anything less than perfect is at the mercy of the slopes. The front nine has played host to the most fireworks of both the wanted and unwanted variety this week. Those looking for tee time and weather advantages will have slightly better conditions in the early groups, but nothing that should be the end-all be-all.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys that have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point. Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Thanks to a triple bogey on hole No. 13 today, Ludvig Aberg wound up with a three-over-par 73 to fall five shots behind to start tomorrow's final round. Whether you want to point to his first start in a U.S. Open as an excuse or the fact he was heckled constantly with "USA" chants in favor of the new-found popularity that DeChambeau has found, it is expected for him to blink at some point, no matter his incredibly high skill level.
However, I think tomorrow's round puts him in a much more comfortable situation a few groups removed from the lead and playing with someone with much less fan appeal in Hideki Matsuyama. He is third in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.40) and fifth in strokes gained on approach (+1.57).
Other options: Bryson DeChambeau just feels due, doesn't he?
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Tony Finau has owned Pinehurst No. 2 through the first 12 holes. For some reason, he has flamed out down the stretch; playing it in a combined -4 compared to +3 on holes 13 through 18. I've managed to watch the starts of his rounds this week only to be shocked at how far he's been from the lead by day's end.
However, the ball striking has been exquisite all week as he ranks fifth in the field in strokes gained from tee to green (+2.93). At six shots back, he'll likely need some help in front of him to contend for the win, but a steady round to end his tournament feels like a strong possibility.
It's the toughest hole on the course!
Tony Finau moves to one stroke off the lead with a birdie on 2. pic.twitter.com/Jh0c4UU82O
— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 15, 2024
Other Options: Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa
$8,000+
Favorite Play: It worries me some about Tyrrell Hatton being able to keep his head on straight being on the first page of the leaderboard, but just as he pointed out earlier this week in a news conference, the U.S. Open has a way of turning even the sturdiest of heads loose; just ask Scottie Scheffler. The iron play was sluggish to start the week for Hatton but has improved each day as he gained +2.87 strokes in his third round.
His real strength has been off the tee and around the green, ranking third in the field in strokes gained tee to green (+3.61) and fifth in strokes gained around the green (+1.51). Say what you want about the LIV product as a whole, but individual talent is heavy in that group. Hatton is one of the more slept-on guys who has proven more than he's been given credit for over the last few seasons.
Other Options: Russell Henley, Corey Conners
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Aaron Rai had a horrible second round that derailed his chances of staying in the mix of things, but he played well in the first and third rounds to be excited for him to finish off the final day in money-winning fashion. The ninth-ranked player on tour in driving accuracy (72.61%) hasn't had his best stuff off the tee this week. And as the seventh-ranked player in strokes gained on approach (+0.668), he's also left much to be desired in that department. However, I'm riding with the season-long steadiness over the one-round blip.
Other Options: Brian Harman, Taylor Pendrith, Denny McCarthy
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Mark Hubbard seems to bring his game to every event. Sure, he's not kicking down doors and taking over golf tournaments, but for someone who lives in the bottom fourth of DFS draft boards, he's been as consistent as they come. He's currently inside the top 15 in the field in strokes gained around the green and putting through three rounds. After a poor opening round, Hubbard has found something in his swing that gained +0.74 strokes on approach and +1.23 strokes off the tee in today's round. In this price range, a guy who can hang on for the wild ride that can be Pinehurst No. 2 is a valuable asset.
Mark Hubbard went from a near hole-out to off the green. 😳
Welcome to the U.S. Open. pic.twitter.com/fvbUQJSSNP
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) June 14, 2024
Other Options: Davis Thompson
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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