RADIO
The PGA Tour returns to the country that gave the world ice hockey, peanut butter, and IMAX Theatres for the RBC Canadian Open. Through three rounds, the leaderboard has seen a heavy amount of turbulence with most players struggling to keep the hammer down from round to round. The third round saw Ryan Fox and Robert Macintyre exchange blows that unfortunately happened in different parts of the round for both players and ended with Macintyre up four shots over Fox, Mackenzie Hughes, and Ben Griffin heading into the final day. A run of unconscious golf through holes 14-17 at -4 under par shot the Scotsman up the leaderboard down the stretch to end the day's play.
Putting has been the ultimate decider, with four out of the top six being ranked inside the top 10 in strokes gained putting. The interesting nuance from most tour stops is the stressed importance around the green instead of on approach. Sure, shots into greens typically carry more weight than anything, however, the top two players on the leaderboard--Mackenzie Hughes and Bobby Mac--don't rank well against the field in strokes gained on approach (Hughes 32nd and Macintyre 61st). Comparatively, four of the top five players are inside the top 15 in strokes gained around the green. With the forecasted weather for Sunday's round, I expect this abnormality in statistical data to continue.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. The usual strategy is finding guys who played well the previous day(s), particularly the players who have shown strong ability with their irons. However, it's also important to make roster decisions that give you ownership leverage over other players in your contest. This is usually done by taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions & Tee Times
It will be a game of two halves with what Mother Nature has in store and will force DFS players to pick their poison between rain or wind. One isn't necessarily better or worse than the other, but identifying guys who have shown strength in the weather they could find themselves playing in tomorrow is a good starting point for lineup builds. Even with the added drizzle or uptick in wind, I don't expect the scoring average to change much from what we've seen over the first three days.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys that have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday, and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point. Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, and finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Sam Burns has been quiet since his opening round 63, mostly thanks to a putter that has not shown up for him since. The whopping +3.31 strokes he gained on the greens on Thursday took a nosedive to -2.26 on Friday before settling back down to +0.84 today. For someone who is striking the ball as well as Burnsie is, I have to believe things will click sooner or later on the final day. There's no better place to do that than a leaderboard full of unproven names that have tended to shift quickly so far this week.
Sam Burns’ second eagle in six holes.
Decent start. pic.twitter.com/vQVhlqBTkK
— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) May 30, 2024
Other Options: Rory McIlroy
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Tom Kim fired an excellent -5 under par round today, putting him into a tie for 11th going into the final day. His ball striking has been much improved compared to his season-long stats, ranking 29th in the field in strokes gained on approach and 11th in strokes gained off the tee. Hopefully, +3.11 strokes gained on the greens today will mean at least some of the same tomorrow, especially if his impeccable short game stays strong.
Other Options: Aaron Rai, Robert Macintyre, Shane Lowry
$8,000+
Favorite Play: If I still had to pick a Canadian, Corey Conners is still who I would choose at this point. His iron play is as good as ever, ranking fourth in the field in strokes gained on approach. The solid stats we're used to seeing off the tee have been lacking this week but things have steadily improved over the first three rounds. It will come down to putting for Conners, as it usually does, however, with nothing to lose and everything to gain, things should certainly be boom or bust tomorrow for the Canadian.
Other Options: Maverick McNealy, Ben Griffin
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Joel Dahmen started today's round with a double bogey shot to the manhood, then followed it up with a bogey and suddenly found himself two over through three, however, by the fifth hole he had made up for both with an eagle and birdie on holes four and five. This is a different JD than we've seen most of the season, and coming back to post a -1 under-par score for the day by birdieing three of his final seven holes takes some real grit. To the field, he ranks inside the top 10 in strokes gained putting and off the tee and is ranked 19th in strokes gained on approach.
Hated it ... hated it ... loved it.
From 208 yards away, @Joel_Dahmen knocks it to a foot for a tap-in eagle @RBCCanadianOpen. pic.twitter.com/VavM2Zy6Rq
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 1, 2024
Other Options: Kevin Yu, Beau Hossler
$6,000+
Favorite Play: I hope Adrien Dumont De Chassart is the longest name I ever need to spell for this weekly piece--or any article for that matter--but it is for a good reason. The Belgian has done very little since his opening round 67 (-3 under), however, he ended today's round ranking inside the top 30 in strokes gained on approach and around the green for the day while also ranking 30th in strokes gained putting through three rounds. He's much too far back to make a run at the lead, but will hopefully provide enough of a floor to build the rest of a lineup on.
Other Options: Kelly Kraft
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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