RADIO
The PGA Tour is back in Utah for the first time since 1963 for the Black Desert Championship. One round is left to decide the winner of the season's third Fall Series event. Matt McCarty holds a two-stroke lead with 18 holes to play over a slew of names, including some recognizable faces and others who aren't so familiar.
The flat stick has determined the leaderboard, as six of the top seven are inside the top 10 in strokes gained putting. At a resort-style venue like this, the variation in hole strategies means that ball-striking prowess takes somewhat of a backseat with players much more inclined to play to their strengths given the multiple ways to play each hole. So finding guys rolling the rock is the ultimate play this week as long as they're hitting it well enough to give themselves a fighting chance.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but, roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Players have been tearing this place up, with Adam Svensson nearly carding a 59 on Thursday. The weather has been a non-factor and most of the lower rounds have come from within the middle of the pack nearly all of the last three days, which should serve as a good starting point when looking for players to fill your Showdown roster.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Seamus Power started the week horribly on the greens, turning in a -1.83 strokes gained putting on Thursday's round. However, the Irishman has gained over two strokes with the flat stick in his last two rounds and is 13th in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.21).
He finds himself in the sweet spot of T36, going off in the middle of the day, where most of the low scores this week have come from.
Other Options: Beau Hossler
$9,000+
Favorite Play: It's hard to say Matthew McCarty isn't used to winning by now, although it must be noted that his three wins in 2024--which were all accomplished in six weeks--have come on the Korn Ferry Tour. However, those wins are what have afforded him this opportunity.
It helps that this venue is set up closer to the "minor league" tour than a rigorous PGA Tour setup. His comfortability through three rounds is evidence of that, as McCarty ranks fourth in the field in strokes gained around the green (+0.86), seventh in strokes gained putting (+1.93), and eighth in strokes gained tee to green (+2.35)
Lefty takeover 🏌️♂️
@MattMcCarty21 and @JoeHighsmith33 will tee it up in the final pairing tomorrow @BDChampionship. pic.twitter.com/ayauEdA9a0— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 13, 2024
Other Options: Stephan Jaeger, Erik Van Rooyen
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Harry Hall is crushing it on the greens at the Black Desert Resort, as he's the third-best player in the field in strokes gained putting (+2.25).
A poor ball-striking performance in the second round stunted his chances of realistically being in contention tomorrow, but he's been serviceable in those areas the other two days, especially off the tee.
Other Options: Harris English, Ben Kohles, Doug Ghim
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Matthias Schmid and Daniel Berger both got off to slow starts on Thursday, but have since caught fire with back-to-back 67s for Schmid and 65s for Berger. I normally only pick one player to lead each group, but these two guys are too close to call one or the other.
Both have similar strokes gained metrics across the board aside from Berger having more success with the irons and Schmid having better luck off the tee.
Made cut and looking for more.
Currently No. 129 in the #FedExCup Fall Standings, Daniel Berger is ready to build momentum heading into the weekend @BDChampionship. pic.twitter.com/HDYAFCMIZC
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 12, 2024
Other Options: Nick Taylor
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Not to sound like a broken record, but I like Wesley Bryan for a second straight week. He was close to not being an option, as the 34-year-old had to make an eagle putt on 18 early Saturday morning to end his second round and make the cut on the number.
Since his opening round that saw him make two double bogeys en route to a +1 over, 72, he has produced solid rounds of 65-67 and has yielded top 30 strokes gained metrics across the board over those two rounds.
Other Options: Chad Ramey
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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