Round 3 Showdown - 2022 Mayakoba Classic

November 4, 2022

Byron's top PGA live bets, rankings and PGA DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings. The Round 3 showdown slate on 10/14/22 for the 2022 Mayakoba Classic.

This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. Please note that although I have power rankings in the below screenshot, they are derived from basic stats from KFT and PGA Tours, in order to try compare players as fairly as possible. Don't take them for gospel.

My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article we are going to break down the previous round's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.

The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range, who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitated towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.

R2 Summary

These were the 14 highest owned golfers in a $1 20-max DFS contest. They averaged 40 points, while the field averaged 38 points.

These were the 16 golfers that scored 50+ points (58.4 average), with Henley and Harman the only two golfers more than 11% owned (6% average ownership). One of the least predictable things in life is a single round of golf, ask Harry Higgs.

Ballers

With this article still in its infancy, we are adding and editing ideas each week. This is going to be the standard color code for ownership going forward and can be thought of as a traffic light. The player's name highlighted in these colors reflects these expected ownership ranges.

We mentioned that we like to target golfers who played poorly, but that doesn't mean we need to entirely ignore those that played well. We can use a few of these guys in our lineups still, but we want to have the majority of our player pool coming from the Crawlers who managed to drag their round to the 18th hole, hoping that the next day would be better.

Crawlers

This list is comprised of players who played poorly. There are definitely a few Crawlers I will be looking to target.

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Round 3 Power Rankings

The Chalk Squad

These golfers should be the most owned tomorrow based off of their round 1 performance.

Chalk I have my eye on:

$10,000: Viktor Hovland (His last two R3s here were 62 and 63. He is due for a super low round and Collin at -8 should help with ownership a little)

$9,000:  Taylor Montgomery (Look at that R3 scoring average)

$8,000: Fade Range.

$7,000: Fade Range.

$6,000+: Fade Range.

The Pivot People

These golfers entered the tournament with high expectations, only to lose strokes to the field, making them less appetizing than the Chalk Squad but still have potential.

People I have my eye on:

$10,000:

$9,000: Not sure I like Seamus's R3 history.

$8,000: Brendon Todd

$7,000: Spaun, Riley (may land up being chalky at this price), Huh

$6,000:

The Leverage Lads

This bunch of benchwarmers, with sunscreen not entirely absorbed by their skin, sneakers with shoelaces long enough to tie down goliath, all have the potential to have their Hollywood moment tomorrow, completely outperforming their baseline for a day, while hardly finding themselves in anybody's player pool because, well, the beginning of this massive sentence explains that. They have the opportunity to be legendary tomorrow, while providing us with massive leverage on the field.

Legends I have my eye on:

All of the guys in the below image. The power ranking is just a guideline, that struggles to understand that Danny Lee plays some of his best golf at this course. Don't get put off by a poor power ranking, particularly if their price is $6,300.

Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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