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Brian Harman has seemingly signaled the aliens to come take over the earth, as that space-ship putter of his is on auto-pilot and sinking putts to the tune of +8.5 strokes putting. Tommy Fleetwood is also playing some fantastic golf, but he is -5, five shots back of Harman. Only six shots separate T4 and those that made the cut on the number. If Harman faulters over the weekend, anybody could win this thing if they get into a 36-hole birdie trance.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric. More often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. Every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership
Going into Round 3, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 3 Strategy
With weather looming in the PM those that made the cut are rolling out off both tees in threes for the second Saturday in a row. I was looking forward to trying to leverage the Scottish weather to our advantage tomorrow but with these tee times that is now a thing of the past. We will have to try and find ownership leverage as our key difference maker for R3.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Cameron Smith is going to be my favorite play, as his putter really has not got into stride just yet. He is one of the leading birdie makers when that putter performs which is bound to happen either tomorrow or the next day! His price and lack luster performance so far will keep him in the single digit ownership and he could be the leading scorer tomorrow with ease.
Other options: Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland
$9,000+
Favorite play: Xander Schauffele is one of those guys who usually has that one round that removes him from contention (today), but then has that one round that is so good that it almost gets him back in the mix (tomorrow?). He graded out well pre tournament and hopefully we get one of those spike rounds like we saw in R1 of the US Open.
Other options: Tyrrell Hatton, Rickie Fowler
$8,000+
Favorite play: Bryson DeChambeau is more than capable of dismantling a long wet golf course with his length. His price and position down the leaderboard will be more than enough reason to have him as leverage with low ownership and slate breaking potential when he gets rolling.
Other options: Adam Scott
$7,000+
Favorite play: Sungjae Im has a R3 SG average of +2.7, and if you look at the last 8 Saturday round's he has played, have averaged +3.5 strokes. His worst two performances in that run were two +0.8 SG total rounds, with the other 6 rounds gaining no less than 2 strokes. If this run of continues on Saturday this $7,700 golfer can break this slate.
Other options: Corey Conners, Robert MacIntyre, Byeong Hun An, Richard Bland, Padraig Harrington
$6,000+
Favorite play: Andrew Putnam is $6,700 and is very capable of a spike putting performance that can garner some birdie in a hurry. He also has a solid R3 strokes gained average for somebody in this price range. When he makes the weekend, his Saturday's usually provide a solid return for your showdown investment.
Other options: J.T. Poston, Alex Noren, Zach Johnson, Victor Perez, Alex Fitzpatrick
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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