RADIO
The cut has been made an the entire field sits within 7 shots of the lead. Two of our suggestions from yesterday's article sit atop the leaderboard with Tyrrell Hatton shooting -6 and Nate Lashley (not a typo) shooting -5 and continuing to go scorched earth with the irons, leading the next best iron player by a full shot, gaining just shy of 6 strokes on approach through 2 days. Wyndham Clark is making himself real comfortable at the top of the leaderboard lately, as he is the third golfer tied for the lead.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric. More often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. Every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
Round 2 Analysis
Round 2 Best Scores
Round 2 Ownership
Going into Round 3, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 3 Strategy
There really doesn't appear to be that much of a weather advantage tomorrow.
I learnt my lesson about wind at Pebble Beach. Just because the wind is heavier in the afternoon doesn't mean that it will necessarily be more difficult as that wind blowing in the advantageous direction on the scoreable holes can make them even easier than usual. It looks like the morning wave will get lighter winds from the NW and then it flips at about 11AM to blow from the SW (this is the weather after all so who really knows). But, if the wind is blowing weaker in the morning, we want those golfers, who have been playing bad and will naturally be low owned as a result of this. If these golfers get easier scoring conditions and lower ownership, that is how we win GPPs.
Looking at how the wind affects the 5 holes that are easiest score on:
First three hours of the morning (green arrows):
- 7 - Down wind par 5
- 8 - Helps hit the fade into that driveable par 4
- 10 - Down wind par 5
- 14 and 15 will most likely have the orange wind by the time most AM golfers get there, but the earliest tee times will experience head winds off the tee on the driveable 14th and par 5 15th. But remember, its going to be a 7mph vs 15mph gusts
Once the wind flips (orange):
- 7, 8, and 10 lose their helpful winds
- 14 is a cross wind blowing balls away from the water and will make pitch shots from the right easier
- 15 will have the 2nd shot into the wind and tee shots will be tougher to keep down the left side
*These are not the strongest winds in the world, but I had fun drawing arrows on the course map. Who knows what happens, but it appears guys who go off early should have the very best conditions regardless of how much of an edge that is.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the PGA TOUR SHOWDOWN $500 HYBRID [3 ENTRY MAX], which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Rory McIlroy made the cut on the number and played really badly today. One of Rory's victories at Quail came after making the cut on the number so he is prone for a bounce back round in some soft, calm conditions tomorrow morning with an early tee time. The pre-event favorite at 1/3 of the ownership of the chalkiest guys in the field should provide some excitement in our lineups.
"Patrick Cantlay: When almost each of the four key showdown metrics is 2+, we are going to play the guy. He makes birdies at an elite rate and graded out fantastically pre-tournament, and his weighted good shot rate is one of the best in the field." We are going back to Patty Ice in R3, hopefully with less opening bogeys tomorrow.
$9,000+
Tony Finau averages over 2 strokes per round on Saturday's and that leads the field in that stat. The Mexico Open winner gets a 9:15 tee time and will hopefully be single digit ownership.
Cameron Young refuses to score on the par 5s this week, making birdie on only 2 of the 6 easier holes this week. If we see that short game spike tomorrow, we know he is one of the premier ball strikers in the field.
Viktor Hovland played a little better than Young today, but both have not really played to their potential so far. Hovland can make birdies in bunches and is one of the best iron players in the field too. Just like Young, if that short game shows some life tomorrow, we got a shot.
$8,000+
Sahith Theegala had a rather poor round today but made a miracle 4 on his final hole to avoid missing the cut. Sahith is capable of the low round of the day and we get some ownership relief after a bad round in anticipation of a bounce back tomorrow.
Max Homa is the opposite of Sahith and will be a little more chalky after his "professional" first 12 holes, going level par over that stretch "without his best stuff / A game" according to the broadcast. He then birdied 4 of his final six holes and sits three behind the leaders on a course he has won at before. Expect him to edge closer to the top of the leaderboard tomorrow.
Tom Kim doesn't grade out that well from 150+ in the rough. That is okay, as he is usually one of the more accurate drivers of the ball, leaning on that exceptional iron play from the fairway. After failing to birdie any of the par 5s yesterday, he birdied two of them today, but also made 5 bogeys in his round. If we can limit the damage and make some birdies tomorrow, hopefully Kim can climb that leaderboard too.
$7,000+
We noticed that Akshay was prone for a big day in R2 and he made 2 eagles, 2 birdies and 4 bogeys today. R3's version of Akshay is Keegan Bradley who has the 3rd best R3 scoring average of those who made the cut. Expect fire works from Bad Brad on Saturday.
Taylor Moore and Denny McCarthy will be two chalkier plays in the $7k range both going off a little later. Denny has made some massive moves up the leaderboard on Saturday's recently and we don't expect one of the best putters in the world to not do that again. Taylor Moore is just playing really good golf right now and provides some value at $7,900. Nick Hardy grades out as one of the best iron players in the field and if his putter can get hot he will have countless birdie looks. He also grades out as the best leverage option in the model.
Keith Mitchell, Emilliano Grillo, Stephen Jaeger and Seamus Power will all be sub 10% ownership and most of them will be going off before 10AM.
$6,000+
Sam Stevens is easily the best R3 scorer in the $6k range, while Mark Hubbard ... mmmmm... the numbers about *Mark Hubbard* make a lot of sense but there is a good chance he shows up to the course hungover tomorrow after an ace today. We are going to call an audible and just scratch him from the player pool. Congrats on the Ace, though, Mark!!!
Webb Simpson shot -4 today and has been showing signs of resurgence lately. He has insane upside at $6,700 around a course he really fancies. Trey Mullinax has the 4th best R4 scoring of the $6k bunch and is the 4th best iron player in the model. Callum Tarren is a $6,100 option who is capable of striking his irons with the best of them.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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