RADIO
Byron's round 3 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for The 2023 PGA Championship. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and rankings for DraftKings, FanDuel.
Scottie Scheffler reminds me of the 9.5/10 desk I just assembled this afternoon. He has all the parts/shots with very simple assembly instructions aka pound fairways and greens. The magnetic attraction between the hex keys (that came with the desk) and variety of screws holding the desk together remind me of his high-quality short game, with his ball always seeming to be attracted to 5 feet or less of the hole when he does miss the green. The reason I gave the product 9.5 and not 10 is because the 100+ screws that spun securely into their desired slot, had to be done so with either my fingers or a hex key - which left my drill sidelined. Scheffler's putting is basically a hex key, as it gets the job done at the end of the day, but it could be done with much more ease if it allowed a Dewalt to efficiently enhance the assembly process. I guess what I am trying to say is that Scottie Scheffler finds himself in a tie for first in yet another major, with Corey Conners and Viktor Hovland.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric. More often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. Every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
Round 2 Analysis
Best Scores
Four of the top five scores were from the AM wave with 7 of the top 12 scores being AM.
Ownership
AM seemed to garner the most ownership yet again, with scores being half a stroke lower in the AM.
Going into Round 3, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 3 Strategy
The weather doesn't look there will be much of wave advantage. With rain forecasted throughout the day, maybe the greens soften up as the day goes on, potentially giving the afternoon wave an edge of some sort, potentially.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the PGA SHOWDOWN $10K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY], which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Both Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele graded out extremely well pre-event and have two rather disappointing rounds so far. They should be much less owned than Rory and Scottie, with just about as much upside as the two that have played well so far. Rory had two tee shots that could have very easily gone out of bounds and landed up shooting -1 on those two holes.
$9,000+
Patrick Cantlay put together a very solid round today and we are hoping he carries that momentum into R3. Collin Morikawa tends to produce much better short game results in majors and if he can start firing on the ball striking front, we could see him go very low tomorrow.
Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas and Tony Finau will all three be rather low owned for R3 as they have played really poorly so far. When Smith was on the PGA tour he was one of the leading birdie makers and is a hot putter away from going really low if he can keep his ball in play a little better tomorrow. We know JT is due to charge up the leaderboard either tomorrow or Sunday, while Finau entered the week as the best iron player in the field and has been atrocious on approach so far, losing the third most strokes on approach of the cut makers.
$8,000+
With so many low owned $9k guys making our R3 player pool, we are going light on the $8k guys. Tyrrell Hatton fought back to make the cut on the number, shooting -2 in R2. Tommy Fleetwood has one of the best R3 strokes gained averages of the entire field. He is due to surge up a leaderboard on Saturday, while Hideki Matsuyama usually does his best work on a Sunday, but we are going to try our luck with the Japanese star on Saturday, just in case he gets his days mixed up.
$7,000+
Sahith Theegala has shown the ability to go crazy over the weekend, with his two most notable weekend runs coming at the Masters and RBC Heritage. Patrick Reed has the kind of short game that could see a few missed greens turn into chip-in birdies while the putter is capable of catching fire at any minute. Taylor Moore and Denny McCarthy both can find themselves going unconscious with the putter too, and after making the cut maybe Moore's flat stick shows some life and Denny can put a round together where he isn't hemorrhaging strokes off the tee and around the greens.
Tom Hoge is a risky play, but we know he is a world class iron player and is relatively cheap at $7,100. Hayden Buckley is phenomenal off the tee, which can really spring board the rest of his game if he gets some momentum rolling.
$6,000+
With so many $9k guys making our lineups, we need some salary saves with Dean Burmester, J.T. Poston, Adam Hadwin and Stephan Jaeger all getting priced at $6,900. Jaeger sits in 30th spot having gained the 5th most strokes ball striking of the cut makers. Watch out if that putter starts to do what it did last Sunday at the Byron Nelson.
Chris Kirk can get things rolling at any given minute and for somebody who is typically a decent iron player, he has not really performed on that front yet. Thriston Lawrence has made his second cut in his second major and is a three time winner on the DPWT in the last 2 seasons. Alex Smalley is a home town hero who is priced at $6,200 and somehow made the cut losing 2 strokes putting in his first two rounds.
Featured Group Matchup Bets
If you are a golf nerd like me and land up watching a lot of the featured group coverage on ESPN+, this new segment of the article is going to consist of Maniac Magic by making a bet on each matchup of the featured group just to have a little sweat while watching the morning coverage. If you are looking for much more strategic and reliable matchups, check out @TeeOffSports R3 matchups here where he has two matchups for R3. This part of the article is straight-up degenerate as we are forcing pocket money plays simply to enhance our golf viewing experience.
Phil Mickleson +135 over Tyrrell Hatton
Phil has been really impressive on approach while his driver and putter have been leaking strokes so far. The PGA Champ from two years ago is not afraid to show the youngsters that he still has it even with grey hair sneaking out the side of his cap more and more each round. Tyrrell Hatton is capable of a massive blow up round at any minute which means Phil may not even have to play that well to cash this bet at +135.
Jon Rahm -185 Justin Thomas -225 Parlay: +114
Although we are playing Cam Smith in showdown, we are hoping that he can have a ridiculous day with the putter if he gives himself enough birdie looks. However, Jon Rahm's ball striking floor and consistency is miles ahead of Smith and Rahm has lost two strokes putting so far with his ball striking not nearly getting into third gear yet. Zach Johnson has done nothing spectacular making the cut on the number, but JT is just so much better at golf than his Ryder Cup captain, despite their +5 scores stating otherwise.
Jordan Spieth vs Lee Hodges
The books, despite robbing us blind on a weekly basis, are too chicken to hang a line out there as Spieth is one long iron out of the cabbage away from a WD with his wrist taped up and forcing him to miss the Byron Nelson.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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