RADIO
Cameron Young is leading the field in putting, which he credits to a change in golf ball that mostly affects the spin and flight of his driver and irons. Yet, he is having one of his best putting weeks? Make it make sense?! Just a friendly reminder that we are out here trying to roster and bet on golfers who are changing golf balls like underpants and putters like socks, which makes me wonder how we actually ever correctly predict how these guys are going to play. More on this at the end of the article.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric. More often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. Every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership
Going into Round 3, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 3 Strategy
Not sure why we are going off in 3s from 10:55 instead of 2s off of the first tee all day as we had only 69 golfers make the cut, which is 4 more than the minimum number allowed through to the cut. No weather edge going off of both tees and even if they were going off only the first tee, it looks really nice all day.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the PGA TOUR SHOWDOWN $4K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY], which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: The only play we are going to be rolling with in the $10k range is Russell Henley. He should come in round about half the ownership (T45) of Young, McCarthy, and Schenk, who are all inside the to-5 on the leaderboard. Henley has been playing great golf this year and is the only golfer to have made the cut with a R3 strokes gained average above 2, which is almost half a stroke better than the 2nd best R3 SG average. If we can get that putter to start cooking, he can go very low tomorrow.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Eric Cole is projected to score the most points in the $9k range as he is a bridie machine and despite struggling in R3, his T29 position heading into the weekend should have most of the pressure off of him, allowing him to potentially display one of those spike putting rounds that has him ranked 3rd in my model for that stat. His "poor" play so far should help keep ownership around half of the majority of the $10k range.
Stephan Jaeger sits all the way down in T45 and actually gained strokes putting today, miraculously making the cut despite losing -2 strokes tee to green. Seamus Power has been so erratic the first two rounds on route to his -7 T18. If we can see a bit more consistency from over him over the weekend, those stretches of no birdies may no longer show up on the Irishman's scorecard.
$8,000+
Favorite play: "Chris Kirk has some really impressive R3 scores under his belt and if he can lean on a spike putting round tomorrow, he is playing well enough to go back to at this price point and form. He is not the worst birdie maker in this price range either." - Rocket Mortgage Classic. He went on to gain 2 strokes on the field and shoot -5, and is the person we referenced being 0.4 strokes behind Henley in R2 despite owning the 2nd-best SG average on Saturdays, which we are hoping to have as a starting point for him tomorrow around Deere Run.
Mark Hubbard is a solid cash game play at his price point and will be one of the golfers we eat the chalk on tomorrow as his $8,100 price tag does not justify the nuclear level his irons can approach (5th in the field in weighted good shot %). Hubbard's ownership can be watered down if you pair him up with Matt Kuchar, who is also a predominant R3 scorer (5th) and has yet to really see that putter roll in those mid-range putts that his stellar wedge play should provide over the weekend.
$7,000+
Favorite play: Kevin Yu is one of the most explosive golfers in the field. He has massive length and accuracy off the tee and can get scorching hot on approach. He was very popular a week or two ago but some lack luster results since have seen that shine wear off. After a -4 in R2 and with the putter having gained strokes in both rounds, all we need is that ball striking sizzle to return for a slate breaking round at $7,200 and 5% ownership.
With minimal $10k players in our pool, we can load up on this $7k range after starting with Henley and/or two or three $9k/$8k options. Akshay Bhatia has one more round to explode before Sunday roles round, where he has averaged -0.75 strokes in his six Sunday rounds so far. Grayson Sigg, Andrew Novak and Nate Lashley are a few more guys I will be looking to lean on as price tags get closer to $6k range. A random flier will also be Jonas Blixt, who was all over the place in R2 but played really well in R1.
$6,000+
Favorite play: Harry Higgs seems to relish a Saturday round of golf, averaging +1.88 in the 6 Saturday rounds he has made it to in his 12 starts this year. When he is playing well and makes the cut, he tends to continue that into R3 before blowing up Sundays. He can roll them in from anywhere and is a birdie machine when he is feeling it. $6,800 for the 11th best birdie maker in the field seems like a very affordable entry fee to the Big Rig rollercoaster.
Aaron Baddeley and James Hahn are going to be two other options in the upper $6k range, while Geoff Ogilvy is going to be our punt play at $6,100 if you are looking to stack studs at the top.
Golfers Are Human Too
As somebody who frequents Twitter a little more than I should, I somehow stumbled into a conversation with Troy Merrit, who has now made back-t0-back cuts, getting his year long total to 3... he made the very first cut of the year at the Sony, as @CS_Murph pointed out in teh tweet below, and then developed the YIPS.
We bet on these guys and throw them into DK lineups, with, at times, very little regard for who they are as people, as we simply use their stats to derive an opinion of them. If you follow the three or so quote tweets he did to my each of my responses to him, I find myself really coming to terms with the emotions and frustration that professional athletes and golfers deal with when the simplest of actions can become a debilitating area of your game.
It was just really cool to have Troy open up about how frustrating it is that he doesn't have the YIPS in practice rounds or Pro-Ams on Wednesday, but the moment he tees it up in a tournament it rears its ugly head out of nowhere. In R2 he shot -4 despite losing 2.5 strokes putting. It was cool to interact with a professional golfer on twitter for a few messages, but the anguish and relentless disappointment he shares in the few tweets below are even cooler, as it takes a lot of courage to talk about having the YIPS as a professional golfer.
I am now a massive Troy Merrit fan and really hope to see him get through this and back to playing some great golf!
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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