RADIO
Scottie Scheffler is a problem. He gained strokes putting today. In fact, he gained TWO strokes putting. Why is that significant? Well, in Scheffler's 79 shot link rounds in 2023 he gained 2+ strokes putting ... three times (aka 4% of the time). Funnily enough, all three of those instances he gained 3+ strokes putting. If he continues to putt this way ... we are going to have a historic year of golf ahead of us from the World No. 1, with no Jon Rahm to rival him in any of the signature events either.
Today's round was the lowest scoring average in the tournament's history, with Kevin Kisner gracing the commentary booth for his maiden vocal voyage through the golfing airwaves that we have been craving the last 6 or so weeks. In the $5 Single Entry, the top two lineups did not have Tyrrell Hatton, who shot -11 and scored 80.7 points at 11.86% ownership. Matt Fitzpatrick scored 76.25 points and featured in both those lineups at 9.92% ownership. DFS is weird, but this ain't no hobby?
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Takedown Tyrrell
In the round 2 article we wrote up Tyrrell Hatton as our favorite play in the $8k range. Turns out he was a little more owned than we expected, but he still broke the slate and provided immense salary relief while doing so. A great start to the year writing up the highest points scorer in our first showdown article. Too bad our other options of Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa and Russell Henley never really showed up to the party like Scottie and co. did.
"Favorite play: Tyrrell Hatton has the potential to go low if that putter of his taps into that Round 2 strokes gained and approach play that has been rather reliable for most of the last year. Hatton has the ability to shoot the round of the day and is priced at $8,800 with ownership projected to be around -5% after a rather lackluster -4 in Round 1. He has the third-best second round strokes gained average in Round 2. In a 59 person field, we could see him flirting with some REALLY appealing ownership."
Round 2 Analysis
Round 2 DK Points Leaders
10 of the top 13 points scorers were less than 12% owned. Five of the top 6 points scorers were less than 15% owned. The dream is have those five guys somehow show up in your lineups in a massive GPP. Showdown is so fricking volatile people. To quote @degenerate75, don't be scared to play the game! It is a game after all.
Round 2 Ownership Leaders
Scottie ... sheesh dude. Chill out. Please.
Weather & Tee Times
They are sending all 59 guys off both tees. Lame. Not that big of a weather edge with only an hour or two between the first and last tee times.
Round 3 Strategy
With weather edges not so prevalent in Round 3, we get most of the slate to choose from again. Going off of Round 3 projected ownership in the model, we are going to find some golfers with lower than usual ownership who are still projected to be top scorers tomorrow.
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Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes ownership projections, pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, projected points, and GPP/Cash Ratings for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Viktor Hovland grades out about as close to Scottie Scheffler as he will in the model rankings as R3 is Scottie's worst of the 4 and Viktor has actually his outgained Scottie in R3 over the last year. Considering Hovland could come in at about half the ownership as Scottie, let's hope the game theory gods smile down on our guy in R3.
Buy One Get One for the same price as you would without his buddy, but likely with worse results. Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele are paired up tomorrow and I reckon their bromance gets them roaring up the leaderboard together. In my 20 max with about 5,000 entrants, I will be pairing them together despite them both falling in the $10k range. If one plays lights out tomorrow, there's a good chance the other does too.
$9,000+
Favorite play: "Max Homa has one of the best spike putting splits in this field and still shot -6 (T12), losing a stroke on the greens today. He gained just shy of three strokes T2G and if he keeps that up, paired with his incredible putting ability, we could see Maximus cruise up that leaderboard tomorrow at ownership in the mid-teens and potentially 1/3 of Morikawa and/or Scheffler, who I can see most people starting their lineups with tomorrow." - R2 write up... guess what? He lost strokes putting again and pretty much everywhere else as well. Fortune favors the brave. We are running it back with Max at ownership that could push single digits in some contests.
Other options: Max or Bust!
$8,000+
Favorite play: Tommy Driftwood ...oops, I mean, Tommy Fleetwood. He looks like a lost log out there on a course he, of all people in the field likely doesn't deserve to be playing on, without a win on the PGA Tour yet. However, only Sungjae Im has better Saturday strokes gained numbers than Tommy. Single digit ownership for Mr. Saturday? Why not! Mind you, he has lost 6 strokes ball striking so far, but just like Patty X, I reckon Fleetwood playing with Justin Rose tomorrow will lift his spirits and maybe we get a low owned gem from goldilocks.
Other options: Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler.
$7,000+
Favorite play: "Justin Rose showed why he has the eighth-best Round 2 strokes gained average when he shot 40 on the front nine and then doing an express second round Houdini act, making six birdies to shoot 31 (-6) on the back. If you looked at his 18 hole score, things would have looked rather bleh from the Englishman, but if he can keep that momentum heading into the second round, he provides a cheap option with massive upside at sub 10% ownership. He is old school and loves to feel like an underdog, clawing his way up the leaderboard with pride and DK points."
He sucked it up a little today, but ... heard this before? "We running it back!!! Because...Fortune Favors The Brave!!!" AND he will be playing with Tommy, which, I think will have them both tea and crumpeting this course to pieces!
Honorable Mention: Hideki Matsuyama has a round 3 scoring average of 1.65 strokes gained, which is .15 behind Scottie. He LOVES to ball out on Saturdays! My second favorite option!!
Other options: Eric Cole, Sepp Straka, Denny McCarthy, Adam Schenk, Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley. A few more options in this range as you will need multiple $7k guys if you stack Patty X, you are left with $7,425 for your remaining 4 dudes.
$6,000+
Favorite play: "Nick Taylor is absolutely capable of playing inspired golf. Think back to the RBC Canadian Open and the Waste Management Phoenix Open where he hung tough with Scottie. His putter can absolutely get hot at any given moment and after chipping in for eagle on the back 9 today, maybe he carries a bit of that momentum into Round 2, where his scoring average is gross. But this is a no cut event and he is way down the leaderboard. We will choose to ignore that this week." - We running it back again, cause
Other options: Matt Wallace, Mackenzie Hughes
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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