RADIO
Will Zalatoris sits one shot back of the lead in solo seventh. We have six golfers tied for the lead, five of them major winners. Scheffler, Clark, Lowry, Matsuyama, Harman have all won a massive event in the last few years. Russell Henley leads the field in strokes gained putting as the sixth golfer atop the leaderboard. Let's be honest, though, that chameleon he won at the Mayakoba is probably the coolest looking of all the trophies those other five guys have won.
For those of you begging to see carnage, tomorrow will be the Bay Hill demolition derby. Winds blowing at 16 miles per hour making these fairways much harder to hit, leaving long approach shots out of thick rough into greens surrounded by disaster, while dealing with the same wind that put them in that precarious position to start with.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating toward, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
Round 3 Analysis
Winning Lineup
Usually we include a screenshot of the winning lineup from a large contest, but lets go ahead and give our guy, Mo, some credit for stacking his lineup with the five favorite plays from yesterday's article and adding Wyndham Clark to that lineup.
Read your round 2 showdown article and cashed a quick $650. Keep crushing! pic.twitter.com/qoCMfNor4n
— Mo the Uber Driver (@n_stodda) March 8, 2024
Round 2 DK Points Leaders
That afternoon wave absolutely smashing the R2 slate
Round 2 Ownership Leaders
The morning wave absolutely smashing ownership ... expect some popular guys going off early tomorrow to be very owned with tons of wind looming in the afternoon
Weather
Expect. Carnage.
Round 3 Strategy
If we can get a few golfers going off early and mix them in with some guys who we think can play well in the wind. I don't usually do this for this article, but my player pool is going to be exceptionally small tomorrow. I am going to focus in on a few guys I really think can handle the wind and play them in some single entry and 3-max contests.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes ownership projections, pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, projected points, and GPP/Cash Ratings for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY MAX, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite play: Rory McIlroy tends to do his thing in round 3. He is the only person to gain an average of 2+ strokes on Saturday's with the next closest (Sungjae Im) a full 0.3 strokes off Rory. Rory has the length off the tee to keep his floor relatively high and his Irish roots should see him reverting back to his natural ability to just manufacture golf shots to best fit the wind on a given hole. He has struggled with his irons lately, so maybe the wind gets him to reveal his shot-making feel instead of a mechanical mess that we have seen lately.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Justin Thomas / Jordan Spieth are, in my opinion, two of the best wind players in the world. They can hit specific ball flights on demand, some of which seasoned tour pros may never perfect if that's all they practiced. They are just naturally gifted ball strikers and we will need that in abundance tomorrow. They are also two exceptionally good scramblers, another absolutely necessity tomorrow, with green in regulation rates likely to average significantly south of 50%.
Other options: Patrick Cantlay
$8,000+
Favorite play: Sahith Theegala is essentially a Mediterranean Jordan Spieth. His recovery and shot shaping abilities are through the roof, while possesses scrambling ability that could rival JT and Spieth. The natural ball striking talent in the wind may not be in the exact same tier as the two $9k wind wizards, but he can wave a bewildering wand every now and then. He was the only golfer in the horrific weather wave at the WMPO to contend for the win that week.
$7,000+
Favorite play: Chris Kirk is an elite bogey avoidance guy. He hits a ropey draw which is a ball flight least impacted by the wind. He can scramble and is going to be going off a touch earlier at 10:30AM, maybe allowing him to get through the first few holes a little less beaten up than the leaders.
Other options: Sungjae Im seems to have found his game and is incredibly handy in R3. He is also a very good scrambler and feels comfortable around this course.
$6,000+
Favorite play: Mackenzie Hughes was the cheapy week long golfer I stacked my expensive studs on top of at $6,100. He made it through the cut and now we are going to double down on him in conditions that should exacerbate his strengths of scrambling for pars. He goes off at 9:25AM and should see some "reasonable" weather for his first chunk of holes before it really gets windy.
Other options: Denny McCarthy
Live Add
We already have exposure to Jordan Spieth in the T10 / T5 market, so we are going to add Justin Thomas to that mix. We are betting 0.5 units aka $5 of our Breaking $100 budget for a Justin Thomas Top-5 after Round 3 at +450. In fact, would not be surprised to see JT leading the field after the round, so we are going to dabble in the Round 3 leader market for him at +4500 as well, betting $2.50 on him to fly up the leaderboard in the wind tomorrow, despite sitting three shots back of all those major winners.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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